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About David

USA

+29 year(s) experience

David Ader, Chief Macro Strategist, headshot
As Chief Macro Strategist, David Ader focuses on interest rate movements and trading strategies over short, intermediate and long term horizons.
He takes an eclectic and broad view on market influences to develop directional and yield curve trade ideas directed to fixed-income portfolio managers and proprietary trading desks. While his focus is heavily on US interest rates and the Treasury market he does incorporate global macro themes into his strategies.

For the last eleven years David has been ranked as the #1 US Government Bond Strategist by Institutional Investor in their annual survey and has been #1 in Technical Analysis for the last five years. He publishes commentary daily and weekly that's sent to well over 3,000 institutional professionals. David is also frequently quoted in the financial media and spends a good deal of time and effort in presenting his ideas to institutional clients.

David studied at Columbia, Master from School of International and Public Affairs, Tufts U Bachelors of Art, Cum Laude

 

Analyst Articles

Articles by David

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Be Patient With Bullish Seasonals

    By David Ader 04 May 2018

    I get that despite all the data ahead of NFP, it was inevitable that a nuanced shift in the FOMC statement would garner more attention than was warranted.  I refer to the notion that “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the near term.”  The takeaway seems to be that if inflation ran a bit over that, or under for that matter, it wouldn’t compel the Fed to respond with more or less of the projected trajectory of hikes.  In other words, the market’s pricing is about right in the Fed’s view, though if it were to err I continue to think it should be to a third hike in December.  Perhaps Fed rhetoric is keeping some powder dry in light of heightened volatility and eccentricity -- I refer to the markets as much as politics. Read more David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    The 3% Solution?

    By David Ader 27 Apr 2018

    Less than two years ago, July 2016 to be precise, 10-yr Treasuries provided a parsimonious yield of 1.37%.  At the same time, 2s enticed with 58 bp which at the very least was more attractive than the 14 bp you could have gotten in 2011.  I put this out there for context against the brouhaha over 10s hitting 3% -- the first time they done that in over four years, as has been spotlighted by just about every reporter and related headline I’ve seen over the last several days.   Is 3% more important than any other level or the 18-fold rise in 2s? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Fed Speaks, Curve Flattens… not that Complicated

    By David Ader 20 Apr 2018

    I am not sure how complicated analysis over the bond market’s price action in the last couple of weeks needs to be; less, in this case, is more.  The main theme surely is the flattening curve and all that implies.  Behind that has to be ongoing Fedspeak that has only enhanced prospects of three more hikes this year.  Odds for a rate higher than 2.25%, implying three hikes, are still under 50% but have risen from 32%-ish on April 10 to near 44% now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Trading Headlines, Adult Swim Versus Kiddie Pool

    By David Ader 13 Apr 2018

    THIS TIME IT REALLY IS DIFFERENT When I started out as a strategist more than 30 years ago, I had the arrogance of youth, a long-term investing horizon and less wealth to worry about. Those three elements worked well back then, but not so much now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    In the Words of the Great one, “I’ve got a big Mouth”

    By David Ader 06 Apr 2018

    Fans of “The Honeymooners” will fondly recall one of the iconic lines that Ralph Kramden would shout out when he recognized the error of his ways; “I’ve got a BIG mouth.”  Would that we all could own up to such proclivities, which brings to mind the state of the markets and what’s behind it.  There are, of course, many things and it would be unfair to cite a singular source.  Still, in the current environment I think it’s fair to put the mike in front of Donald Trump (or take one away) who just in November said, “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me. I’ve always been great with money, I’ve always been great with jobs, that’s what I do. And I’ve done it well, I’ve done it really well, much better than people understand and they understand I’ve done well.” Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Sniffing out the Next Recession

    By David Ader 09 Mar 2018

    I was trying to fit in something about stormy days for trade (not the least being the January deficit), Productivity (which was 0% in Q4), Home Sales (a weak spring says the NAR, WSJ Rising Rates Pose Test for Housing Market), the broad declines in the Citi Economic Surprise indices, and all those departures from the Trump Administration, but figured that would be too cheap a shot. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Is There Anyone Left Who Likes Bonds?

