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77 Total results for product and free and sample content found

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Fed Speaks, Curve Flattens… not that Complicated

By David Ader 20 Apr 2018

I am not sure how complicated analysis over the bond market’s price action in the last couple of weeks needs to be; less, in this case, is more.  The main theme surely is the flattening curve and all that implies.  Behind that has to be ongoing Fedspeak that has only enhanced prospects of three more hikes this year.  Odds for a rate higher than 2.25%, implying three hikes, are still under 50% but have risen from 32%-ish on April 10 to near 44% now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Trading Headlines, Adult Swim Versus Kiddie Pool

By David Ader 13 Apr 2018

THIS TIME IT REALLY IS DIFFERENT When I started out as a strategist more than 30 years ago, I had the arrogance of youth, a long-term investing horizon and less wealth to worry about. Those three elements worked well back then, but not so much now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

In the Words of the Great one, “I’ve got a big Mouth”

By David Ader 06 Apr 2018

Fans of “The Honeymooners” will fondly recall one of the iconic lines that Ralph Kramden would shout out when he recognized the error of his ways; “I’ve got a BIG mouth.”  Would that we all could own up to such proclivities, which brings to mind the state of the markets and what’s behind it.  There are, of course, many things and it would be unfair to cite a singular source.  Still, in the current environment I think it’s fair to put the mike in front of Donald Trump (or take one away) who just in November said, “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me. I’ve always been great with money, I’ve always been great with jobs, that’s what I do. And I’ve done it well, I’ve done it really well, much better than people understand and they understand I’ve done well.” Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Sniffing out the Next Recession

By David Ader 09 Mar 2018

I was trying to fit in something about stormy days for trade (not the least being the January deficit), Productivity (which was 0% in Q4), Home Sales (a weak spring says the NAR, WSJ Rising Rates Pose Test for Housing Market), the broad declines in the Citi Economic Surprise indices, and all those departures from the Trump Administration, but figured that would be too cheap a shot. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Is There Anyone Left Who Likes Bonds?

By David Ader 02 Mar 2018

I don’t know but I heard Powell and I didn’t get much more of a hawkish sense than I had before; Dec Fed Fund futures only rose about 4 bp adding marginally odds of three hikes by the end of the year, and gave all that up by week’s end.  In context, the odds of 2% or more in December are near 68.5%% from just shy of 64% a week earlier.  Frankly, I think that pretty much prices three in for now and I’m not just trying to talk a bullish position. I just don’t see that it was a more determined hawkish lean than the market already had.  I mean, 4 bp… really? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

“The Bond Market's Doing Our Work For Us”

By David Ader 23 Feb 2018

I must admit I was surprised by the market’s reaction to the Fed Minutes and I was not alone (oh god, please don’t tell me he’s going to talk about Fed Fund futures!).   Indeed, Fed Fund futures in the moments after the release and into the aftermath as stocks reversed and bonds sold off did essentially nothing.  Of all things out there, surely Fed Fund futures would respond if the Minutes were somehow an alert to a more hawkish trajectory.  That they didn’t is, I think, is the crux of the matter; why everything else sold off is another story about which I can only speculate, especially the belly to 30s steepening.  There I’ll put it up to positions, but that’s cheap. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

A Respite

By David Ader 16 Feb 2018

“Coming on the heels of the massive tax cut approved in December, last week’s budget agreement was a breathtaking abdication of fiscal responsibility.”  Thus, begins Lou Crandall’s MMO for Feb 12 and he could have taken those words from my mouth but beat me to the punch.  Since I’ve stolen that, I might as well offer a version of a chart Lou used which is a variation on the theme of many I’ve sent out; the budget as a % of GDP. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News

EPFR, IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates, WealthMan...

Abby Someone. Who? Abby Normal.

By David Ader 09 Feb 2018

“I understand. You found paradise in America, had a good trade, made a good living…” thus begins the opening lines to “The Godfather” when Vito Corleone hears Bonasera’s request for justice.  Think about it; we found paradise with our 401ks, had on good trades, and all that.  Now, like Bonasera, we’d like the Don to make an offer the folks trading ETNs can’t refuse. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.

Topic Industry News