EPFR Fund Flows

Trade issues, earnings and political risk reclaim center stage from central bankers in early October

By Cameron Brandt 11 Oct 2019

Trade issues, earnings and political risk reclaim center stage from central bankers in early October After a quarter when both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank reversed course on the normalization of their monetary policies, the focus during the first week October shifted from central bankers to the Sino-Chinese trade war, the latest corporate earnings season and impending elections in Spain, Canada and Argentine.

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IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 10.07.19

07 Oct 2019

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Can’t Get Away From The Fed’s Balance Sheet Several of the Fed’s cross-currents will be front and centre as the minutes to the last FOMC emerge (Wednesday). Fed talk during the recent week has softened as the data highlighted the growing threat to the US economy, not just from an international perspective but also domestically. The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral BREXIT, of course, will be uppermost in investors’ minds and though GBP/USD looks to be in relative mid-range right now the downside looks most vulnerable given the current state of play. Turkey’s Economic Miracle Puts Lira Stability at Risk There is a risk that once again the Turkish Lira will become vulnerable to a deterioration in external sentiment, especially as there remains the overhanging geo-political risk of US sanctions, whilst increased tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia could drive up oil prices, adding fuel to a potential deterioration in the current account and inflation. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 10.07.19

By Ryan Nauman 07 Oct 2019

All eyes will be on the renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China during the upcoming week. The stakes are getting higher as we inch towards an election year, global economies are slowing due to trade uncertainties, and political chaos is certain to remain heightened due to the impeachment inquiry. I don’t expect both sides to come to a truce this week, however, any sign of progress will be good, while investors may doubt a deal will ever get done if we have another breakdown in talks. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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EPFR Fund Flows

Money Market Funds close books on record setting quarter

By Cameron Brandt 04 Oct 2019

Money Market Funds close books on record setting quarter The third quarter ended as it began, with EPFR-tracked Equity Funds experiencing net redemptions and Bond Funds net inflows that took their year-to-date totals to -$230 billion and +$481 billion respectively, as investors continue to brace for a cyclical downturn that they have been anticipating for the better part of four years. In recent months their outlook has been shared by the world’s major central banks. Since the beginning of July the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice to sustain the current recovery and the European Central Bank, faced with a sharp slowdown in the German economy, restarted the quantitative easing program it wrapped up at the end of last year. Not surprisingly, mutual fund investors are revisiting their assumptions about yield, global economic growth and inflation. High Yield and Inflation Protected Bond Funds, which both posted collective outflows during 2Q19, saw flows rebound during the third quarter and dedicated Gold Funds recorded their biggest quarterly inflow since 2Q16. Liquidity has also assumed even greater importance: the provisional number for Money Markets Funds during 3Q19 eclipses the previous inflow record set in 4Q08 at the height of the sub-prime debt crisis.

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LendersBenchmark™ - Financial Lending Analytics

Rutger Responds: Insights from Finovate Fall 2019

By Rutger van Faassen 04 Oct 2019

Rutger Responds: Insights from Finovate Fall 2019 I spent three exciting days at Finovate Fall 2019 in New York last week witnessing the latest and greatest from over 70 fintechs. As a first-time attendee, I enjoyed the innovative format exhibitors used of more “showing” and less “telling” with seven-minute demos of specific use cases: which left the audience with a quick snapshot of what each Fintech helps solve and how. The event included a healthy mix of early and late stage fintechs, as well as Financial Institutions, vendors, and investors. There were several interesting key notes containing key themes that included data driven personal finance, ML and (conversational) AI, robotics, and Digital First. Let’s dive a little deeper into each of them!

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EPFR Fund Flows

Quants Corner

By Mike Simcock, CEO of ClearMacro 01 Oct 2019

Guest blog – ‘Quantifying the impact of Trade War Tariffs’ This week’s Quant’s Corner is written by Mike Simcock, CEO of ClearMacro, a London-based fintech company. ClearMacro helps clients bridge the gap between systematic and discretionary investment processes by transforming raw data into investible signals, and is partnering with EPFR to stage a panel discussion on monetary and other risks to the global economy on October 9 at The Shard in London.

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IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

China Insight: We Are Just in Short-Lived Peace

By Tim Cheung 01 Oct 2019

Ahead of high-level trade talks scheduled for the second week of October in Washington, there is the growing expectation that an interim or mini deal between the US and China will be reached there.

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LendersBenchmark™ - Financial Lending Analytics

How Can Banks Succeed in Today’s Challenging Environment?

