Please click on the attached PDF for our CEEMEA & LatAm 2019 Outlook, which runs through the key external and country specific risks that we expect to impact the region in 2018, and their likely affects.
As we head in 2019, there has been a broad stabilisation in CEEMEA markets, aided by a number of central banks responding to currency weakness with rate hikes, a reduction in trade war risk and a perceived dovish turn from the Fed in response to signs that the US economy is peaking. However, the focus in 2019 will shift from the impact of Fed tightening to slowing global growth as the weak currency impact from 2018 will gradually become more pronounced in the economic activity and inflation trajectory of Emerging Markets next year.
On one hand, the prospect of a weaker USD should mean solid returns for EM assets, but there will be a fine line between renewed carry trade appeal and fear over the pace of growth in developed markets. The net effect of this will be a very cautious rally for Emerging Market local currency assets in 2019.
Thus, the key questions heading into 2019 are:
- When will the top of the US economic cycle hit?
- Will the Fed pause rate hikes in early 2019 and will it hike fewer times next year than in 2018?
- Will the US/China trade war reignite at the end of the 90-day truce?
- Will a disorderly Brexit have an impact on the CEE region?