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EPFR - fund flow & allocations data

Quants Corner - The run-up to election day: Reading the fund tea leaves

Quant Corner

With less than a week to go before America chooses a president, what are the flow and return numbers saying? The flows and returns for EPFR-tracked funds, that is. Will incumbent Donald J Trump be re-elected? Or Joe Biden voted into office as the 46th President of the United States? Quantitative analysis of fund flows and returns allows us to craft a new factor, which we are calling the Trump Sensitivity Factor, that unlocks political and future performance signals from the data...

Topic Industry News

IGM FX and Rates

Viewpoint: Lira weakness to persist amid growing geopolitical risks

IGM FX and Rates

USD/TRY has breached the 8 handle for the first time ever. For more read our latest FX Viewpoint Blog >

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

China Insight: Reasons behind sustained RMB appreciation

China Insight

PBOC announced on 10 October that the FX risk reserve ratio for forward USD purchases vs CNY would be lowered from 20% to 0% effective immediately. Before that, PBOC did the same thing in September 2017, leading to a 3-week rally of USD/CNH. However, this time around USD/CNH failed to gain much support from the reduction of the ratio. Instead, the pair resumed downtrend immediately as soon as a 2-day weak rally ended on 13 October. We attribute the sustained RMB appreciation regardless of the said policy change to a couple of factors. First of all, China's balance of payments has been improving more notably this year than in 2017. With China getting the COVID-19 under control more effectively and having its productivity back to normal much earlier, its exports have shown rapid growth since the beginning of summer (chart 1). Meanwhile, from the perspective of capital flow, after experiencing a relatively large capital outflow in March, China saw an encouraging turnaround of the capital flow...

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 10.26.20

The Context

Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

Zephyr Portfolio Analytics, PSN Separately Ma...

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap: COVID-19 Market Edition 10.26.20

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap: COVID-19 Market Edition

The week ahead marks the last week before the Presidential election, and it will be busy, particularly for earnings releases. The majority of the famed “FAANG” stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon.com & Google (Alphabet)) will report their much-anticipated earnings. As for economic data, the red-hot housing market will be on display, with new and pending home sales. We will also see how confident consumers are, as coronavirus cases continue to increase, and we march closer to the election. Finally, business optimism has picked up, which has been evident in an increase in durable goods spending, and we will find out if the spending continued in September. Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap: COVID-19 Market Edition and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

Digital Banking Hub, Digital Banking Research

Will buy-now-pay-later installments transform how consumers use credit cards?

Informa_Affirm_LenderAppSignUp_BNPL

As PayPal and Amazon continue to expand their services within the buy-now-pay-later market, our Head of Omnichannel Experience, Suraya Randawa, asks the question, “Will installment payments transform how consumers use credit cards?” Blog: 3min read

Topic Digital Banking

EPFR - fund flow & allocations data

Emerging Markets Funds retain their momentum

Global Navigator

Investors committed fresh money to both Equity and Bond Funds for the third straight week going into the second half of October despite rising COVID-19 caseloads in Europe and North America, the looming US presidential election and worrying unemployment trends that halted the latest rally in global equity markets. Investors showed the greatest conviction when it came to the US and emerging markets, with US Equity and Bond Funds absorbing a combined $18.7 billion while Emerging Markets Equity Funds extended their longest inflow streak since January and Emerging Markets Bond Funds posted their 14th inflow in the past 15 weeks. The second week of October also saw US Money Market Funds surrender another $26 billion, bringing total outflows from this fund group since mid-May to $225 billion. Over the same period, meanwhile, Europe Money Market Funds have absorbed over $100 billion. Those funds have also seen a modest rotation from UK to Europe ex-UK Money Market Funds as the deadline for a post-Brexit trade agreement between the UK and EU draws closer with limited signs of progress.

Topic Industry News

IGM FX and Rates

Viewpoint: EM Asia FX markets - priming for a Blue Wave

IGM FX and Rates

As the US election draws closer, FX markets have started to aggressively price in the prospect of a Blue Wave, Democrat control of the White House, Congress and Senate; providing a good lead on medium term USD direction. Here, we take a closer look at the outlook for Asian currencies on a Biden win or surprise Trump victory, correlations and what has already been priced in…

Topic Industry News