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About David

USA

+29 year(s) experience

David Ader, Chief Macro Strategist, headshot
As Chief Macro Strategist, David Ader focuses on interest rate movements and trading strategies over short, intermediate and long term horizons.
He takes an eclectic and broad view on market influences to develop directional and yield curve trade ideas directed to fixed-income portfolio managers and proprietary trading desks. While his focus is heavily on US interest rates and the Treasury market he does incorporate global macro themes into his strategies.

For the last eleven years David has been ranked as the #1 US Government Bond Strategist by Institutional Investor in their annual survey and has been #1 in Technical Analysis for the last five years. He publishes commentary daily and weekly that's sent to well over 3,000 institutional professionals. David is also frequently quoted in the financial media and spends a good deal of time and effort in presenting his ideas to institutional clients.

David studied at Columbia, Master from School of International and Public Affairs, Tufts U Bachelors of Art, Cum Laude

 

Analyst Articles

Articles by David

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Talking to Your Kids About the Deficit

    By David Ader 20 Jul 2018

    My son asked me the other day, a few weeks shy of his wedding I’ll proudly add, why the deficit as a result of the recent tax plan, was ‘bad’ if it raised the stock market.  How do you explain something so complicated to a mechanical engineer, smart, but focused on inventing stuff and whose main eye contact is with his feet?   I made it so simple even a member of Congress would get it.  I explained that I just wrote him a check for a hypothetical $1 mn, and asked what he would do with it.  He started a list of things -- ATV, snowmobile, chainsaw for starters -- to which I said, great, but you already owed $1 mn and have to pay off that debt, too, so now you owe $2 mn.  He furrowed his eyebrows a bit, thought for a moment, and asked if he’d already bought the ATV with the first million.  I said, no, he spent that on the dishwasher and A/C, which isn’t working, with a little bit to pay for college and a lot to pay for Grandma’s Social Security and Medicare.  “But she paid into Social Security!”  I advised, “Not as much as she’s getting.” Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Tariffs not a Negotiating Ploy

    By David Ader 13 Jul 2018

    I have to address those who think the tariffs are just part of a negotiating process that won’t be as ‘bad’ as threatened. Let me say at the onset that I’m aware of my proclivities towards pessimism and seeing the economy glass at, say, a 1.5-2% GDP trajectory for eternity. I try to work around that and probe for cavities in my arguments, but on this trade thing I’m coming up empty for the most part. I see tariffs as 1) hurting most US firms in a global economy, 2) creating a lot of uncertainty which will inhibit investment, 3) cause more job losses than job gains, 4) give us some inflation in the coming months that will, 5) encourage the Fed to hike, while 6) doing pretty much the same for trading counterparties and 7) leave the US as an entity, concept, leader in a disdained global position that will take years to unwind, if ever. And all that when we’re increasing the need for foreigners to buy our debt and reducing their ability to do so. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    What Will Cause the Next Recession?

    By David Ader 06 Jul 2018

    I may be affected by the blistering humidity I’ve experienced from Lake Memphremagog to Westport. Canadian lakes should not accompany 98 degrees and a similar humidity reading; it’s Canada for goodness sake! In any event, it’s with this droopy mindset that I figured I’d jump the yield curve story and talk about what could cause a recession by 2020. I do want to pay homage to Ben Levisohn’s lead piece in Barron’s, “The Bull’s Last Stand,” for inspiration. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Skipping Summer Doldrums This Year

    By David Ader 29 Jun 2018

    If I recall correctly, never an easy task, I concluded last week saying I was especially interested in the sentiment stuff coming out to see how the old trade-tariff excitement translated.  Well I suspect the best read has been provided by the stock market, which does not need much more commentary; for all the tax-cut brouhaha, the S&P 500 is right at the 50% mark of the year’s range (2700) and pretty much at last December’s highs.  A lot ventured yet nothing gained. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR Fund Flows, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagem...

    No Need to Wait for Curve Inversions

    By David Ader 22 Jun 2018

    An FT piece by John Authers made note that the defensive strategy of dividend investing isn’t working so well as yields have lifted.  I’ll show you a chart of what I’m looking at in a moment, but his piece has interesting insights that are worth your attention.   One is of the change in the composition of the S&P 500 in the context of index investing.  Dividend-plays tend to go with stocks that are lower quality within the S&P 500, and lower momentum as well, so are not in an economic sweet spot.  Further, and importantly, the dividend yield has edged below the 10-year creating a compelling competitive force. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Curve Speaks, I Listen

    By David Ader 15 Jun 2018

    Let’s talk a bit more about the FOMC statement and its cut.  Yes, I mean cut of these words; “The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.”   The Fed isn’t mincing words here.  What they are saying is they are more confident in the economy, inflation, and that the Funds rate will now move to the longer-run objectives.  It’s reasonable to see gradual to mean 25 bp hikes each quarter. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Trading Trade; Tax On, Tax Off

