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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 01.21.20

By Ryan Nauman 21 Jan 2020

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap

The fourth quarter earnings season picks up steam during the upcoming week. As I mentioned above, expectations remain muted for this cycle, however, there are some big names reporting during the upcoming week that should be closely watched. Below are some that I will be focusing on. The upcoming economic data release is light due to the shortened trading week, however, the Markit flash PMIs will be widely watched. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 01.20.20

20 Jan 2020

The Context 01.13.20

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The EUR Week – Bias is Neutral-Bullish A plethora of firm US data last week, all worked to push Eur/Usd below 1.1100, while positive words from Fed's Harker on growth, a solid start to US earnings season and further subsequent gains for US equity futures had also aided Usd strength. Focus now shifts to the ECB policy decision this week, and we suspect the meeting might be enough to spur a more defiant dip-buying approach. Strengthening CEE Inflationary Pressures Call For Tighter Monetary Policy Tight labour markets and rising consumption have been a supportive factor for CEE inflation and together with firmer oil price pressures, have pushed CPI to the limits of policymakers' tolerance levels and beyond in recent months. Stuck in The Middle China removed from the US FX manipulator list. US Treasuries hardly react. Phase 1 deal signed. Little reaction. Beige Book showing labour shortages (which in theory should push up wages). Nada. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 01.13.20

13 Jan 2020

The Context 01.13.20

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: US High Grade: Bond Issuance Frenzy May Not Last Long The US high-grade bond markets may have ended the week on a euphoric high clocking over $65bln in volume making it the third busiest on record, but this frenzy of debt issuance is unlikely to last beyond a few months, said strategists and bankers. The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish A look at our dashboard shows BOE H1 rate cut probability up to 63%, a series high following dovish comments from MPCers - Carney, Tenreyro and Vlieghe - in the last week. European FIG Snapshot: Huge Supply Underpinned by Massive Demand While a rush to lock in funding during the early part of January is nothing new, the sheer scale and pace of this year's scramble to do so has taken many by surprise. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 01.13.20

By Ryan Nauman 13 Jan 2020

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 01.13.20

Low inflation has been a primary consideration during the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing in 2019, while, the week ahead will give us more insight on the current level of inflation. We will also learn more about the willingness of the U.S. consumer to spend when the retail sales numbers are released on Thursday. Finally, we get our first glimpse at the health of the housing market in 2020, which stabilized in 2019 thanks to lower mortgage rates. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 12.16.19

16 Dec 2019

The Context 12.16.19

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: European High Yield: Merry Berry Brings Festive Cheer High yield issuance rolled on for another week as Berry Global braved last week's full diary of event risk (Fed and ECB rate decisions, a UK election, and looming US tariff deadline of Dec 15). And given that potentially volatile backdrop it is helpful to be able to tap into some of the popular motifs in high yield and Berry Global was certainly able to do that… Turkey’s Growth Dilemma Could Destabilise Lira For those worrying about Turkey, the most pressing fundamental issue that Turkish bears should focus on heading into 2020 is the basic dilemma of the government's short-term focus on growth via credit, which carries the risk of destabilising the Lira, as it did in 2018. The SEK Week - Bias is Bullish It's the Riksbank decision this week (Thursday) and it's almost certain that the Bank will deliver a 25bps hike. Recall at its last meeting, the Riksbank left rates on hold at -0.25% but hawkishly revealed that rates will "probably be raised in Dec to zero". Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 12.16.19

By Ryan Nauman 16 Dec 2019

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 12.16.19

The week ahead is full of noteworthy economic data releases. The initial PMIs will be widely watched to see if the manufacturing sector has found a bottom. Additionally, data on the housing sector will grab headlines, as we find out if low mortgage rates will continue to boost the sector. Finally, we will get another look at how the U.S. economy performed during the third quarter when the revised GDP report is released. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 12.09.19

09 Dec 2019

The Context 12.09.19

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral Going into the polling day, we'll maintain a buy dips bias, but expect activity to slow pretty dramatically over coming sessions unless polls take a surprise turn. If Johnson can increase his lead further and maintain a solid 14-15% lead into Thursday then we could see GBP/USD ticking higher still towards 1.32-33, even 1.3500, but in truth we expect more cautious trade than that. South African Bond Investors Are Not Waiting Around For a Moody's Cut to Junk South Africa's benchmark 10-year bond yield is trading at more than 9% and with inflation running at less than half that, means that the government is forced to borrow at one of the highest real rates for any investment grade credit. Asia Credit Insight: Chinese Issuers Fuel Increase in November 69 issuers raised a total of US$33.637bn of funding in the APAC primary US$ market in the month of November from 78 separate tranches, which registered a 4.4% increase month-on-month and a 2.9% rise year-on-year. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

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Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 12.09.19

By Ryan Nauman 09 Dec 2019

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 12.09.19

It is Fed week again! Next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell’s follow up press conference lacks some anticipation, as expectations are high that the Fed will keep key short-term benchmark rates in a range of 1.5% - 1.75%. With most expecting the Fed to take a pause in cutting rates, attention will be turned to the Fed’s statement and the follow up press conference to try and decipher the Fed’s monetary policy in 2020. As for economic data, the headliners will be the consumer price index and retail sales. Muted inflation was a primary reason why the Fed cut rates in 2019, and expectations are for inflation to remain soft moving forward. With the holiday season in full stride, retail sales will be widely watched and an important indicator on if the strong consumer will continue to shoulder the U.S. economy. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News