02 Feb 2018
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We have recently highlighted our view that USD weakness may be abating, see here, and while it hit a near 15mth low last Fri as bearish momentum shaped mth-end flows, Fed Fischer commented that political uncertainty is hurting US econ growth and more White House debacle, our conviction in the call for a steadying USD is starting to grow.
This is down to the o/n price action, where the USD briefly dipped after yet more soft US data but then rejected the downside move and bounced to eke out mild intraday gains.
UST yields diverges by falling hard o/n
UST yields saw a counterintuitive uptick post-data before sliding aggressively into the close as expectations of a 3rd Fed hike for 2017 fades.
The catalyst came from a drop in oil prices, soft US data and plunging auto sales in Jul that raises questions about broader consumer spending/a possible dip in durable goods orders/Q3 US growth weakness.
We still hold the viewpoint of a divergence reversal btwn UST yields and the USD
Note too that for USTs, beyond sluggish US data and the implication of a pause in Fed tightening, the lack of legislative success (another failed Obamacare repeal, no traction on tax/fiscal policies), the turmoil within the Trump administration, there's also the overhang of a looming debt ceiling negotiation and how it could descend into a disorderly govt shutdown.
That said, we continue to see limited downside for the USD, in what would be a reversal of the divergence seen recently.
One could pose the question of evidence of a capitulation of short-sellers to pinpoint a momentum change in the USD?
Note that while the USD will continue to trade soft against the Euro (ECB tapering speculation) and Yen (tracking UST yields), and it's still facing drag from the commodity rally, we still can't shake off a niggling feeling that market volatility, a stock market correction and general risk aversion is around the corner, which could place the brakes on the rally in risk ccies and correspondingly support the USD. JH
IGM FX and Rates
31 Jan 2017
Between the inevitabilities of death and taxes one would like to hope there’s room for a comfortable, perhaps a long, retirement. Alas, the data on that possibility is rather depressing for an awful lot of Americans.