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I have to address those who think the tariffs are just part of a negotiating process that won’t be as ‘bad’ as threatened.
Let me say at the onset that I’m aware of my proclivities towards pessimism and seeing the economy glass at, say, a 1.5-2% GDP trajectory for eternity. I try to work around that and probe for cavities in my arguments, but on this trade thing I’m coming up empty for the most part. I see tariffs as 1) hurting most US firms in a global economy, 2) creating a lot of uncertainty which will inhibit investment, 3) cause more job losses than job gains, 4) give us some inflation in the coming months that will, 5) encourage the Fed to hike, while 6) doing pretty much the same for trading counterparties and 7) leave the US as an entity, concept, leader in a disdained global position that will take years to unwind, if ever. And all that when we’re increasing the need for foreigners to buy our debt and reducing their ability to do so. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...
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