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About Jonathan

Australia

+18 year(s) experience

Jonathan Cavenagh, Senior Market Strategist, IGM
Jonathan Cavenagh, Senior Market Strategist at Informa Global Markets, an Informa Financial Intelligence business, is a seasoned foreign exchange expert who advises clients on FX market trends and their potential impact on investments. He focuses primarily on Asian emerging markets including China, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore and India, but also covers Australia and New Zealand.

Jonathan, previously based in Singapore as Executive Director-Head of EM Asia FX Strategy for JPMorgan Chase & Co., specializes in interpreting FX market moves for clients, advising on their role in the Asia-Pacific region over short-, intermediate- and long-term horizons.

He shares thematic perspectives—whether on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, safe haven assets, European tensions or geopolitical events—with banks, asset managers, wealth managers and others looking to mitigate risk or maximize returns. He has been a regular commentator for CNBC, Bloomberg and other media outlets.

Prior to JPMorgan, Jonathan served as currency strategist at the Australian bank Westpac and as economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Outside the office, Jonathan spends much of his time with his three children—including a set of twins—coaching rugby and helping them pursue other athletic interests.

  • Bachelor, Economics (Honours); The University of Queensland

 

“The FX markets make large, rapid moves that sometimes have global reverberations. I’ve learned that if you misjudge or underestimate a currency’s influence, it can come back to bite you. My job is to keep a finger on the pulse of FX markets and deliver real-time insights to clients on what’s actually driving them.”


 

Analyst Articles

Articles by Jonathan

  • IGM FX and Rates

    Viewpoint: EM Asia FX markets - priming for a Blue Wave

    IGM FX and Rates

    As the US election draws closer, FX markets have started to aggressively price in the prospect of a Blue Wave, Democrat control of the White House, Congress and Senate; providing a good lead on medium term USD direction. Here, we take a closer look at the outlook for Asian currencies on a Biden win or surprise Trump victory, correlations and what has already been priced in…

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM FX and Rates

    APAC FX Focus: AUD/USD can fall further despite supportive commodity prices

    IGM APAC

    Yield momentum has clearly shifted against AUD/USD as the market moves to price in fresh easing in November’s meet. Higher commodities still underpin higher levels of AUD/USD fair value and will act as medium-term support. This is however unlikely to prevent lower A$ levels in the near term. Read more...

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM FX and Rates

    Viewpoint: Korean won outlook positive but be prepared for a bumpy ride

    IGM FX and Rates

    Cyclicals and the macro backdrop suggest the multi-month outlook for the Korean won is positive. However our fair value metrics highlight that the currency’s trend could still be a bumpy one. Read more...

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM FX and Rates

    Asian FX focus: The Start of Q4

    Chart Watch

    Asia FX has started Q4 much like how it traded the majority of Q3, rallying against the USD. With several markets closed at the beginning of the month (South Korea, Hong Kong and China), some caution is warranted in terms of the moves seen, as liquidity is probably affected. Nevertheless, it's hard not to come away with the impression that the bulls are very much in charge. Our sense had been we would enter a consolidation phase into October rather than see further sharp USD weakness. In this piece we present a series of charts to assess the bullish versus consolidation case for EM Asia FX. Read more...

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM FX and Rates

    Asian FX focus: Can IDR play catch up in Q4?

    IGM FX and Rates

    In this piece we highlight the underperformance of IDR FX within the USD/Asia bloc in Q3. We outline the likely drivers of this underperformance, with pay back from an exceptional Q2 performance, central bank intervention to accumulate USDs and weaker seasonality (particularly in August and September), as the most likely drivers. Lack of offshore capital inflows into the local bond market was also a contributor. Looking ahead into Q4 we argue that IDR can play catch up with the stronger EM Asia FX trend. Seasonal headwinds should dissipate, the central bank should be more comfortable with appreciation and guard against a break above 15000, whilst there is ample scope for offshore investors to re-allocate to Indonesia, given attractive real yields on offer and dovish Fed backdrop. We recognize that global equity market sentiment is weaker now, but USD/IDR spikes should be used as opportunities to average into a short USD position. Read more...

    Topic Industry News