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About David

USA

+28 year(s) experience

David Ader, Chief Macro Strategist, headshot
As Chief Macro Strategist, David Ader focuses on interest rate movements and trading strategies over short, intermediate and long term horizons.
David is a macro strategist focusing on interest rate movements and trading strategies over short, intermediate and long term horizons. He takes an eclectic and broad view on market influences to develop directional and yield curve trade ideas directed to fixed-income portfolio managers and proprietary trading desks. While his focus is heavily on US interest rates and the Treasury market he does incorporate global macro themes into his strategies.

For the last eleven years David has been ranked as the #1 US Government Bond Strategist by Institutional Investor in their annual survey and has been #1 in Technical Analysis for the last five years. He publishes commentary daily and weekly that's sent to well over 3,000 institutional professionals. David is also frequently quoted in the financial media and spends a good deal of time and effort in presenting his ideas to institutional clients.

David studied at Columbia, Master from School of International and Public Affairs, Tufts U Bachelors of Art, Cum Laude

 

Analyst Articles

Articles by David

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Fed, Issuance, Inflation, Rebalancing = Flattening

    By David Ader 17 Nov 2017

    I’m going to focus on several charts that I’ve used very recently and which, considering recent price action, seem relevant. And that’s all the more so when coupled with some recent headlines. One chart I refer to shows the YTD total returns for the S&P 500 and the Aggregate Bond Index. The former is up 15% this year and the latter up 3%. To wit, as we approach the end of the year and confront cautionary warnings about equity valuations, ongoing moderate inflation figures, a hiking Fed and tax ‘reform’ uncertainties, booking profits and rebalancing the price action makes prudent sense. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    There are Many Factors Behind the Curve

    By David Ader 10 Nov 2017

    On Wednesday, the Credit Markets column in the WSJ told us “Bond Yield is Lowest in Weeks”, citing Jerome Powell’s nomination and the folderol with the GOP over taxes which got a hand when we learned the Senate GOP members were mulling over a one-year delay in implementation of the corporate tax cut amongst other divergences with the House Plan. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Steady at the Fed, Sideways in the Market

    By David Ader 03 Nov 2017

    First a word from the Department of Redundancy Department; a few weeks back I put out a series of charts on the rising Federal Deficit and the structure of the bond market. The idea is that with a rising deficit and extending maturity of the Treasury Market there will be a ‘forced’ need on behalf of investors, especially passive investors, to buy Treasuries to keep pace with changing benchmarks. BBG’s Liz Capo McCormick wrote about this as well last week in an article titled “Vanguard, BlackRock Seen as Forced Buyers in Fed's Bond Retreat.” {NSN OYOP4F6VDKHS <GO>}. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Leaning Bearish on Supply, Base Effects, Positions

    By David Ader 27 Oct 2017

    Apropos of nothing, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal last week in the Greater New York section on “How to Prepare for Disaster.” (https://goo.gl/UNSpWe) It was all about survival prepping and bug-out bags and the like in the event some major catastrophe hits New York though the advice offered applies to any urban center. Or suburban come to think of it. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Seasonal Historic Patterns Take a Holiday

    By David Ader 20 Oct 2017

    Before I begin this week’s decidedly Musings-lite, I thought it worth mentioning that the Beige Book got scant attention in the press; certainly, less than it usually does.  I think that’s telling in that it revealed painfully little that we didn’t already know and didn’t move the dial on odds of a December hike in a meaningful way.  To wit, moderate and modest are the words to describe the economy and have been the operative words for a few years now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Some Counter Logic with Bonds and Deficit

    By David Ader 13 Oct 2017

    It wasn’t exactly a slow news week, but still the New York Times had the temerity to take away space from any number of its Harvey Weinstein updates to tell us, way back on the 4th page of the business, that “Fed Still Puzzled by Inflation, but Rate Increase Is on Track.”  This has been the story for a year at least and the question of why inflation is low continues to give way to the Fed’s confidence in its models that it will eventually rise.   I get they want to hike, I guess everyone does.  Why they want to hike is another story though centered essentially on the Phillips curve which is rather a faulty, but persistent, argument. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Why This Hiking Cycle Might be Different

