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IFI_Monthly_Interest_Rate_Outlook_-_April_2018.pdf

Please find attached the April 2018 edition of the IGM Monthly Interest Rate Outlook.

Highlights:

  • The monetary policy tightening bias is maintained, despite a bout of risk asset volatility brought about by a combination of economic growth concerns, tighter US funding conditions, (mainly tech) regulatory issues and of course trade tariffs.
  • Not surprisingly, Asian Emerging Market's Analyst Fred Yeo notes the latter play a role in the policy outlook for export-led South Korea [Pages 5, 13] and India [Pages 5, 13-14].
  • Senior Emerging Markets Analyst Natalie Rivett highlights the BCB turnaround 'from the February meeting, in which the BCB said the easing cycle had likely ended', to the now probable rate cut at the CB's next gathering � which should be the last in this cycle. [Pages 5, 15]
  • Senior FX Analyst Jian Hui sees 'the continued bout of Yen strength (and negative effect on exports, corporate earnings, wages, consumption, inflation) means that our long-standing call that the window for a YCC tweak will open up in Q2 has now been pushed back to Q3. ' [Pages 4, 7]
  • Meanwhile, Senior FX Analyst Mark Mitchell writes 'the Norges Bank were even more hawkish than expected. So a September rate hike is now the base forecast, with data set to be scrutinised closely before then, to see if an earlier rise in August is warranted.' [Pages 4, 9]
  • As the BoE tightens policy, in more ways than just Bank Rate, a much, if unfairly maligned market shows signs of post-crisis life writes Senior Credit Analyst Anil Mayre in this month's Special Study [Pages 2-3].

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