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IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
24 Feb 2020
Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: UK-EU: A Clash on Trade While the EU and the UK position themselves (polarised comes to mind) ahead of the start of transition talks and trade deals, a vote in the Netherlands highlights potential issues facing the UK on any trade deal. The NZD Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish Even as RBNZ's Orr talked last week of being in no rush to go lower on interest rates, implied probability of a rate cut by June now stands at 66%. Euro FIG Snapshot: Demand Still Plentiful Despite Shakier Tone Despite the variable tone in markets seen over the course of the week, the primary FIG market continued to spit out deals, albeit at a slightly slower pace, where non-covered FIG issuers raised a total of EUR5.94bn in a polarised week which saw borrowers opt for either senior or AT1 format. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!
Topic Industry News
PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics Software, Zephyr...
By Ryan Nauman 24 Feb 2020
With the coronavirus expanding to areas outside the China mainland, concerns regarding the ramifications on the global economy continue to grow. Starting next week with the consumer confidence prints, we will start to get some economic data that corresponds to the virus outbreak. The consumer has shouldered the economic expansion, and it will be very important for them to continue as the global economy is sure to take a hit due to the coronavirus. Additionally, some Federal Reserve officials will speak during the week ahead, which will be widely watched as markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year in response to the coronavirus. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!
Topic Industry News
EPFR Fund Flows
By Cameron Brandt 21 Feb 2020
Year-to-date flows into EPFR-tracked Bond Funds pushed over the $155 billion mark during the third week of February as mutual fund investors remain reluctant to chase the returns being delivered by equity markets. Uncertainty about the full impact on global growth of the Wuhan coronavirus, the focus of retiring baby boomers on capital preservation and the US Federal reserve’s recent statement that its current monetary policy is ‘appropriate’ are among the current reasons for the muted response to the record highs being posted by major equities indexes. Those investors that are buying into the latest rally by US and other equity markets are either opting for broad, diversified exposure or, in the case of the US, focusing on the sector – technology – that is leading the charge. Global Equity and Technology Sector Funds both rank among the 15 fund groups that have attracted the biggest amounts of fresh money YTD. Absent from that list are fund groups with Asian mandates, which have predictably struggled as investors try to get a fix on the scope and trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak. The week ending Feb. 19 saw Korea Equity Funds post record-setting outflows, China Equity Funds experience net redemptions for the second time in the past three weeks and Japan Equity Funds record consecutive weekly outflows for the first time YTD.
Topic Industry News
LendersBenchmark™ - Financial Lending Analytics
By Rene Segura, Market Analysis Manager | Joseph Blute, Market Analysis Manager 20 Feb 2020
Over the past few months, lots of commentary and speculation has been shared around the QM rule changes, the GSE patch, the patch's expiration and how it will all affect mortgage lenders. In this discussion, we will examine how these rules came about, what the expected changes are, and how these changes may affect future mortgage originations.
Topic Industry News
EPFR Fund Flows
By Vik Srimurthy 19 Feb 2020
It is an article of investible faith that geopolitical and financials crisis, natural disasters and epidemics translate into greater demand for gold and other precious metals. The coronavirus outbreak centered in Wuhan, China certainly fits these criteria and has generated a predictable flight to gold in its various forms. Fund flow data has, over the years, proved useful in confirming surges in demand, measuring the relative strength of that demand and identifying the inflection points that signal a shift in sentiment towards gold (see chart below). But using this information leaves investors making largely qualitative decisions about the optimum exposure to this asset class.
Topic Industry News
PSN Separately Managed Accounts (SMA) Data, PSN Enterprise -...
By Ryan Nauman 19 Feb 2020
A stellar 2019 finished with a bang as the geopolitical risks that dominated headlines and markets for the better part of 2019 diminished during the fourth quarter while economic data remained stable. The S&P 500 index posted a +9.07% return during the quarter as a phase one trade agreement between the U.S. and China provided a boost for global markets and increased investor optimism. Furthermore, the MSCI EAFE index posted an +8.21% return during the quarter as global investors cheered the trade agreement while hoping the easing trade tensions will provide relief to the soft global economy. Despite a 25-basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the improved investor sentiment hurt Treasuries, as the BofA Merrill Lynch US Treasury index returned -0.89% during the quarter.
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
By Tim Cheung 18 Feb 2020
The authorities, MOF, PBOC and CBIRC, hosted a joint conference on Feb 7 to provide an update on supportive policies in light of the coronavirus situation. We believe the conference delivered a loosening bias tone as a nimble response to the virus outbreak. Next move following the huge liquidity injection and provision of first batch of special relending funds to more than a dozen of banks is going to be an LPR cut on 20 Feb. We expect a 10bp cut in both 1-year and 5-year LPRs on 20 Feb (chart 1), similar to the magnitude of the latest OMO rate cut. A more sizable cut may mean the policymakers are opting for more aggressive monetary easing to cushion the economic shocks arising from the coronavirus outbreak.
Topic Industry News
PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics Software, Zephyr...
By Ryan Nauman 18 Feb 2020
The week ahead is full of housing data, from home builders' confidence to existing home sales. The housing market has recently stabilized, in large part due to a strong labor market and low mortgage rates, however, for the sector to completely rebound, inventory needs to pick up, so the release of housing starts and building permits data should be widely watched. Walmart is the headline earnings release, while providing insight into the consumer after the soft retail sales number last week. Is the consumer still willing to shoulder the economy, or are they losing some momentum? Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
18 Feb 2020
Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The JPY Week - Bias is Bearish Has the impact of coronavirus now peaked? We say such talk is premature and an underlying bid Usd/Jpy will continue to slow into 110.00-plus. Euro FIG Snapshot: Virus Protection Fully Operational With the recovery in risk assets extending into a second week, more issuers emerging from blackout and the credit market's virus protection evidently up to date, the pace picked up in the non-covered primary FIG market last week. Equities Ignore, Hope … Euro Indicates Slowing EMU Economy It doesn’t take much to light a fire under equities, but it is going to take much more to push bond yields higher... Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!
