FX Viewpoint – Seasonality in September?

For the most part, the broader Dollar is a light loser so far today, most acute losses showing up vs the -0.4% EUR, -0.5% NZD and -0.7% GBP.

We've described September as a month of extremes previously. It is traditionally a special month in FX markets. Unlike many other months, what strikes us immediately about this one is that the USD tends to move broadly, with little middle ground.

How about the rest of G10, does there tend to be any standout winners or losers in the last month of Q3?

• Sep 2019 was very mixed. The USD lost out most against the -0.5% CAD and -1.1% GBP, while its gains came versus the -0.7% CHF, -0.8% EUR, -1.0% NZD and -1.7% YEN.
• In 2018, mostly USD losses, the largest being -1.0% CAD and the Scandi bloc of -2.8% NOK and -3.0% SEK. Only notable USD wins came against other havens +1.3% CHF and +2.4% YEN.
• In 2017, the USD only lost out to the -0.4% NZD and the -3.6% GBP and won out elsewhere. The USD making +0.8% EUR through to +2.3% JPY and over +2.5% NOK and SEK.
• In Sep 2016, the USD was largely a loser, from -0.5% NZD through to -2.0% AUD and JPY and biggest of the lot -4.3% NOK.
• In 2015, only losses came against -0.9% NZD and -1.1% YEN, SEK. Elsewhere, the USD gained from +0.3% EUR to +1.3/+1.4% CAD, AUD and GBP, with largest gains vs +2.8% NOK.
• In Sep 2014, the USD swept the board, up +2.3% GBP, +3.5%-plus vs the likes of NOK, EUR and CHF, +5.1% JPY, +6.3% AUD and+6.6% NZD.

• In 2013, those extremes rear its head, and the USD lost out near across the board. Down -1.7% NOK, -2.9% SEK, -4.4% GBP, -4.7% AUD and -7.4% NZD. The tiniest of USD gains seen only vs +0.1% JPY.

• In Sep 2012, the USD lost out across the board, from -0.3% CAD to -2.2% EUR and -3.3% NZD.
• In 2011, it was the USD's turn to take full control and large ones at that. Up +0.5% JPY, then +4.1% GBP and through to +8.5% NOK, +9.8% AUD, +10.9% NZD and +11.3% CHF.
  
  
  

• Ten years ago, it was back to big USD weakness. From -0.8% JPY to -7.2% NOK, -7.5% EUR, -8.6% AUD and -9.6% SEK.
• In 2009, mostly USD losses. From -2.1% EUR to -4.2% NOK, -4.6% AUD and -5.6% NZD. Only USD win was vs +1.9% GBP.
• In 2008, only USD loss was made vs -2.5% JPY. Decent USD wins vs +1.9% CHF, +4.4% NZD, +6.8% SEK and +7.6% vs both NOK and AUD.
• In Sep 2007, the USD slumped across the board. From -0.8% JPY to -6.4% CAD, -7.1% SEK and between -8.0%/-8.5% NZD, NOK and AUD.
• In 2006, the USD again won out across the board, from +0.5% NZD through to +2.3% AUD and +3.3% NOK.
• For good measure, 15 years ago, USD losses came against the -0.9% AUD and -2.1% CAD. Around +2.5%/plus USD gains versus SEK, YEN, EUR and NOK, with biggest win against the +3.2% CHF.

As we can see, the USD tends to do one thing or the other in September. There are rarely mixed months. The commodity bloc tend to see some of the biggest moves, including the oil influenced NOK.