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IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
PBOC Q3 monetary policy report released on 26 November reinforces our view that liquidity will be going tighter and deleveraging may be getting more prominent in the months ahead. The report, echoing the need to stabilize leverage, direct financing and control financial risk suggested by PBOC governor Yi Gang in a research paper published on 17 Nov, indicates second-phase deleveraging is kicking in, though it, in terms of magnitude, may be more gentle than the first-phase in 2017 (chart 1).
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
Whilst the CBRT's efforts looks to have offered some light at the end of the tunnel for the Lira, the recent breather suggests it may still take some time to restore confidence back into the Turkish currency... read on for more...
Topic Industry News
PSN Separately Managed Accounts (SMA) Data
The stellar market recovery continued during the third quarter. The U.S. economy continued to stabilize, providing investors with optimism, resulting in equities (S&P 500 index) rising 8.93% during the quarter. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that it will remain very accommodative in the years to come as expectations are for rates to remain near zero until 2023. However, equities fell late in the quarter due to a resurgence of coronavirus cases, while congress could not come to an agreement on an additional economic stimulus package. The risk-on environment, largely driven by accommodative monetary policy and the Fed’s change to its inflation policy, boosted corporate bonds, while 10-year Treasury yields rose three basis points to 0.68% during the quarter.
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
With EM Asia FX already trading at a premium to equity market sentiment, China credit wobbles and central bank rhetoric, we do not rule out further dips. Our short-term fair value models suggest the better value rests with higher yielding currencies…
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics, PSN Separately Managed Accounts ...
Despite being shortened due to Thanksgiving, the trading week is not light on economic data releases. A couple that I will be watching closely will be durable goods orders and consumer spending. Businesses and individuals have displayed optimism by increasing their purchases of big-ticket items since the peak of the pandemic in March. We find out if this spending continued in October, despite a surge in coronavirus cases. Finally, we will get additional data on the red-hot housing market which seems likely to continue its strength due to historically low mortgage rates...
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
While COVID remains well under control in mainland China, we have seen a surge in credit defaults there since the beginning of Q4. So far this quarter, we have seen four major bond defaults in China: 1. Huachen Auto Group, 2. Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Group, 3. Tsinghua Unigroup, 4. Fujian Fusheng Group. With credit quality in selected sectors worsening, interbank liquidity is going tighter regardless of less supply of government bonds in this quarter (chart 1) than the previous one. In interbank market, 1-month and 3-month repo are back at 3.00% and 3.20% respectively, the upper-end of their trading ranges since the middle of 2019 (chart 2). That means regardless of the counter-pandemic monetary easing across the globe since some 9 months ago, financing costs in mainland China, as represented by interbank repo rates, some how are back at their pre-pandemic levels.
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
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Topic Industry News
EPFR - fund flow & allocations data
With hopes rising that two, if not three, vaccines that are over 90% effective against the COVID-19 virus will be available for use by year’s end, US equity markets hit a new record high and EPFR-tracked Equity Funds continued to enjoy strong inflows during the week ending Nov. 18. But investors also paid more attention to the economic damage that may occur between the peak of the pandemic’s second wave and sufficiently widespread vaccination, especially in Europe, which capped the latest week’s Equity Fund inflows at 60% of the previous week’s record-setting total. Sentiment towards emerging markets, anchored by China’s return to growth, remains on the mend and has picked up a tailwind from expectations that 2021 will see more travel thanks to the deployment of vaccines, thereby boosting tourism and oil prices. Emerging Markets Equity Funds posted their ninth consecutive inflow and Emerging Markets Bond Funds their 19th in the past 21 weeks. Emerging Markets Money Market Funds are also enjoying solid inflows and are on course to set a new full-year record, with Asia ex-Japan Funds seeing the biggest inflows in cash terms and Latin America Equity Funds in % of AUM terms.
Topic Industry News
EPFR - fund flow & allocations data
Signing off on a crazy year After more than two decades of tracking mutual fund flows and allocation data, we’ve come to believe that each year, or indeed each time period, has its own special “data signature”. If, for instance, you plot the cumulative weekly flow into EPFR-tracked equity funds against those into bond funds -- expressing both as a percentage of assets under management -- you end up with a random trail that reflects the uncertainty or confidence felt by markets over a given period of time. By that measure, 2020 has been a crazy one indeed, as befits a year that has seen the COVID-19 pandemic and the swansong of Donald Trump’s presidency. In contrast to most of the blogs that appear on Quant’s Corner, this one will spend more time looking at the writing on the 2020 wall than trying to translate it through quantitative analysis into actionable strategies, signals and models...
Topic Industry News
Digital Banking Hub, Digital Banking Research
In this blog we take a closer look at the recently announced 5% APY of its Savings Vaults, which at the time of writing is 25 times higher than the national average. Revolut seems to be innovating in more than UX with this truly unique offering, read the blog to see how it works. Blog: 3min read
Topic Digital Banking
IGM FX and Rates
Markets do not tend to look much beyond a safe haven attraction as reasons for relative YEN strength. However, some independent props have been emerging lately, lending gravitas to current gains. For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
PBOC once again raised the prospect of winding down its monetary easing policies, though the central banks in Europe may be considering to ease further amid the broadening of the second wave of COVID. On 6 November, PBOC official delivered remarks on the monetary environment at a conference. Liu Guoqiang, PBOC vice governor: "Exit is a matter of timing, and it is also necessary. But the timing and method of exit need to be carefully evaluated, mainly based on the status of economic recovery". Sun Guofeng, PBOC director of the Monetary policy department: "The policy introduced during the special periods will be adjusted in due course". The remarks by Liu and Sun were very much in consistence with what PBOC governor Yi Gang said at Lujiazui forum back in June. At the forum, Yi said "we need to consider a timely exit of policy tools in advance". Though PBOC's growing bias in favour of an exit of counter-pandemic monetary stimulus does not necessarily mean that monetary policy will be tightened immediately, it may result in a gradual reduction of liquidity supply. Chart 1 shows that liquidity so far this year has been notably tighter, despite the outbreak of COVID...
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics, PSN Separately Managed Accounts ...
The week ahead will be highlighted by the release of October retail sales numbers as we head into the ever important holiday shopping season for retailers. With coronavirus cases picking up in October, the level of retail sales will be an interesting watch. Speaking of retailers, the week ahead is full of earnings releases from the biggest names in retail such as Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and Lowes. Headwinds persist for retailers, however, companies with a solid ecommerce presence should be able to weather the storm...
Topic Industry News
EPFR - fund flow & allocations data
Join EPFR Director of Research, Cameron Brandt, Forbes Columnist, Kenneth Rapoza and EPFR Manager of Quant Strategies, Steven X. Shen, CQF as they discuss how managers are navigating retail currents, geopolitical reefs, the pandemic tide and rebalanced ballasts, the debate about China’s future as an asset class, and the economic relationship between China and the US in our latest webinar playback. CSCA data, and EPFR Fund and Country Flow data, illustrates the desire of many investors - and some fund managers - to get exposure to China’s growth story with a minimum of direct involvement in China’s retail-driven domestic markets. Foreign listed Chinese shares remain the only group where EPFR-tracked managers are overweight the benchmark and, at times this year, flows have bypassed dedicated China Equity Funds in favour of Greater China and Taiwan Equity Funds.
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
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Topic Industry News
16 Dec 2020 , 15:00
UK
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