Ryan Nauman

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 02.19.19

By Ryan Nauman 19 Feb 2019

I have mentioned before that the U.S. consumer will play a very important role in order for the current U.S. expansion to continue. This expansion has been aided over the years with accommodative monetary and pro-growth fiscal policies. Now that interest rates are higher and pro-growth initiatives, like tax cuts, may be harder to pass due to a split congress, more pressure will be placed on consumers to keep the party going. However, this week’s soft retail sales report brings into question whether the consumer is in a position or willing to spend enough to keep the expansion going. I do believe the soft retail sales report is an outlier, as consumers had to contend with a myriad of bad news during the end of 2018. Even if it is an outlier, the U.S. will need some help from the world’s largest economies to keep the expansion going, however, I think the help may be hard to find. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 02.11.19

By Ryan Nauman 11 Feb 2019

Momentum was building on hopes progress was being made on the trade front between the U.S. and China. However, the optimism was subdued after President Trump’s national economic council director Larry Kudlow said a “sizable distance” still exists between the U.S. and China on trade negotiations. Technological and structural issues remain the big hurdles. Additionally, CNBC reported that a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to take place prior to the March deadline. If no deal is struck by the fast approaching March 1st deadline, the tariffs on Chinese goods may jump to 25%. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 02.04.19

By Ryan Nauman 04 Feb 2019

The Federal Reserve unanimously left key policy rates unchanged and continued to stress its “patient” and “data driven” stance. The Fed statement removed "further gradual increases”, signaling a pause in rate hikes, and “autopilot” when referring to their balance sheet runoff. The change in the statement is in partly due to "muted inflation" and recent "global economic and financial developments." The Fed also changed their tone on the pace of U.S. economic growth from “strong” in December to a “solid” pace in early 2019. Here is a noteworthy statement from the Fed officials. “In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.” Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 01.28.19

By Ryan Nauman 28 Jan 2019

After 35 days, President Trump agreed to a deal to temporarily reopen the government on Friday. The question remains, will the government be able to come to an agreement before the temporary deal ends on February 15. All eyes will be on the government over the next three weeks to see if they can come to some sort of agreement on border security. The shutdown was on the verge of having a greater material impact on the U.S. economy, as the White House estimated the economy loses a little more than one-tenth of a percentage point each week of the shutdown. Assuming a deal does get completed, this temporary deal staved off what could have been a major detractor of economic growth. However, if a deal doesn’t get completed look for the negative backlash to grow stronger. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

ESG – A Trend That Pays Off in Performance?

Ryan Nauman 25 Jan 2019

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 01.22.19

By Ryan Nauman 22 Jan 2019

Optimism that a trade agreement will be made between the U.S. and China grew during the week. Equities rallied on Thursday on news that the U.S could ease tariffs on Chinese goods. However, the statements were retracted and markets fell from highs during the day. This news was followed up with a Bloomberg report that China is prepared to increase U.S. imports to $1 trillion a year. According to the report, China offered "a six-year buying spree to ramp up imports from the U.S., in a move that would reconfigure the relationship between the world's two largest economies." Markets rallied on the report, resulting in the S&P 500 exiting correction territory. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 01.14.19

By Ryan Nauman 14 Jan 2019

One of the primary causes of the market sell-off during the latter part of 2018 was the concern over the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too quickly and too high. These concerns have subsided slightly by recent dovish statements from Fed officials. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that the Fed will remain patient and data dependent regarding the health of the global and domestic economies when determining their future path of policy rates. Fed officials, Resengren, Clarida, and Evans echoed the “wait and see”, and “data dependent” approach during the week. This dovish tone has provided fuel for the recent rally, as expectations are for the Fed to pause their rate hikes during the first quarter of the year. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 01.07.19

