skip to main content
Close Icon

In order to deliver a personalized, responsive service and to improve the site, we remember and store information about how you use it. This is done using simple text files called cookies which sit on your computer. By continuing to use this site and access its features, you are consenting to our use of cookies. To find out more about the way Informa uses cookies please go to our Cookie Policy page.

Global Search Configuration

About David

USA

+28 year(s) experience

David Ader, Chief Macro Strategist, headshot
As Chief Macro Strategist, David Ader focuses on interest rate movements and trading strategies over short, intermediate and long term horizons.
David is a macro strategist focusing on interest rate movements and trading strategies over short, intermediate and long term horizons. He takes an eclectic and broad view on market influences to develop directional and yield curve trade ideas directed to fixed-income portfolio managers and proprietary trading desks. While his focus is heavily on US interest rates and the Treasury market he does incorporate global macro themes into his strategies.

For the last eleven years David has been ranked as the #1 US Government Bond Strategist by Institutional Investor in their annual survey and has been #1 in Technical Analysis for the last five years. He publishes commentary daily and weekly that's sent to well over 3,000 institutional professionals. David is also frequently quoted in the financial media and spends a good deal of time and effort in presenting his ideas to institutional clients.

David studied at Columbia, Master from School of International and Public Affairs, Tufts U Bachelors of Art, Cum Laude

 

Analyst Articles

Articles by David

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Calling it a Range, Modest Upside a Tactical Play

    By David Ader 21 Jul 2017

    In the week just passed the bond market continued its bullish recovery though with far less of the fundamental impetus that followed the prior week’s litany of economic disappointments – ranging from the Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicator to NFIB, CPI, Retail Sales and U Michigan sentiment. The fact that I’m relaying those specific releases now underscores the fact that there wasn’t much new to add or detract from all that. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    The Selloff Was Technical, The Rally Has More To It

    By David Ader 14 Jul 2017

    In the week just passed the bond market had a modest correction that, unlike it’s bearish predecessor, strikes me as being as much about data and the Fed as oversold technicals and sentiment. In other words, while the weakness of the prior couple of weeks didn’t come with any especially strong data per se, the gains in the last few days had more sustainable, fundamental, elements culminating in the CPI and Retail Sales releases after the correction was already underway. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    If Selloff was Technical, It's Looking Tired

    By David Ader 07 Jul 2017

    In the week just passed, the bond market passed its equivalent of a kidney stone following through on weakness displayed the week before. I can certainly contrive to come up with broad implications for the drama (i.e. 10s up 28ish bp since June 14) and fundamental causation, but I’ll emphasize the verb ‘contrive’. With that in mind, the start of the big move coincided with ECB chief Draghi’s speech on June 27th (10s closed at 2.14% the prior session) suggesting that the ECB was going to soon embark on QE tapering. Add to that a steady spewing of hawkish-enough Fedspeak though not offering much more insight than has been available for weeks. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Bearish Steepening Technicals Rule Roost Despite Soft Data

    By David Ader 30 Jun 2017

    In the week just passed the market enjoyed a brisk technical sell-off abetted perhaps by a better balance of economic data than has been the case. In other words, the data, somewhat second tier, didn’t warrant the spotlight of, say, more critical impetuses like NFP, CPI, Retail Sales and some of the housing statistics. The reason I start off with a technical excuse is because the weakness started with Draghi’s comments early in the week and though the ECB offered an apology afterwards the market paid little heed. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Bearish Steepening Technicals Rule Roost Despite Soft Data

    By David Ader 30 Jun 2017

    In the week just passed the market enjoyed a brisk technical sell-off abetted perhaps by a better balance of economic data than has been the case. In other words, the data, somewhat second tier, didn’t warrant the spotlight of, say, more critical impetuses like NFP, CPI, Retail Sales and some of the housing statistics. The reason I start off with a technical excuse is because the weakness started with Draghi’s comments early in the week and though the ECB offered an apology afterwards the market paid little heed. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    A Bullish Spin on Balance Sheet Reduction

    By David Ader 24 Jun 2017

    In the week just passed, the bond market’s theme was of a flattening yield curve as the Fed delivered what glibly could be called a ‘hawkish’ hike while some key economic indicators like CPI and Retail Sales fell well short of expectations. For context, 2s reached new yield highs as the Fed adhered to its projections for more hikes, i.e. the dot plot, while 10s slipped to new yield lows last seen two days after the Presidential election and filling a gap left from that day. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com, Co...

    June Monthly Interest Rate Outlook

    By David Ader 05 Jun 2017

    When it comes to rate hikes, Chief Macro Strategist David Ader believes the Federal Reserve has made the switch from being data-dependent to forecast-dependent, and looks set to pull the trigger again this month. And market expectations, which are running close to 100% for another 0.25% increase, are supported by seasonal patterns. Read more from Informa Global Markets by clicking the button below.

    Topic Changing Rate Environment US Presidential Election Global Investment Flows

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com, Co...

    A June Hike is Well Priced in, Balance Sheet Redux Coming Soon

    By David Ader 26 May 2017

    In the week just passed the bond market gotten a respite from the ongoing tumult between the Trump Administration and, well, just about everyone else. It was a diplomatic trip for the President and a vacation for the rest of us. Call it a hiatus until his budget proposals are reworked, and in all likelihood dramatically so, and the investigations get underway. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com, Co...

    “Furor Puts the GOP Agenda at Risk”, Treasuries Eye Fed, D.C.

    By David Ader 19 May 2017

    Turmoil in Washington puts Trump’s fiscal ambitions in doubt; Treasuries rally on FTQ, low inflation continuum; Fed holds to more hawkish bias, helps flatten curve; Foreign buying picks up, not sure if a blip or a trend; Treasuries enter longest bullish phase of year. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • IGM FX and Rates, EPFR, iMoneyNet, Competitive Product Resea...

    Ader's Musings - A Time for Every Purpose

    By David Ader 13 Apr 2017

    In the week just passed, longer-end Treasury yields fell to lows not seen since November 18 while short-end yields meandered providing a flatter yield curve.

    Topic Changing Rate Environment