BoE POLICY OUTLOOK Next month's BoE super-meeting has lost some of its potential for making an impact on sentiment on a number of grounds. PM May's surprise annoucement to hold a snap election in June and thereafter Brexit negotiations to continue in earnest after the French election. Since the last meeting (MPC minutes and a hawkish Forbes vote in late Mar surprised) the Pound has strengthened and data has tuned more mixed, hence, is highly unlikley to see the outgoing MPC member followed by any of her colleagues. CPI metrics in Apr were a shade less worrying (on core rate especially) as the headline equalled the prev month's 2.3%. Retail sales slumped, house price inflation cooled, ditto ip and manuf (all data misses) and by all account wages (AWEs) remain low by historical standards despite solid employment. The curve remains flat and not much for players to aim for given the prospect of an on the fence CB for 2 more years per recent wire polls. For now there doesn't see to be as much upward pressure for a steeper curve but we maintain the risk is of a change in sentiment that could derive externally. To counter, geopolitics could also limit upside potential with the FTQ ever present threat but less so after the French election. AB
BANK RATE 0.25%, LAST MOVE -25 BP AUG 2016, NEXT MEET MAY 10/11
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