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David Ader

Chief Macro Strategist


David Ader

David specializes in

  • Investment Analysis
  • Stock Flows

+ 29 year(s) experience


David Ader Featured on MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffee

By David Ader 13 Sep 2017

David Ader was featured on a segment of Chuck Jaffee’s MoneyLife radio show called “The Big Interview.”

Topic Brexit Industry News US Presidential Election Risk

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

On to Neutral, Balance Between Labor and Inflation and Demand

By David Ader 04 Aug 2017

In the week just passed, Treasuries bull flattened largely on the back of a set of soft data leading up to NFP and ancillary issues that have been ongoing (Washington stuff, FX influences) and a teeny bit of reduction in the market’s odds for a Fed hike later this year. Dec Fed Funds edged to 1.21+%, the lowest they’ve been since the middle of May. Hike probabilities sank to 36.5% for that month. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Bullish Edge in Range Context

By David Ader 11 Aug 2017

I suppose that in the week just passed the big story that kept yields from doing anything major (other than edging lower sans drama) was the rhetoric between Trump and Kim Jong Un which is notable in itself. This hints that the domestic data was worthy of a yawn, which it was, even though my take was that it points to ongoing slow-mo growth that doesn’t do a thing to threaten more intense Fed action or provide solace to the bond bears out there. Nor, for that matter, does it do all that much for the bulls. Fence sitters rejoice. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Politics, Geo and Otherwise, Encourage ‘Bullish’ Range Bias

By David Ader 18 Aug 2017

The week just passed was a back and forth story for the Treasury market with, initially, a relaxation of tensions over North Korea edging rates higher which got a further lift on the back of a firm Retail Sales report and its prior upward revisions. That pressure reversed when Trump came back with yet another fiery condemnation of all sides in the Charlottesville altercation saying that both sides, including the apparently newly formed ‘alt left’, were behind the violence and equating Confederate generals to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. The latter pair, as I recall, were in favor of creating a union vs. breaking it up so I’m not sure the analogy fits, but there you go. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

#Rangebound . . . Yawn, Waiting.

By David Ader 25 Aug 2017

Trump threatens US government shutdown over funding for his wall. Markets shake a little more. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

IGM FX and Rates, EPFR, iMoneyNet, Competitiv...

Ader's Musings - A Time for Every Purpose

By David Ader 13 Apr 2017

In the week just passed, longer-end Treasury yields fell to lows not seen since November 18 while short-end yields meandered providing a flatter yield curve.

Topic Changing Rate Environment

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Defensive Into Data Mass, Low Inflation Providing Little Solace

By David Ader 28 Jul 2017

In the week just passed perhaps the most anticipated event, though anticipated largely in void of any drama, was the FOMC meeting which delivered exactly what was expected. In short, there were only very modest changes to the words from the June meeting; the market’s subdued reaction reveals all. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

If Selloff was Technical, It's Looking Tired

By David Ader 07 Jul 2017

In the week just passed, the bond market passed its equivalent of a kidney stone following through on weakness displayed the week before. I can certainly contrive to come up with broad implications for the drama (i.e. 10s up 28ish bp since June 14) and fundamental causation, but I’ll emphasize the verb ‘contrive’. With that in mind, the start of the big move coincided with ECB chief Draghi’s speech on June 27th (10s closed at 2.14% the prior session) suggesting that the ECB was going to soon embark on QE tapering. Add to that a steady spewing of hawkish-enough Fedspeak though not offering much more insight than has been available for weeks. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.