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 IGM FX and Rates

See above. In 2020 so far, the USD has largely been a winner. Only notable losses have been against other haven rivals the YEN and -2.0% CHF (despite the purported SNB intervention!). Largest gains have been against the commodity bloc and G10's biggest victim, the near -9.0% NOK. The Krone is down on risk-off sentiment, a deflated value rotation and the sharp drop in oil prices (DANSKE BANK).

Now with the start of H2 and Q3.

So far in Jul, the USD is an across the board loser, largest so far -0.4% JPY and -0.9% NOK.

However, how does the USD tend to fare generally in the first month of H2? Further, are there any G10s that seem to perform particularly well/badly through Jul?

  • In 2019, the USD was an across the board winner, from +0.7% CAD through to +3.7% NOK, +3.9% SEK and +4.2% GBP.

IGM FX and Rates 

  • In 2018, the USD was mixed, but was only a slight mover either way. The USD was down -0.7% NZD, -1.0% CAD and -1.7% SEK, USD gains seen most vs +0.6% GBP and +1.0% JPY.
  • In 2017, the USD was mainly a loser, a considerable one. From -1.5% GBP through to -3.9% CAD, -4.1% AUD, -4.5% SEK and -6.1% NOK. Only the USD outpaced vs the +0.9% CHF.

IGM FX and Rates

  • In 2016, back to light mixed. USD losses included -0.9% NZD, -1.1% JPY and -2.0% AUD. Best USD gains came vs +1.0% NOK and +1.1% SEK.
  • In 2015, USD gains across the board, from +0.6% GBP through to +4.6% CAD and +5.2% AUD.
  • In 2014, same again. The Usd made gains across the whole of G10 land, albeit light ones, from +1.3% GBP through to +3.0% NZD and +3.1% SEK.
  • In 2013, the Usd was mostly a loser. From -1.3% JPY through to -2.8% SEK, -3.0% NOK and -3.2% NZD. Only material USD gain came against +1.7% AUD.
  • 2012 was mixed. The USD was down from -0.9% NZD through to -2.1% JPY and -2.6% JPY. Best USD gains were +2.9% CHF, EUR.
  • In 2011, largely USD losses. Sizeable losses included -2.3% GBP, -2.5% AUD, -5.0% JPY, -6.0% NZD and -7.0% CHF. Sole USD gain vs +0.7% EUR.
  • Ten years ago, across the board USD losses and sizeable ones. From -2.3% JPY through to -7.5% AUD and -8.1% SEK.

IGM FX and Rates

 

  • In 2009, same again. The seasonality continued. USD a loser across the board. From -1.6% GBP, EUR and CHF through to -5.2% NOK, -7.1% SEK and -7.9% CAD.
  • In 2008, the reverse. USD up across the board. From -0.3% CAD through to +2.5% CHF and +3.7% NZD.
  • 2007 brought mostly USD losses again. From -0.3% AUD through to -1.7% CHF and -3.8% JPY. Only material USD gain +1.3% NZD.
  • In 2006, a mixed bag. Most acute losses coming vs Antipodeans NZD and AUD at -1.7%, -3.3%. largest USD gain +1.3% CAD.
  • In 2005, also mixed with relatively little direction. Main moves -0.7% NOK and +1.9% GBP and +2.4% NZD.
  • In 2004, a few light losses, largest -0.5% AUD. Largest USD gains came against +2.1% SEK, +2.3% YEN and +2.6% CHF.
  • In 2003, across the board USD wins, from +0.6% YEN through to +2.8% SEK, +3.7% AUD and +4.1% CAD.
  • In 2002, sole USD losses vs -2.0% CHF. Largest USD gains vs -3.3% SEK, -3.7% AUD, -4.2% CAD and -4.5% NZD.
  • In 2001, the near reverse. Mostly USD losses up to -2.5% SEK, -3.2% EUR and -3.8% CHF. Only USD win worth talking about +1.3% CAD.
  • For good measure, 20 years ago in 2000, USD gains across the board. Lightest +0.4% CAD to +3.0% NZD and JPY and +3.6% SEK.

 

From that bunch, nothing definitive. The DOLLAR is hit or miss in July, it seems. When it's firm, it does well broadly. When pressured, it tends to go lower across the spectrum too.

Trade Recommendations

However, we made a nice 2.0%-plus with our long AUD/USD to 0.7000 in June's seasonality trade, so we feel we have room for manoeuvre.

Time for the SEK to give back ground? Looking to go long USD/SEK at 9.2750 for a 9.6500 return initially. Stop 9.0820.

IGM FX and Rates

Also, looking to go short the NZD/USD after the RBNZ's dovish reiteration and threat to buy more foreign assets to curb Kiwi strength. From 0.6500 for a 0.6300 return. Stop 0.6619.

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