Topic Industry News
EPFR Fund Flows
By Cameron Brandt 14 Feb 2020
Investors showed signs they are learning to live with the Wuhan coronavirus during the second week of February, steering fresh money to most of the fund groups tracked by EPFR. They committed a combined $36 billion to all Equity and Bond Funds -- with Bond Funds setting their second weekly inflow record since the start of the year -- and showed increased appetite for riskier asset classes such as junk bonds, emerging markets equity and debt and alternative assets. Diversified fund groups remained popular with investors going into the second half of February. Global Equity Funds recorded their biggest inflow since 1Q18, Global Bond Funds took in fresh money for the 49th time in the past 52 weeks and Global Emerging Markets Equity (GEM) Equity Funds extended their longest inflow streak since a 19-week run ended in mid-2Q18. Overall, the week ending Feb. 12 saw Bond Funds take in a net $23.6 billion, Equity Funds $12.5 billion, Money Market Funds $9.3 billion, Balanced Funds $638 million and Alternative Funds $277 million. Equity Funds with socially responsible (SRI) or environmental, social and governance (ESG) mandates attracted nearly a third of the headline number for all Equity Funds, and those with a focus in dividend paying stocks posted inflows for the fourth time in the past five weeks and 18th in the past 22.
Topic Industry News
EPFR Fund Flows
By Sayad Baronyan 11 Feb 2020
More than two decades have passed since then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher gave the speech that many view as the catalyst for the UK’s exit from the European Union earlier this year. Speaking in the Belgium city of Bruges, Thatcher spelled out her opposition to further European integration. "We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level, with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels,” said Thatcher, who had previously supported Britain’s involvement in the European Union. Brexit became a reality on the 31st of January 2020, after three and a half years marked by two general elections, two prime ministers, endless discussions about hard versus soft exits from the EU and the testing of British constitutional norms. How did this noisy saga play out when viewed through the lens of mutual fund flows? And does the fund flow perspective shed light on the investment case – and climate -- for the UK in the years ahead?
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
By Tim Cheung 11 Feb 2020
With the coronavirus outbreak still evolving, the market signal is clear: less growth and more accommodative policy in China. Further to our forecast given in the previous issue of China Insight that "China will only achieve 4.8-5.3% GDP growth in 2020" because of the disaster, we in the current issue present our view on how the yield curves in China are being impacted. The broadening of the coronavirus outbreak in China, the lockdown of Hubei province and the extension of LNY holiday have already given a hard hit to the manufacturing sector. Due to that, we inevitably will see a fall in PMI indices in Feb and March. At worst, PMI will continue to be under downward pressure over the rest of H1. In our view, some downturn of the manufacturing sector as a result of the disaster is already priced in 5yr IRS, but a drop by 2 to 3 points in PMI from here should still be able to drive IRS much lower to sub-2016 lows. Given the strong correlation between the NBS Manufacturing PMI and 5yr CNY IRS in the past (chart 1), 5yr IRS at 2.55-2.60% appears to have priced a fall in Feb PMI to around 49.0 from January's 50.0. A further decline in PMI to the 48.0 region in March or during the March-April period, in our view, will bring 5yr IRS down further to 2.35-2.45%.
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
10 Feb 2020
Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro Corp Snapshot: LVMH Monster Drives Biggest Volume Week Since September Corporate issuance surged in the latest week as borrowers emerged from earnings enforced blackouts to hit the market and make the most of what was a more upbeat broader market tone. Policy Paralysis in South Africa Leaves Economy And State Finances on The Brink The South African Rand has always served as an EM bellwether and its increased volatility over the past few weeks is no surprise, but there are also some fundamental drivers behind the currency's current EM-beating losses. Decent US Labour Market Report. Larger Spare Capacity? On the face of it, the January US Employment Report was more than decent. Headline payrolls smashed expectations (225k vs 165k forecast). Services payrolls were +174k from 147k last time. Average earnings also topped projections at 3.1% y/y. Still, yields didn't rise. If anything, they are a little lower. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!
Topic Industry News
PSN Separately Managed Accounts (SMA) Data, PSN Enterprise -...
By Ryan Nauman 10 Feb 2020
We are excited to introduce Top Guns Model Portfolios to our quarterly Top Guns rankings and commentary. For those of you not familiar with Top Guns… Top Guns is a quarterly ranking of the best of the best Separately Managed Account (SMA) managers in the PSN SMA database, our proprietary SMA database. We rank the managers across various metrics such as return, risk, r-squared, and information ratio to determine the Top Gun award recipients as well as naming Manager of the Decade. These rankings help wealth managers who subscribe to the PSN SMA database more efficiently identify the top managers for consideration in their client portfolios. In turn, this also helps highlight our asset manager participants who are outperforming their relative benchmarks.
Topic Industry News
PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics Software, Zephyr...
By Ryan Nauman 10 Feb 2020
Despite the Q4 earnings season slowing down, there remains some big-name companies who are on deck to release earnings this week including: Cisco Systems, Applied Materials, and Nvidia. While it might be a quiet week for earnings, the week ahead is full of important economic data releases, including small-business optimism, inflation, and retail sales. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!
Topic Industry News
23 Mar 2020 , 08:00
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