    By David Ader 08 Jun 2018

    The headline for this week doesn’t provoke much enthusiasm from me because I don’t know how to position for the back and forth on the Administration’s trade approach. Clearly, there are protectionists of the deep sort ‘advising’ Trump and then there are the cooler heads, i.e. Mnuchin, who more quietly seems to be trying to offset at least the rhetoric if not the deed. My visceral inclination is to step aside and wait it out as opposed to take heart or renewed angst over each and every twist to this story. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    May you Live in Less Interesting Times

    By David Ader 01 Jun 2018

    I’m back from a series of fortunate events not the least of which was watching, distantly, events from the touch of 3.12% 10-yr yields on May 18 to the plunge post Memorial Day to near 2.75%. I would like to think the time on my ‘back to the front tour’ of some European battlefields gives me perspective on many topics. First, we surely knew (but apparently didn’t heed) the softer tone to Europe as evidenced by the EZ Citi Surprise Index at -100 early in May, the weakest level in seven years. Something was underway already and weakness in this aggregate was evident across the globe. Yet rates continued to rise until quite recently. Read more from David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Be Patient With Bullish Seasonals

    By David Ader 04 May 2018

    I get that despite all the data ahead of NFP, it was inevitable that a nuanced shift in the FOMC statement would garner more attention than was warranted.  I refer to the notion that “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the near term.”  The takeaway seems to be that if inflation ran a bit over that, or under for that matter, it wouldn’t compel the Fed to respond with more or less of the projected trajectory of hikes.  In other words, the market’s pricing is about right in the Fed’s view, though if it were to err I continue to think it should be to a third hike in December.  Perhaps Fed rhetoric is keeping some powder dry in light of heightened volatility and eccentricity -- I refer to the markets as much as politics. Read more David Ader's latest musings...

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    The 3% Solution?

    By David Ader 27 Apr 2018

    Less than two years ago, July 2016 to be precise, 10-yr Treasuries provided a parsimonious yield of 1.37%.  At the same time, 2s enticed with 58 bp which at the very least was more attractive than the 14 bp you could have gotten in 2011.  I put this out there for context against the brouhaha over 10s hitting 3% -- the first time they done that in over four years, as has been spotlighted by just about every reporter and related headline I’ve seen over the last several days.   Is 3% more important than any other level or the 18-fold rise in 2s? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Fed Speaks, Curve Flattens… not that Complicated

    By David Ader 20 Apr 2018

    I am not sure how complicated analysis over the bond market’s price action in the last couple of weeks needs to be; less, in this case, is more.  The main theme surely is the flattening curve and all that implies.  Behind that has to be ongoing Fedspeak that has only enhanced prospects of three more hikes this year.  Odds for a rate higher than 2.25%, implying three hikes, are still under 50% but have risen from 32%-ish on April 10 to near 44% now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Trading Headlines, Adult Swim Versus Kiddie Pool

    By David Ader 13 Apr 2018

    THIS TIME IT REALLY IS DIFFERENT When I started out as a strategist more than 30 years ago, I had the arrogance of youth, a long-term investing horizon and less wealth to worry about. Those three elements worked well back then, but not so much now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    In the Words of the Great one, “I’ve got a big Mouth”

    By David Ader 06 Apr 2018

    Fans of “The Honeymooners” will fondly recall one of the iconic lines that Ralph Kramden would shout out when he recognized the error of his ways; “I’ve got a BIG mouth.”  Would that we all could own up to such proclivities, which brings to mind the state of the markets and what’s behind it.  There are, of course, many things and it would be unfair to cite a singular source.  Still, in the current environment I think it’s fair to put the mike in front of Donald Trump (or take one away) who just in November said, “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me. I’ve always been great with money, I’ve always been great with jobs, that’s what I do. And I’ve done it well, I’ve done it really well, much better than people understand and they understand I’ve done well.” Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Sniffing out the Next Recession

    By David Ader 09 Mar 2018

    I was trying to fit in something about stormy days for trade (not the least being the January deficit), Productivity (which was 0% in Q4), Home Sales (a weak spring says the NAR, WSJ Rising Rates Pose Test for Housing Market), the broad declines in the Citi Economic Surprise indices, and all those departures from the Trump Administration, but figured that would be too cheap a shot. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Is There Anyone Left Who Likes Bonds?

    By David Ader 02 Mar 2018

    I don’t know but I heard Powell and I didn’t get much more of a hawkish sense than I had before; Dec Fed Fund futures only rose about 4 bp adding marginally odds of three hikes by the end of the year, and gave all that up by week’s end.  In context, the odds of 2% or more in December are near 68.5%% from just shy of 64% a week earlier.  Frankly, I think that pretty much prices three in for now and I’m not just trying to talk a bullish position. I just don’t see that it was a more determined hawkish lean than the market already had.  I mean, 4 bp… really? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News