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財務インテリジェンスの利点へようこそ

Financial Intelligence: 最新

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  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond Inflows Pick Up Amid Weak Economy

    As Emerging Markets go into recession, EM policymakers have rapidly deployed a broad range of support measures with more to come, but it remains to be seen how effective these will be in mitigating the EM growth hit. As far as China is concerned, negative GDP growth in Q1 looks unavoidable. The most pessimistic estimate in the street is -9%. For the full-year GDP growth, the revised estimates in the street fall between +1% and +4%. In light of the gloomy economic outlook, Beijing definitely will step up stimulus. Now a cut in the benchmark deposit rate is on the cards, which could be a more meaningful means to boost retail consumption. With interest rates trending downward, onshore government bonds and policy bank bonds have kept rallying recently on the back of strong buy-and-hold demand (chart 1). The latest data suggests the China bond market saw USD11bn of net inflows from foreign investors in February, up from only USD2bn in January (chart 2). Among the paper which is already or being included in the major global government bond indices, policy bank bonds (PBBs) registered a bigger increase in foreign investors' portfolios than China Government Bonds (CGBs). Of the USD11bn of net inflows in February, USD5bn was taken by PBBs, USD4bn by CGBs with the remainder by negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) and medium-term notes (MTNs).      

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR

    Quants Corner - Money Market Fund flows: Fear is not their only signal

    With the impact of the COVID-19 virus on day-to-day life and the global economy growing by leaps and bounds, fund flows are reflecting the biggest flight to safety by investors since the financial crisis in 2007-08.  

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: What Does Recent IRS Curve Steepening Imply?

    China's activity growth data for February were much weaker than expected, suggesting there is a very good chance the Q1 GDP y/y will fall into negative territory. Among forecasts from major investment banks, the most pessimistic ones for China's Q1 growth y/y are now in the -7/-9% range instead of +2/+3% territory seen a month ago, while that for the 2020 full-year growth are in the +1/+3% area rather than +4/+5%. To avoid the economy worsening further in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, Beijing inevitably has to ramp up fiscal spending substantially over the rest of the year. Given the postponement of the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting which was initially scheduled for early March, we so far have no official data on how much the government will spend in 2020. However, with the onshore CNY IRS curve steepening sharply recently (chart 1), we doubt the potential increase in government expenditure will be small. Meanwhile, we reckon most (if not all) of the extra spending will be financed by the issuance of special bonds, in particular, the long-term ones. As per chart 2, special bond issuance increased substantially in Jan and Feb, which may be setting a trend for most of the year.      

    Topic industry-news

  • psn, zephyr, psn-sma

    Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 03.23.20

    With expectations for a U.S. recession in 2020 running high, one has to believe that bad economic data is priced into markets. We will continue to get more and more economic data releases that miss big on the downside. However, these misses will not come as a surprise, as most market participants are expecting the worst. Investors will continue to focus more on monetary and fiscal policy when determining their investment strategies rather then economic data that is expected to be very soft. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.23.20

    The Context

    Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • EPFR

    Quants Corner - Knowing when to jump: risk management in extraordinary times - Crossing to safety in extraordinary market conditions

    What had been a relatively measured response to the coronavirus outbreak that started in China around the New Year became an increasingly disorderly stampede for the exits in late February. As COVID-19 spread across the globe, US stock market took a series of hits culminating in a 7% drop on March 6 that triggered the so-called “circuit breaker” – suspension of trading – for only the third time since its adoption.  

    Topic industry-news

  • Rutger Responds: Importance of Actionable Insights in Uncertain Times

    Rutger Responds: Importance of Actionable Insights in Uncertain Times The COVID-19 virus is spreading and everyone is looking to understand how this will impact their business and their customer’s lives. As things change in a rapid pace, and will continue to change over the foreseeable future, having access to market insights will help your financial institution to make crucial decisions.

    industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bullish on CGBs as RRR Cut in Sight

    Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held a State Council meeting on 11 March. Two key signals were released there: Speed up credit supply to industries and enterprises. Implement targeted cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) The signals are very clear, so we will see further liquidity loosening in mainland China in the near term. We expect a targeted RRR cut will be announced very soon. Needless to say, further reduction of loan prime rates (LPRs) will also happen at the regular fixing on 20 March. In regard to the China government bond (CGB) trading strategy under the prevailing environment, we here reiterate our bullish view.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.16.20

    Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • psn, zephyr, psn-sma

    Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 03.09.20

    Economic data takes center stage with the Q4 earnings season coming to a close and with most eyes on the warnings for forward earnings, or the lack thereof, in the wake of the uncertain coronavirus. The inflation prints will be widely watched as supply shocks tend to be inflationary, however, expectations are for inflation to remain muted. Additionally, the consumer sentiment readings will be more telling as the data will correspond more closely to the coronavirus outbreak. Finally, don’t be surprised if we see some data misses as we move forward with economic data that captures the same period as the outbreak. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.09.20

    The JPY Week - Bias is Bullish Crazy times and a possible/likely crazy trading range… Euro Corp Snapshot: Investors Still Sweet on Corp Bonds Despite Volatility With markets set to remain volatile as the world tries to contain the coronavirus outbreak, it is perhaps wise to expect a measured week for issuance. That said, as shown by last week's trades, investors appear to still have plenty of cash. More Monetary Easing Eyed as Coronavirus Further Dampens Brazil's Recovery Prospects Bets that Latin America's largest economy would finally take off this year have been eroded by a string of poor economic indicators for Q4.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: 10-year CGB yield will fall to 2.50% in H1

    In this publication, we will update our view on China Government Bonds (CGBs) with the COVID-19 outbreak taken into consideration...      

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR

    Quants Corner - The cure for the coronavirus? Investors think it is ESG

    With the coronavirus that originated in China renamed COVID-19 and spreading briskly, the final week of February was a brutal one for global markets. Benchmark equity indexes racked up daily losses at a rate last seen at the height of the 2008-09 financial crisis.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Refinancing Pressure on Property Developers Mounts

    China Insight

    It is still too early to say whether the COVID-19 outbreak will be effectively contained by the end of Q1. However, it’s quite certain that Chinese property developers will not see a significant recovery in sales over the rest of this quarter. In the USD bond market, Chinese IG property names saw credit spread tightening after PBOC made a huge liquidity injection and lowered reverse repo rates as soon as the extended LNY holiday was over. As far as Chinese HY property names are concerned, we saw their short-dated papers well absorbed by the market as soon as they were launched in the primary market. All these seems to suggest the developers' balance sheets are barely impacted by the sharp decline of sales. However, if we look at their refinancing schedule more closely, we may doubt such a resilience will be sustained.      

    Topic industry-news

  • psn, zephyr, psn-sma

    Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 03.02.20

    The week ahead is full of important economic data points, particularly with the coronavirus wreaking havoc on investor’s mindsets. The true impact that the viral outbreak will have on the economy will not be known for a few months, but we will start to see some signs with the upcoming February manufacturing data and jobs report. Solid data next week will help slow the equity sell-off. However, if the data misses' expectations, the sell-off could steepen. As for earnings releases, I will continue to focus on the forward guidance that the companies provide and the impact the coronavirus will have on their guidance. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

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