By Rutger van Faassen 01 Oct 2019

Our VP of Consumer Lending, Rutger van Faassen, and Steve Dobrenski, VP of Corporate Development at Nomis Solutions, say it’s all about getting to know your customers better. Informa Financial Intelligence and Nomis Solutions have joined forces to empower their banking customers to find their edge with actionable insights. We had the chance to sit down with Rutger van Faassen, Vice President Consumer Lending at Informa Financial Intelligence and Steve Dobrenski, VP Corporate Development and Partnerships at Nomis Solutions to discuss what they think are the critical success factors for thriving in today’s challenging environment.

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 09.30.19

By Ryan Nauman 30 Sep 2019

There is no lack of important economic data releases in the week ahead. The U.S. economy has been a tale of two sides, the good (services and labor market) and the bad (manufacturing). Well, this week provides us with information on both sides. I will be particularly interested in the Markit Services and ISM Nonmanufacturing readings, as the services sector has been supporting the U.S. economic expansion and it will be imperative that the services sector remains strong for the expansion to continue. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 09.30.19

30 Sep 2019

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Generous Welfare Spending Looks Set to Secure Poland's Ruling Party Another Election Victory The ruling Law and Justice Party's greatest ever showing in an election for the European Parliament in May (45% of the vote versus a combined ca. 38% for the opposition alliances), has placed it on a strong footing heading into the Polish parliamentary elections on 13th October. The AUD Week - Bias is Bullish Highlight of the week comes in the shape of the RBA rate decision, and while odds for a 25bps rate cut currently sit around 45%, we suspect no such event will occur. Has The Fed Done Enough? Month/quarter-end is with us and we will find out if the Fed has ‘done enough’ via its repo operations to prevent spikes in funding costs. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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EPFR Fund Flows

German data and US politics chill appetite for equity exposure

By Cameron Brandt 27 Sep 2019

German data and US politics chill appetite for equity exposure With the specter of impeachment proceedings again stalking US President Donald Trump’s presidency, continuing stress in the short-term dollar lending market and German’s economic woes fueling speculation that the Eurozone could slip in to recession, risk appetite was replaced with risk aversion in late September. Equity Funds bore the brunt. Redemptions from US and Asia ex-Japan Equity Funds hit levels last seen in 4Q18 and 4Q16 respectively, money flowed out of Japan Equity Funds for the fourth week in a row and Europe Equity Funds posted their 36th outflow in the 38-weeks year-to-date. Balanced Funds, which can invest in both equity and fixed income assets, recorded their biggest outflow since mid-May a week after snapping a redemption streak stretching back to 2Q18. Fixed income investors also took a turn for the cautious, with Local Currency Emerging Markets Bond Funds posting outflows, fresh commitments to High Yield Bond Funds falling to a 19th of the previous week’s total and redemptions from Bank Loan Funds climbing to a five-week high. Bond Funds with investment grade mandates, meanwhile, attracted over $8 billion. Overall, the week ending September 25 saw EPFR-tracked Equity Funds post a collective net outflow of $22 billion. Investors also pulled $2 billion out of Balanced Funds while steering $975 million into Alternative Funds, $9.2 billion into Bond Funds and $35 billion into Money Market Funds.

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

China Insight: CGB Inclusion to JPM Indices Won’t Have Much Impact on RMB FX

By Tim Cheung 24 Sep 2019

JP Morgan in early-September announced that China Government Bonds (CGBs) will be included in its series of GBI-EM bond indices, starting 28 February 2020. The inclusion will take place over a 10-month period and be completed at the end of November 2020. This is another major bond index's inclusion of China, following Bloomberg Barclays'.

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EPFR Fund Flows

Quants Corner

By Sayad Baronyan 24 Sep 2019

The Global oil market: winners and losers, following the Saudi facility attack – a fund flow perspective During the first quarter of this year officials from Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main stock exchange, told Reuters that they were anticipating significant flows into the kingdom’s equity markets. The reason for their optimism was Saudi Arabia’s promotion from frontier to emerging markets status, with the attendant expected inclusion of Saudi stocks in major emerging market benchmarks.

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 09.23.19

By Ryan Nauman 23 Sep 2019

Now that the September FOMC meeting is behind us the spotlight will shine on trade talks between the U.S. and China. As for economic data releases, we will get data on the manufacturing sector by way of the PMI flash readings and durable goods orders. We will also find out if business investment has picked up when core capex is released on Friday. Additionally, this upcoming week will shed some light on the sentiment of the consumer, which has been the driving force behind the current expansion. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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