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I get that despite all the data ahead of NFP, it was inevitable that a nuanced shift in the FOMC statement would garner more attention than was warranted. I refer to the notion that “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the near term.” The takeaway seems to be that if inflation ran a bit over that, or under for that matter, it wouldn’t compel the Fed to respond with more or less of the projected trajectory of hikes. In other words, the market’s pricing is about right in the Fed’s view, though if it were to err I continue to think it should be to a third hike in December. Perhaps Fed rhetoric is keeping some powder dry in light of heightened volatility and eccentricity -- I refer to the markets as much as politics. Read more David Ader's latest musings...
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