    By David Ader 06 Oct 2017

    When do we stop listening to Yellen?  This is, of course, a reference to the impending potential change in her career.  Bear in mind we will likely be listening to her even if she’s out of the Fed – brains, insight and experience do count for something – but her relevance will, like other ex-Fed officials, tend to diminish with time. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Tax Plan will Boost Deficit, but the Main Game for now

    By David Ader 29 Sep 2017

    THE stories behind the sharp rise in yields over the last two weeks come from the two so obvious areas it’s hard to try and nuance the price action to anything else. There was the FOMC, of course, largely seen as more hawkish (I’d say stubbornly hawkish) in its gentle bias, and the Administration’s rapid move to push for tax reform. The former hit the front end and flattened the curve; the latter hit further out the curve and steepened it back up. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Range Changed, but Don’t see Much More Rally

    By David Ader 08 Sep 2017

    It is a rare event indeed to see a front page of the WSJ start with a headline; “Array of Threats Stirs Up Markets” – and then write what’s effectively a Credit Markets column telling you what’s up with interest rates. It’s a fine story, make no mistake, but focuses one’s attention on the recent and still more immediate story which basically captures what’s motivating moves in Treasury yields. To wit, we have 1) Hurricane Irma, on the heels of 2) Hurricane Harvey, 3) ongoing to expanding tensions with North Korea, 4) dovish Fed comments from Fed doves, 5) the steady litany of low inflation figures, and concludes with structural element such as, 6) ‘potentially intractable forces, such as globalization and technological advances’ and global debt levels and the aging population. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Data Balance Tips Scales a Tad to Bulls

    By David Ader 01 Sep 2017

    In the week just passed, the Treasury market eked out some further gains largely on the back of non-economic events like North Korea’s missile across Japan and the floods in Texas where some estimates of damage exceed $100 bn to as much as $190 bn (AccuWeather). The economic impact, of course, remains an unknown but that it will initially be a drag on GDP is understood. Katrina cost $160 bn. The very tame NFP report came after the fact but does enhance a bullish perspective. Job gains were weaker-than-expected at 156K overall, 41k worth of downward revisions, an uptick in UNR and remarkably tame 0.1% rise in average hourly earnings. Ouch. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

    Topic Industry News

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    #Rangebound . . . Yawn, Waiting.

    By David Ader 25 Aug 2017

    Trump threatens US government shutdown over funding for his wall. Markets shake a little more. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Politics, Geo and Otherwise, Encourage ‘Bullish’ Range Bias

    By David Ader 18 Aug 2017

    The week just passed was a back and forth story for the Treasury market with, initially, a relaxation of tensions over North Korea edging rates higher which got a further lift on the back of a firm Retail Sales report and its prior upward revisions. That pressure reversed when Trump came back with yet another fiery condemnation of all sides in the Charlottesville altercation saying that both sides, including the apparently newly formed ‘alt left’, were behind the violence and equating Confederate generals to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. The latter pair, as I recall, were in favor of creating a union vs. breaking it up so I’m not sure the analogy fits, but there you go. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Bullish Edge in Range Context

    By David Ader 11 Aug 2017

    I suppose that in the week just passed the big story that kept yields from doing anything major (other than edging lower sans drama) was the rhetoric between Trump and Kim Jong Un which is notable in itself. This hints that the domestic data was worthy of a yawn, which it was, even though my take was that it points to ongoing slow-mo growth that doesn’t do a thing to threaten more intense Fed action or provide solace to the bond bears out there. Nor, for that matter, does it do all that much for the bulls. Fence sitters rejoice. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    On to Neutral, Balance Between Labor and Inflation and Demand

    By David Ader 04 Aug 2017

    In the week just passed, Treasuries bull flattened largely on the back of a set of soft data leading up to NFP and ancillary issues that have been ongoing (Washington stuff, FX influences) and a teeny bit of reduction in the market’s odds for a Fed hike later this year. Dec Fed Funds edged to 1.21+%, the lowest they’ve been since the middle of May. Hike probabilities sank to 36.5% for that month. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

  • EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthManagement.com

    Defensive Into Data Mass, Low Inflation Providing Little Solace

    By David Ader 28 Jul 2017

    In the week just passed perhaps the most anticipated event, though anticipated largely in void of any drama, was the FOMC meeting which delivered exactly what was expected. In short, there were only very modest changes to the words from the June meeting; the market’s subdued reaction reveals all. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.