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38 Total results for product and free and sample content found

Analyst

David Ader

Chief Macro Strategist

USA

David Ader

David specializes in

  • Investment Analysis
  • Stock Flows

+ 28 year(s) experience

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David Ader Featured on MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffee

By David Ader 13 Sep 2017

David Ader was featured on a segment of Chuck Jaffee’s MoneyLife radio show called “The Big Interview.”

Topic Brexit Industry News US Presidential Election Risk

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Range Changed, but Don’t see Much More Rally

By David Ader 08 Sep 2017

It is a rare event indeed to see a front page of the WSJ start with a headline; “Array of Threats Stirs Up Markets” – and then write what’s effectively a Credit Markets column telling you what’s up with interest rates. It’s a fine story, make no mistake, but focuses one’s attention on the recent and still more immediate story which basically captures what’s motivating moves in Treasury yields. To wit, we have 1) Hurricane Irma, on the heels of 2) Hurricane Harvey, 3) ongoing to expanding tensions with North Korea, 4) dovish Fed comments from Fed doves, 5) the steady litany of low inflation figures, and concludes with structural element such as, 6) ‘potentially intractable forces, such as globalization and technological advances’ and global debt levels and the aging population. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Data Balance Tips Scales a Tad to Bulls

By David Ader 01 Sep 2017

In the week just passed, the Treasury market eked out some further gains largely on the back of non-economic events like North Korea’s missile across Japan and the floods in Texas where some estimates of damage exceed $100 bn to as much as $190 bn (AccuWeather). The economic impact, of course, remains an unknown but that it will initially be a drag on GDP is understood. Katrina cost $160 bn. The very tame NFP report came after the fact but does enhance a bullish perspective. Job gains were weaker-than-expected at 156K overall, 41k worth of downward revisions, an uptick in UNR and remarkably tame 0.1% rise in average hourly earnings. Ouch. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

#Rangebound . . . Yawn, Waiting.

By David Ader 25 Aug 2017

Trump threatens US government shutdown over funding for his wall. Markets shake a little more. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Politics, Geo and Otherwise, Encourage ‘Bullish’ Range Bias

By David Ader 18 Aug 2017

The week just passed was a back and forth story for the Treasury market with, initially, a relaxation of tensions over North Korea edging rates higher which got a further lift on the back of a firm Retail Sales report and its prior upward revisions. That pressure reversed when Trump came back with yet another fiery condemnation of all sides in the Charlottesville altercation saying that both sides, including the apparently newly formed ‘alt left’, were behind the violence and equating Confederate generals to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. The latter pair, as I recall, were in favor of creating a union vs. breaking it up so I’m not sure the analogy fits, but there you go. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Bullish Edge in Range Context

By David Ader 11 Aug 2017

I suppose that in the week just passed the big story that kept yields from doing anything major (other than edging lower sans drama) was the rhetoric between Trump and Kim Jong Un which is notable in itself. This hints that the domestic data was worthy of a yawn, which it was, even though my take was that it points to ongoing slow-mo growth that doesn’t do a thing to threaten more intense Fed action or provide solace to the bond bears out there. Nor, for that matter, does it do all that much for the bulls. Fence sitters rejoice. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Analyst

John Kamerdin

Senior US Treasuries Analyst

USA

John Kamerdin

John specializes in

  • Rates and FX

+ 46 year(s) experience

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

On to Neutral, Balance Between Labor and Inflation and Demand

By David Ader 04 Aug 2017

In the week just passed, Treasuries bull flattened largely on the back of a set of soft data leading up to NFP and ancillary issues that have been ongoing (Washington stuff, FX influences) and a teeny bit of reduction in the market’s odds for a Fed hike later this year. Dec Fed Funds edged to 1.21+%, the lowest they’ve been since the middle of May. Hike probabilities sank to 36.5% for that month. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Defensive Into Data Mass, Low Inflation Providing Little Solace

By David Ader 28 Jul 2017

In the week just passed perhaps the most anticipated event, though anticipated largely in void of any drama, was the FOMC meeting which delivered exactly what was expected. In short, there were only very modest changes to the words from the June meeting; the market’s subdued reaction reveals all. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Calling it a Range, Modest Upside a Tactical Play

By David Ader 21 Jul 2017

In the week just passed the bond market continued its bullish recovery though with far less of the fundamental impetus that followed the prior week’s litany of economic disappointments – ranging from the Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicator to NFIB, CPI, Retail Sales and U Michigan sentiment. The fact that I’m relaying those specific releases now underscores the fact that there wasn’t much new to add or detract from all that. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

The Selloff Was Technical, The Rally Has More To It

By David Ader 14 Jul 2017

In the week just passed the bond market had a modest correction that, unlike it’s bearish predecessor, strikes me as being as much about data and the Fed as oversold technicals and sentiment. In other words, while the weakness of the prior couple of weeks didn’t come with any especially strong data per se, the gains in the last few days had more sustainable, fundamental, elements culminating in the CPI and Retail Sales releases after the correction was already underway. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.