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In a recent speech, NY Fed President Williams spoke about “The Future Fortunes of R-star; Are they really rising?” I took a look at the graph of the estimate for the Natural Rate of Interest to see what’s going on with this particular measure. In a 2015 paper, Williams wrote that IF the estimated rate stayed low, “future episodes of hitting zero lower bound are likely to be frequent and long lasting.” In 2017, he looked at the details to conclude that a low R-star was 1) not a US story alone, but a global one, 2) it was likely to be long lasting and) it was not confined merely to low risk assets. As such, unusual monetary policies were likely to be the norm and that with globally low interest rates risks to financial stability are greater than they were. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...
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