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Market Strategist
USA
21+ years of experience
Ryan provides analysis and research on market trends across asset classes, sectors, and regions to help empower better decisions for creating asset allocation strategies. His insight is disseminated through white papers, articles, training, and interviews with a target audience of financial advisors, portfolio managers, and investment analysts. As an industry leader, Ryan is often quoted in Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, MarketWatch.com, Yahoo! Finance, and the Wall Street Journal, while being a regular guest on TD Ameritrade Network, Yahoo! Finance, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio, and Chuck Jaffe’s Money Life podcast.
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 22 Nov 2021
Despite the shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the week is loaded, particularly on Wednesday, with headline capturing economic data releases. The release that will be on the minds of most will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE). Despite the Fed saying inflation will start to abate during the Q2 – Q3 2022 time period, inflation continues to rise, which has resulted in forecasts calling for interest rate hikes in 2022. The other data release that I will be watching closely will be consumer spending. Q3 economic growth slowed in large part due to a steep slowdown in consumer spending. The trajectory of economic growth during Q4 will be driven by consumer spending, so it will be important for the quarter to start off strong.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 15 Nov 2021
While the week ahead has some headline capturing data releases, I am most interested in the October retail sales number and the November regional manufacturing releases. Higher prices have hit the psyche of consumers recently as corporations have passed higher prices onto the consumer. We will find out what impact, if any, the higher prices have had on consumer’s willingness to spend on goods. Additionally, I will be watching the regional manufacturing surveys, which tend to be a good litmus test for the overall manufacturing sector.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 08 Nov 2021
The upcoming week is light on economic data releases as we take time to honor our Veterans. The release that will capture the most headlines will be the October CPI print. After this week’s FOMC meeting, we now know the Fed believes inflation will start to abate around Q2 – Q3 of 2022. With the timeline now public, investors can now judge if inflation is indeed on the path to start slowing within that timeline.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 01 Nov 2021
The much-anticipated November FOMC meeting takes place during the upcoming week, which is sure to catch the attention of investment professionals. The FOMC is expected to lay out its plan for tapering its asset purchases during the meeting. I will be most interested in the pace of the tapering with inflation climbing higher and employment costs reaching all-time-highs. Will the FOMC be aggressive, or will it spread the tapering out over a longer time period, so it does not hinder the labor market recovery and economy? As for the labor market, we get the ever-important jobs report on Friday. Recent months have shown the job market has lost some momentum, but jobless claims continue to fall.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 25 Oct 2021
With the much anticipated November FOMC meeting just two weeks away, all eyes will be on the Central Bank’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE), during the week ahead. Most are expecting the FOMC to announce its plan for slowing its asset purchases and the PCE reading as the primary reason to start tapering. The third quarter earnings season has started off hot, however, we will start to get the releases from companies who have had to directly contend with supply chain issues and higher prices. We will find out a lot about the health of corporate America in the coming weeks.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 18 Oct 2021
With the Q3 earnings season off to a strong start, the question remains, can the momentum be sustained throughout the season and continue to provide a boost to equities as it did this week? Some of the releases I am anticipating most this week are the airlines, Netflix, Tesla, and AT&T. As for economic data, the week ahead is full of housing data. The price of lumber has fallen which should relieve some pricing pressure on builders and buyers, however, low inventory continues to support higher prices as demand remains strong.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 11 Oct 2021
Following the second straight poor jobs report, the Federal Reserve is in a tough spot – does it move forward with tightening policies to slow inflation at the expense of the labor market? Well, this week the other shoe drops when the September consumer price index is released. A strong inflation print will put the Fed in a difficult position during their November meeting. In addition to a busy week for economic data releases, the third quarter earnings season picks up steam next week highlighted by big banks announcing their earnings. I will be paying close attention to what the banks have to say not only about the health of their businesses but the health of the overall economy.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 20 Sep 2021
The week ahead is heavy on housing data, which has been red hot due to low inventory, rising input costs, and high demand. Additionally, we will get the flash PMI readings for the manufacturing and services industries. The most widely watched release will be the release of the FOMC’s September meeting announcement and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s follow up press conference. Inflation (CPI) has slowed in recent months which follow’s the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) stance that high inflation is temporary. Will the recent cooling of prices take pressure off the Fed to start tapering asset purchases later this year? The tapering question, along with any new signals regarding interest rate hikes and economic projections will be the highlights of the announcement.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 13 Sep 2021
The week ahead is full of important economic data releases. The week includes soft data releases in the form of sentiment surveys as well as hard data releases like the consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales. Most will be watching the CPI release as inflation has been a primary concern for investors and businesses while the Federal Reserve walks a tight rope in trying to keep inflation from running too hot while not hindering the economic recovery, particularly the labor market. I will also pay close attention to the small business and consumer sentiment indexes to get a better idea of how they feel about the economy which can provide information about how they will spend in the near term..