    By David Ader 02 Mar 2018

    I don’t know but I heard Powell and I didn’t get much more of a hawkish sense than I had before; Dec Fed Fund futures only rose about 4 bp adding marginally odds of three hikes by the end of the year, and gave all that up by week’s end.  In context, the odds of 2% or more in December are near 68.5%% from just shy of 64% a week earlier.  Frankly, I think that pretty much prices three in for now and I’m not just trying to talk a bullish position. I just don’t see that it was a more determined hawkish lean than the market already had.  I mean, 4 bp… really? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    “The Bond Market's Doing Our Work For Us”

    By David Ader 23 Feb 2018

    I must admit I was surprised by the market’s reaction to the Fed Minutes and I was not alone (oh god, please don’t tell me he’s going to talk about Fed Fund futures!).   Indeed, Fed Fund futures in the moments after the release and into the aftermath as stocks reversed and bonds sold off did essentially nothing.  Of all things out there, surely Fed Fund futures would respond if the Minutes were somehow an alert to a more hawkish trajectory.  That they didn’t is, I think, is the crux of the matter; why everything else sold off is another story about which I can only speculate, especially the belly to 30s steepening.  There I’ll put it up to positions, but that’s cheap. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    A Respite

    By David Ader 16 Feb 2018

    “Coming on the heels of the massive tax cut approved in December, last week’s budget agreement was a breathtaking abdication of fiscal responsibility.”  Thus, begins Lou Crandall’s MMO for Feb 12 and he could have taken those words from my mouth but beat me to the punch.  Since I’ve stolen that, I might as well offer a version of a chart Lou used which is a variation on the theme of many I’ve sent out; the budget as a % of GDP. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Abby Someone. Who? Abby Normal.

    By David Ader 09 Feb 2018

    “I understand. You found paradise in America, had a good trade, made a good living…” thus begins the opening lines to “The Godfather” when Vito Corleone hears Bonasera’s request for justice.  Think about it; we found paradise with our 401ks, had on good trades, and all that.  Now, like Bonasera, we’d like the Don to make an offer the folks trading ETNs can’t refuse. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Sauce for Bond Goose and Equity Gander

    By David Ader 02 Feb 2018

    It’s hard to be a bond bull when everyone everywhere is telling you it’s the end of the bond bull market, as if the rise from the absolute lows 100 plus bp ago and five Fed hikes wasn’t enough.  Just about everything is about rising bond yields.  Front page headlines read like the WSJ’s “Government Bonds Swoon World-wide” and the FT’s “Bond investors’ dash for the doors fuels concern about strength of equities rally” and those are merely the tip of the iceberg. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Nothing Exceeds Like Excess

    By David Ader 26 Jan 2018

    There might be something disingenuous going on, but what do I know? I specifically refer to Washington, but I’ll expand that to the investment community, or at least some of it. In sum, let me rain on someone’s parade. I read this week that Trump Administration leaked a $ trillion infrastructure plan which a few hours after it was leaked went to $1.7 trillion as announced by Trump -- that’s not a leak but a gush. The plan has that 50% of the appropriations for it going towards grants to public and private initiatives. Here’s a link to the original report (https://goo.gl/D4ge74). I’m not sure how this all works, but according to some of the reports on this the Administration has sought $200 bn in grants over 10-yr to “leverage” investment from state, local and private sources” to get to that $1 trillion and presumably more to get to $1.7 trillion. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Join the Bond Bear Crowd

    By David Ader 19 Jan 2018

    Curious, have you come across anything recent about bonds yields rising?  A Google search on “end of bond bull market” pulled up 13.3 million articles about that in 0.45 seconds.  A search on “bond bear market” came up with 11.4 mn.  In context, anything related to bond bull or market came up with 1-4 mn references.  I guess that cat is out of the bag, huh? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    More Jitters Than News hit Bonds

    By David Ader 12 Jan 2018

    The bond market’s second week of the year was yet another setback aided by reports of diminished interest in things bond from Japan (reducing QE size) and reports that Chinese officials are recommending a slowing or halting its buying of Treasuries.  That, combined with a series of other nuances, drove a technical selloff and we all know that technical moves, in this case 10s breaking 2.50%, have a momentum all their own though requiring fundamental rationales.  The latter were around (see the above bullets) though supply when the market’s already on the defensive surely adds to the pressure. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Old News Still Sends Chill to Bond Market

    By David Ader 05 Jan 2018

    It’s been a tough start to the New Year if you’re a fan of the bond market.  Tuesday, for example, saw stories with headlines like “With Red Tape Losing Its Grip, Firms Ante Up” and that from the New York Times.  The story was about business confidence translating to investment. The same day the Wall Street Journal headlined “Sluggish Wages See Uptick” and “Pensions Keep Up Costly Market Bets.”  The former was about pay in low UNR areas rising at twice the national average and the latter about CalSTERs deciding NOT to sell $50 plus billion in stocks to move into bonds. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News