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About David

USA

+29 year(s) experience

David Ader, Chief Macro Strategist, headshot
As Chief Macro Strategist, David Ader focuses on interest rate movements and trading strategies over short, intermediate and long term horizons.
He takes an eclectic and broad view on market influences to develop directional and yield curve trade ideas directed to fixed-income portfolio managers and proprietary trading desks. While his focus is heavily on US interest rates and the Treasury market he does incorporate global macro themes into his strategies.

For the last eleven years David has been ranked as the #1 US Government Bond Strategist by Institutional Investor in their annual survey and has been #1 in Technical Analysis for the last five years. He publishes commentary daily and weekly that's sent to well over 3,000 institutional professionals. David is also frequently quoted in the financial media and spends a good deal of time and effort in presenting his ideas to institutional clients.

David studied at Columbia, Master from School of International and Public Affairs, Tufts U Bachelors of Art, Cum Laude

 

Analyst Articles

Articles by David

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    A Respite

    By David Ader 16 Feb 2018

    “Coming on the heels of the massive tax cut approved in December, last week’s budget agreement was a breathtaking abdication of fiscal responsibility.”  Thus, begins Lou Crandall’s MMO for Feb 12 and he could have taken those words from my mouth but beat me to the punch.  Since I’ve stolen that, I might as well offer a version of a chart Lou used which is a variation on the theme of many I’ve sent out; the budget as a % of GDP. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Abby Someone. Who? Abby Normal.

    By David Ader 09 Feb 2018

    “I understand. You found paradise in America, had a good trade, made a good living…” thus begins the opening lines to “The Godfather” when Vito Corleone hears Bonasera’s request for justice.  Think about it; we found paradise with our 401ks, had on good trades, and all that.  Now, like Bonasera, we’d like the Don to make an offer the folks trading ETNs can’t refuse. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Sauce for Bond Goose and Equity Gander

    By David Ader 02 Feb 2018

    It’s hard to be a bond bull when everyone everywhere is telling you it’s the end of the bond bull market, as if the rise from the absolute lows 100 plus bp ago and five Fed hikes wasn’t enough.  Just about everything is about rising bond yields.  Front page headlines read like the WSJ’s “Government Bonds Swoon World-wide” and the FT’s “Bond investors’ dash for the doors fuels concern about strength of equities rally” and those are merely the tip of the iceberg. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Nothing Exceeds Like Excess

    By David Ader 26 Jan 2018

    There might be something disingenuous going on, but what do I know? I specifically refer to Washington, but I’ll expand that to the investment community, or at least some of it. In sum, let me rain on someone’s parade. I read this week that Trump Administration leaked a $ trillion infrastructure plan which a few hours after it was leaked went to $1.7 trillion as announced by Trump -- that’s not a leak but a gush. The plan has that 50% of the appropriations for it going towards grants to public and private initiatives. Here’s a link to the original report (https://goo.gl/D4ge74). I’m not sure how this all works, but according to some of the reports on this the Administration has sought $200 bn in grants over 10-yr to “leverage” investment from state, local and private sources” to get to that $1 trillion and presumably more to get to $1.7 trillion. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Join the Bond Bear Crowd

    By David Ader 19 Jan 2018

    Curious, have you come across anything recent about bonds yields rising?  A Google search on “end of bond bull market” pulled up 13.3 million articles about that in 0.45 seconds.  A search on “bond bear market” came up with 11.4 mn.  In context, anything related to bond bull or market came up with 1-4 mn references.  I guess that cat is out of the bag, huh? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    More Jitters Than News hit Bonds

    By David Ader 12 Jan 2018

    The bond market’s second week of the year was yet another setback aided by reports of diminished interest in things bond from Japan (reducing QE size) and reports that Chinese officials are recommending a slowing or halting its buying of Treasuries.  That, combined with a series of other nuances, drove a technical selloff and we all know that technical moves, in this case 10s breaking 2.50%, have a momentum all their own though requiring fundamental rationales.  The latter were around (see the above bullets) though supply when the market’s already on the defensive surely adds to the pressure. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Old News Still Sends Chill to Bond Market

