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IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 12.02.19

02 Dec 2019

The Context 12.02.19

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro High Yield: November Volumes at a High November took the baton from October and ran with it, as high yield corporate issuance (ex financials) in euro topped the previous month's issuance which itself was a two-year high water mark. On a quarterly basis, Q4 is already the busiest quarter in two years. The AUD Week - Bias is Bearish This week, the RBA meet for the last time this year, and while no change is forecast (just 10% chance of a cut being priced), focus will be on the Bank's forward guidance. Turkey Testing U.S. Senators’ Sanctions Patience The Turkish military started testing its S-400 missile defence systems and as planned the system, which Turkey controversially agreed to purchase from Russia in 2017, is on track to be fully operational by April. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 11.25.19

25 Nov 2019

The Context 11.25.19

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro Corp Comment: Multi-Tranchers Drive a Bumper Week, Investors Remain Receptive Investment grade corporate issuers have now led overall euro supply for four consecutive weeks with the asset class last week accounting for 53.7% of the aggregate EUR28.475bn to print in the single currency. Outlook Still Constructive For EM Local Currency Bonds After This Year's Rally Sluggish growth, together with muted inflation has resulted in a broad shift towards more accommodative monetary policy globally and ultimately created compelling opportunities in EM local currency bonds. The JPY Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish Despite a number of firms calling out a lower Usd/Jpy in recent weeks we cannot help but admire its ongoing resilience. We are happy to stay long admittedly at a good level at 107.99 for 111.00-plus on a seasonality basis. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 11.18.19

18 Nov 2019

The Context 11.18.19

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Brl/Mxn Corrects Lower, But Still See Mxn Underperformance in Medium-term Due to Mexico's challenging GDP growth outlook, the reduction of the real rate and lingering risk of credit rating downgrades, we still see scope for Mxn underperformance in the medium-term. Whilst the Brl rally has paused, and for good reason, the arguments we presented for Brazilian economic outperformance remain. Euro Corp Comment: Issuance Slows But it Remains a Seller’s Market It was another active week for the European corporate bond market where another EUR7.455bn printed in the single currency courtesy of eleven issuers (13 tranches). Whilst being a decent total, it did however mark a considerable slowdown from the jumbo EUR11.25bn that hit the tape the week prior. What remained constant though was that there remained plenty of cash directed toward new corporate offerings… The CAD Week - Bias is Neutral to Bearish We get some major releases this week out of Canada, with manufacturing sales, CPI and retail sales being released on Tue, Wed and Fri respectively, but ultimately the most influential topic for the BoC is the ongoing trade war and its effect on domestic industry. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics S...

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.18.19

By Ryan Nauman 18 Nov 2019

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.18.19

Over the past few months the housing market has solidified as low mortgage rates have brought buyers back to the market, however, inventory remains low. The week ahead will provide us with more information regarding the housing market turnaround. Additionally, we will receive the initial flash PMIs on the manufacturing and services sectors. Markets have priced in weak manufacturing numbers, however, if there is a bad miss on the downside, markets could react negatively. We are near the third quarter earnings cycle finish line, which has been better-than-expected to this point. The upcoming week is headlined by retailers, which will be widely watched. The economic expansion has been shouldered by the consumer, and in order for the expansion to continue, the consumer will need to continue to spend. We will find out if these brick-and-mortar retailers have capitalized on the strong consumer, what challenges they face with six less shopping days during the shopping season, and if they provide any insight on consumer spending trends moving forward. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 11.11.19

11 Nov 2019

The Context 11.11.19

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The Power of Trade Talk Given events towards the end of last week, focus will fall on any details of the Phase 1 trade deal currently under negotiation between the US and China. The moves were sharp in debt markets which suggests any sort of negative news flow will lead to an equally sharp reversal. The NZD Week - Bias is Neutral RBNZ rate cut probability for Nov, i.e. early Wed, is back at 60%. On balance, we think the RBNZ could wait, but suspect the market will stay cautious. Outlook Into Year-end Now Looks More Positive For EMs The Emerging Market carry trade is so far heading for its best quarter in two (and possibly in four if upside persists), and in an environment of still ultra-low global bond yields and with some concerns starting to creep in over equity valuations after a surge in stocks, currency related strategies may find particular favour among investors. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics S...

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.11.19

By Ryan Nauman 11 Nov 2019

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.11.19

While we are entering the later stages of the third quarter earnings cycle, the week ahead includes a few big-name earnings releases, including Walmart, Cisco, and some pot stocks. As for economic data, the CPI reading will be widely watched as most expect inflation to remain muted, furthermore, retail sales will be a popular release as strong consumer spending remains vital for the expansion to continue. Additionally, next week is a busy week for Federal Reserve talk, as Chairman Powell is scheduled to testify, and numerous Fed officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

The Context 11.04.19

04 Nov 2019

The Context 11.04.19

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The AUD Week - Bias is Bullish The RBA decision takes centre stage this week, and the Bank is widely forecast to keep rates steady at 0.75%, with a mere 6% chance of a cut currently priced. Evidence of Damage Wrought. Little Central Bankers Can Do South Korean exports continue to plummet (-14.7% y/y in October) indicative of the slowdown in both global trade and in turn economic growth. That the US isn’t insulated from these dynamics was made clear by the Fed chief after the October FOMC. Still, domestic demand continues to bound along at a healthy pace in the US and remains supportive in other jurisdictions… Pinera Gives More Ground to Chilean Protesters, But is CLP Ripe For Bulls? There have been over ten days of riots, protests and strikes in Chile, and after adopting a number of stances (from tough to conciliatory) and failing to quell the unrest with a raft of proposed policy changes, President Pinera has given in to demands and fired eight ministers, including the interior, finance and economy ministers. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News

PSN Enterprise - Separate Account Analytics S...

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.04.19

By Ryan Nauman 04 Nov 2019

Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap 11.04.19

The third quarter earnings cycle continues to roll along during the week ahead. Meanwhile, the services sector will be examined with the release of the Markit services PMI reading and ISM non-manufacturing index. With the manufacturing sector showing some promise that it may have bottomed, it will be important for the services sector to remain on solid footing to support the economy while the manufacturing sector recovers. Read more from Ryan Nauman's Weekly Recap and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

Topic Industry News