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 07 Sep 2021
It is a light week ahead for economic data during the holiday shortened trading week. While recent figures show that the labor market has slowed recently, labor demand has remained strong, which will be highlighted when job openings for July is released. The August release showed that the number of job openings outpaced the number of job seekers, we will see if this trend has continued in July. The other release I will be focusing on will be the producer price index as supply chain bottlenecks and short supply of materials have pressured input prices in 2021.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 30 Aug 2021
There are a lot of headline capturing economic data releases during the week ahead, but the releases that will capture most of the headlines happen on Friday. Now that the Jackson Hole Symposium is behind us, we can turn our attention back to economic data. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated the economy has achieved the FOMC’s goal of “substantial further progress” towards its inflation objective and the labor market has made “clear progress” during his Jackson Hole speech. We will gather more information during the week ahead regarding how much progress the labor market made in August when the jobs report is released on Friday. Additionally, the health of the manufacturing and services sectors will be on display as the August PMIs are released.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 23 Aug 2021
There are a lot of headline capturing economic data releases during the week ahead, but the releases that will capture most of the headlines happen on Friday. July retail sales missed expectations while consumer confidence has waned recently which has concerned investors that consumer spending may soften. With the current economy dependent on the spending power of the consumer, the July consumer spending release will be widely followed and has the potential to move markets. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE), will be updated on Friday. Inflation has been a key driver of market movements recently and the topic of many water cooler discussions, so it will be widely watched as it is a primary data point in the Fed’s decision-making process regarding its tapering of asset purchases. Speaking of the Fed, the long-anticipated Jackson Hole symposium takes place during the end of the week. Traders will be tuned in to see if the Fed announces its plan to start tapering purchases and any signals regarding its accommodative monetary policies.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 16 Aug 2021
It’s a busy week ahead for economic data. The release of the July retail sales number will be high on my list of items to watch as consumer spending will continue to be a very important driver of the economic expansion moving forward. Furthermore, the consumer balance sheet remains strong as the job market is gaining momentum which should provide the consumer with more confidence to spend, however, the surging Delta variant may hinder some spending moving forward. Finally, the housing market will be back in focus during the upcoming week. Lumber prices have fallen, which should be music to the ears of builder’s and help increase new home inventory. However, mortgage rates are expected to rise, which will pressure home affordability.
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 09 Aug 2021
With the labor market making progress towards the Fed’s goal of “substantial” further progress, all eyes will turn back to inflation during the week ahead. Expectations are for inflation to remain elevated during the months to come, but the question remains - will the higher inflation force the hand of the Fed considering the recent string of strong jobs reports?
Topic Industry News
Zephyr Portfolio Analytics
By Ryan Nauman 12 Jul 2021
All eyes will be on the release of the June Consumer Price index during the week ahead. The Federal Reserve and inflation have been and will continue to be the drivers of market behavior, so it is not surprising most will be watching the inflation reading. The Fed’s tone recently turned hawkish in part due to the pace of rising inflation. If inflation continues to rise higher with no signs of slowing in the near term, the Fed’s tone might become more hawkish.
Topic Industry News