    By David Ader 05 Jan 2018

    It’s been a tough start to the New Year if you’re a fan of the bond market.  Tuesday, for example, saw stories with headlines like “With Red Tape Losing Its Grip, Firms Ante Up” and that from the New York Times.  The story was about business confidence translating to investment. The same day the Wall Street Journal headlined “Sluggish Wages See Uptick” and “Pensions Keep Up Costly Market Bets.”  The former was about pay in low UNR areas rising at twice the national average and the latter about CalSTERs deciding NOT to sell $50 plus billion in stocks to move into bonds. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Looking at 2018 and Beyond

    By David Ader 15 Dec 2017

    The end of the year is upon us. While markets move each and every day, we still like the calendar constraints to put a given year in context and so with this final Musings of 2017 I foray into 2018 and some big-picture thinking. I’m never wedded to my year-ahead views, but they serve as a roadmap and keep me aware of where things change (and where I’m wrong). With that, here are the key bullets on my mind. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Confessions of a Yield Curve Junkie

    By David Ader 08 Dec 2017

    It seems to me these days the flattening yield curve is our only constant. Perhaps I’m tired and certainly uninspired, but then a glance at a 10-year yield chart would tell you I have company. This could reflect how little new, critical, information is in the market; we have more Fed hikes being priced in, against still subdued inflation, and we can debate what the tax plan will actual do to boost GDP. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Hawkish Inputs, Steeper Outputs

    By David Ader 01 Dec 2017

    In a week laden with provocative headlines ranging from another North Korean nuclear test, GOP progress on the tax bill, more sexual harassment stuff (Garrison Keillor?!? Lake Wobegon hid some secrets!), Bitcoin @ 10,000, Tillerson out talk, Trump saying government shutdown is good for him, and splitting nuances between Powell and Yellen, the themes of steady long rates and shape of the yields remain rather the dominant market declarative. From a rate perspective, 10s and 30s are challenging what had been a narrow range while 2s grudgingly lift to 1.78% on hawkish Fed words. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Fed, Issuance, Inflation, Rebalancing = Flattening

    By David Ader 17 Nov 2017

    I’m going to focus on several charts that I’ve used very recently and which, considering recent price action, seem relevant. And that’s all the more so when coupled with some recent headlines. One chart I refer to shows the YTD total returns for the S&P 500 and the Aggregate Bond Index. The former is up 15% this year and the latter up 3%. To wit, as we approach the end of the year and confront cautionary warnings about equity valuations, ongoing moderate inflation figures, a hiking Fed and tax ‘reform’ uncertainties, booking profits and rebalancing the price action makes prudent sense. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    There are Many Factors Behind the Curve

    By David Ader 10 Nov 2017

    On Wednesday, the Credit Markets column in the WSJ told us “Bond Yield is Lowest in Weeks”, citing Jerome Powell’s nomination and the folderol with the GOP over taxes which got a hand when we learned the Senate GOP members were mulling over a one-year delay in implementation of the corporate tax cut amongst other divergences with the House Plan. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Steady at the Fed, Sideways in the Market

    By David Ader 03 Nov 2017

    First a word from the Department of Redundancy Department; a few weeks back I put out a series of charts on the rising Federal Deficit and the structure of the bond market. The idea is that with a rising deficit and extending maturity of the Treasury Market there will be a ‘forced’ need on behalf of investors, especially passive investors, to buy Treasuries to keep pace with changing benchmarks. BBG’s Liz Capo McCormick wrote about this as well last week in an article titled “Vanguard, BlackRock Seen as Forced Buyers in Fed's Bond Retreat.” {NSN OYOP4F6VDKHS <GO>}. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Leaning Bearish on Supply, Base Effects, Positions

    By David Ader 27 Oct 2017

    Apropos of nothing, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal last week in the Greater New York section on “How to Prepare for Disaster.” (https://goo.gl/UNSpWe) It was all about survival prepping and bug-out bags and the like in the event some major catastrophe hits New York though the advice offered applies to any urban center. Or suburban come to think of it. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Seasonal Historic Patterns Take a Holiday

    By David Ader 20 Oct 2017

    Before I begin this week’s decidedly Musings-lite, I thought it worth mentioning that the Beige Book got scant attention in the press; certainly, less than it usually does.  I think that’s telling in that it revealed painfully little that we didn’t already know and didn’t move the dial on odds of a December hike in a meaningful way.  To wit, moderate and modest are the words to describe the economy and have been the operative words for a few years now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News