By Ryan Nauman 07 Jan 2019

Concerns over slowing global growth were rekindled, as weak manufacturing numbers from China and Europe added more reasons to be concerned. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index showed that China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in 19 months. Despite the recent stimulus from the Chinese government, the economy continues to be sluggish. Investors continue to be concerned that the slowing growth in China and Europe will spread to other parts of the world. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 12.17.18

By Ryan Nauman 17 Dec 2018

For the first half of the week it looked like equities may finish the week in the green. The optimism came to a halt after Japan, China, and Europe released disappointing economic data, which stoked global growth concerns. Retail sales and industrial production in China missed expectations, while the Eurozone released disappointing flash PMIs. This poor economic data coincides with continued trade concerns, an Italian budget standoff, and continued uncertainty around Brexit, after Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 12.10.18

By Ryan Nauman 10 Dec 2018

During their meeting, Trump and Xi agreed to a trade truce and put a 90-day cease fire on the trade war. Markets opened higher Monday on the news. White House economic advisor, Larry Kudlow said that trade negations will happen quickly and result in a positive outcome within the 90 days. Questions remain, as conflicting statements from the White House regarding the start date of the 90-day truce added to the uncertainty. With time to digest the news, the Monday’s gains were quickly wiped away as the week moved alon. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 12.03.18

By Ryan Nauman 04 Dec 2018

All eyes will be on the much anticipated high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Trump and China President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit this weekend. Optimism is growing for a deal to be hatched, which I find unlikely. There are too many moving parts to conjure up a grand deal over a dinner date. Instead, I look for a constructive meeting that gives Trump enough motivation to delay/remove the upcoming increase in existing 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25%, while the two sides negotiate a trade pact. I think both sides are looking for some momentum – President Trump recently lost control of the House of Representatives and is looking for a “win”, while the Chinese economy is struggling and in need of a boost – which will lead to softened tones and a more constructive discussion. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.26.18

By Ryan Nauman 26 Nov 2018

Homebuilder confidence, measured by the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index, fell eight points to a reading of 60 in November. The 60 reading is the lowest since 2016 and missed forecasts of a flat reading. Effecting confidence was the increasing material costs, tight labor market, rising mortgage rates, and the shrinking supply of lots. Housing starts increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.228 million in October, which was a 1.5% increase according to the Commerce Department. The reading was a 2.9% decline from a year earlier. Permits decreased 0.6% from September and was 6% lower than the year prior. Additionally, housing affordability continues to drop due to increasing mortgage rates and home prices. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.19.18

By Ryan Nauman 19 Nov 2018

The Q3 earnings growth is on pace to be the largest growth since 2010. Despite the stellar earnings growth, markets have been volatile with sharp intra-day moves since the beginning of October. Investors have looked past the stellar earnings while focusing more on headline risks and securing profits rather than capitalizing on the solid earnings and falling valuations. There are notable risks at play - slowing global growth, trade concerns, and rising interest rates – which will continue for the time being. These risks have caused investors to take a defensive stance and until the risks subside, namely trade concerns, while we experienced heightened volatility. A resolution to trade will provide a much-needed boost to equities and help ease some global growth concerns. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.12.18

By Ryan Nauman 12 Nov 2018

Oil prices have fallen recently and we get more information regarding oil this week from OPEC and IEA. As the holiday shopping season gets closer, we get retail sales data, which may give us a little glimpse into what to expect moving forward. Investors will get more inflation data, which looks to stay around 2%, despite a tight labor market and increasing input costs. Finally, we are reaching the final leg of the third quarter earnings cycle. We will find out if retail stores capitalized on a strong consumer and what their expectations are for the upcoming holiday season. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.05.18

By Ryan Nauman 05 Nov 2018

Unless you have been living under a rock, you know midterm elections will take place Tuesday. I am very far from a political commentator, but I feel it is definitely worth discussing. There is a lot at stake here, will the GOP be able to retain control over both chambers of Congress, or will Democrats be able to wrestle away control of the House or the Senate or both? Below I take a look at some of the market implications. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!