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Topic Asset Allocation
IGM FX and Rates
The global interest rate tide is clearly turning. Of the major developed and emerging markets that IGM tracks, only one developed (Norway) and four emerging (Russia, Brazil, Chile and Korea) are currently projected to cut rates even further. The question now occupying investors, our analysts and the market is the timing and degree of tightening cycles.
IGM FX and Rates
IGM won the Thomson Reuters Awards for Forecasting EUR/USD in 2016, whilst finishing a clear second overall in the FX Majors polls that over 100 of the biggest banks, financial firms contribute to. We think it's worth reminding ourselves the thinking behind these estimates and whether anything much changes into 2017.
EPFR - fund flow & allocations data, IGM FX a...
In the spirit of concerns over foreign flows I’m looking at some perhaps arcane aspects to such activity that both confirm what the market has already talked about and perhaps adds somewhat counter-trend perspectives to foreign flows using Informa’s EPFR data.
Topic Global Investment Flows
EPFR - fund flow & allocations data, Zephyr P...
I am first, foremost and solely a US Interest Rate Strategist (call me I-rate for short) so it is with no shortage of anxiety that I dare delve into the equity market. That said, I do look at the evidence and there are things out there that make me wary of equity valuations which, all things being equal, should serve as a brake of sorts on a sharp rise in bond yields.
IGM FX and Rates
Between the inevitabilities of death and taxes one would like to hope there’s room for a comfortable, perhaps a long, retirement. Alas, the data on that possibility is rather depressing for an awful lot of Americans.
IGM FX and Rates
If you believe the forecasts, this is the year when fiscal policy does the heavy lifting and central bankers have more scope to normalize monetary policy. But inaction or further easing still dominate IGM's country-by-country outlook for 2017.
IGM FX and Rates
The price of oil has pretty much doubled from a year ago, raising questions about whether the increase will be a hit to consumers and add to inflation pressures. This isn't so far-fetched.
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