IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

China Insight: Impact of Baoshang Takeover on The Onshore Debt Market

By Tim Cheung 18 Jun 2019

On 24 May, PBOC and CBIRC jointly announced to take over Baoshang Bank for one year due to serious credit risk. As far as we are aware, Baoshang Bank already showed multiple red flags on credit risk in 2017, with 28.8% y/y asset growth, around 30% of assets in receivable investments, 46% of loans in unsecured lending, and a decline of total CAR to 9.3% in the same year (vs the minimum requirement of 10.5% in the same year). We are surprised that the regulators did not step in until it was confirmed that 6 out of Baoshang's top 10 debtors had already defaulted on their debt obligations.

Topic Industry News

EPFR Fund Flows

Quants Corner

By Sayad Baronyan 18 Jun 2019

Tracking Global Risk Appetite using Multi-Asset Fund Flows Over the last decade, as investment managers have increased their attempts to generate investment products that efficiently diversify, resulting in multi-asset balanced funds on the rise.

Topic Industry News

EPFR Fund Flows

Central bank support boosts Equity Fund flows in mid-June

By Cameron Brandt 18 Jun 2019

Central bank support boosts Equity Fund flows in mid-June With the US Federal Reserve voicing support for the goal of sustaining the current recovery, the Bank of Japan continuing to run its ultra-accommodative monetary program and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) committed to ‘targeted stimulus’, equity investors made a return during the second week of June. EPFR-tracked US, Japan and China Equity Funds all took in fresh money, enabling Equity Funds overall to post inflows for only the second time since mid-March.

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 06.17.19

17 Jun 2019

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The Yen Week – Bias is Neutral Thursday is BOJ day in Japan, considered one of the smaller monetary policy meetings as there are no new forecasts on GDP and inflation. Kuroda and co are widely expected to keep its 'QQE with yield curve control' policy unchanged. However, a number of firms are unsurprisingly indicating that the strength of the Yen could be a focus. Euro Volume Jumps as Investors Grab for Duration Despite a 4-day week after Whit Monday, Euro-denominated primary issuance surged to EUR54.46bn, to produce the second highest volume week YTD. Sovereigns led supply, capitalising on the plunge in EGB yields as the 5yr/5yr EUR inflation swap rate hit a record low. Long-Term FX Forecast: 1.10-1.15 EUR/USD Despite Fed Pricing The Euro is doing okay. It's the second best performer so far in Q2 vs the USD (albeit miles behind the Yen, i.e. +0.7% vs +2.2%), while in June its gains are being outpaced by just the likes of the CAD and NOK. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics Software, Zephyr...

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 06.17.19

By Ryan Nauman 17 Jun 2019

The FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be the highlight of the week. Expectations for a rate cut during this meeting are low, however, Powell’s statements will be widely critiqued. Investors will be focusing on every word to try and gauge if and when the Fed may cut rates.With the solid retail sales and labor market, I don’t expect the Fed to cut rates during this meeting. However, in addition to their policy on interest rates, I will be listening closely for an update on their economic outlook and the corresponding risks, as well as any insights regarding their balance sheet. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

China Insight: White Paper Could Kick-Off Long March

By Tim Cheung 11 Jun 2019

We saw a further escalation of the US-China trade war during the last week of May. After hinting at a potential restriction of rare earth exports to the US and announcing a plan to list out unreliable foreign companies, Beijing released a white paper putting all the blame on the US for the collapse of the trade talks and stressing China will not make any concessions to the US on the principal issues.

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 06.10.19

10 Jun 2019

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Chinese Issuers Dominate a Slow May Chinese issuers were even more dominant than usual as a percentage of overall APAC US$ primary volume, placing US$15.528bn of combined offshore bonds which equated to 78.5% of the total amount issued during the month. The GBP Week – Bias is Bearish Markets have obviously not been listening too closely to the MPC's chief economist Haldane. He argued late Friday the time is nearing for a hike. So much for following other G10 CBs with a dovish turn, Haldane says an early rate rise would provide insurance amid likely steady 1.5% 2019 growth and a 1.5% rise in real wages when Brexit uncertainty ends. USD/RUB Could Take Out 66 on Brent Trigger Below USD60/brl The escalation in trade wars over the past two weeks has sent oil prices tumbling, as markets begin to price in a protracted and entrenched dispute between the US and China. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 06.10.19

By Ryan Nauman 10 Jun 2019

This week’s highlight will come in the form of the CPI reading. Inflation has captured the attention of many, as it remains stubbornly low despite a historically tight labor market, rising wages, and price pressure from tariffs. The low inflation is a primary talking point for the Federal Reserve and one they will continue to monitor moving forward, while investors are calling for lower interest rates due to the muted inflation. Based on this week’s market reaction, markets will applaud muted inflation, which should add pressure on the Fed to cuts rates. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

EPFR Fund Flows

Quants Corner

By Sayad Baronyan 04 Jun 2019

Quantifying Global market ‘flight to safety’ rotations in times of uncertainty - trade wars & political unrest New developments on trade war are shifting the risk outlook significantly in the minds of investors. Most of the asset classes has been affected from the ‘flight-to-safety’ mode in global markets since mid-May.

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

China Insight: RMB Depreciation Not Permitted as Yet

By Tim Cheung 04 Jun 2019

Chinese policymakers since the middle of May have started to express their intention to safeguard the currency against speculative attacks, given growing concerns in the market over an imminent depreciation of the RMB as a result of escalating US-China trade tensions.

Topic Industry News

EPFR Fund Flows

Trade and political risks keep lid on Equity Fund flows in late May

By Cameron Brandt 03 Jun 2019

Trade and political risks keep lid on Equity Fund flows in late May EPFR-tracked Equity Funds posted their 10th outflow in the past 11 weeks going into the final days of May as trade issues weighed on US and Emerging Markets Equity Funds and political ones on Europe Equity Funds.

Topic Industry News

PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics Software, Zephyr...

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 06.03.19

By Ryan Nauman 03 Jun 2019

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy conference kicks off on Tuesday and will be widely watched. Markets do not like surprises and the Fed has been doing a decent job of being transparent lately and that will have to continue. They may feel pressured to start signaling a possible rate cut if they see downside risks mounting due to trade uncertainty, slowing global growth, and weak inflation. The trade uncertainty is the real wildcard here, particularly with the surprise threat on Mexican imports. Additionally, with benchmark rates already at a low range, it will be important for the Fed to act quickly if they sense downside risks are increasing, since they do not have much room to lower rates. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

Mapa Research

Have digital investment challengers lost momentum

By Tom Erasmus 30 May 2019

In 2016 the market saw a wave of new digital wealth management platforms enter the market, 3 years later, many of their unique features have been adopted into traditional provider platforms, so have these challengers lost momentum? This article by Tom Erasmus discusses whether established providers have caught up with the challengers and what the future of the market may look like. Article: 3min read

Topic Industry News Fintech RoboAdvisers

EPFR Fund Flows

Quants Corner

By Sayad Baronyan 29 May 2019

How are investors positioned in FANG Stocks? The overall sentiment in the Emerging markets was affected negatively by the latest round of trade tensions between US and China. The S&P500 Index is down more than 4.0% from its highest point this year, and last week investors pulled more than $1.1 billion from China, HK and Greater China equity funds, according to EPFR data. The continued escalation of trade war has raised further concerns on global growth, which impacts technology stocks. According to EPFR data, China technology sector funds experienced record setting outflows, and all FANG* stocks are down from their late-April highs.

Topic Industry News