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IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
As widely expected, FTSE Russell on 24 Sep in the New York afternoon announced that China Government Bonds (CGBs) will be included into the World Government Bond Index (WGBI), effective Oct 2021. Major investment banks estimate that CGBs would receive a weighting of around 5.7% in the WGBI. Assuming AUMs benchmarked to WGBI index is around USD2.5tn, the inclusion would result in USD142bn inflows to the CGB market. Assuming the phasing-in will last for 20 months, same as the time frame set for Bloomberg Barclay's Global Aggregate Index inclusion, CGBs will receive USD7bn inflows per month as a result of WGBIs month-end rebalancing. Once included, China will become the second highest-yielding country in the WGBI (chart 1), which should be very appealing to yield-seekers.
Topic Industry News
EPFR - fund flow & allocations data
EPFR subscribers have traditionally looked at the kinds of funds money is moving into. Active or passive? ETF or mutual fund? Equity or Bond? Energy or Technology? They have also looked at where: Pacific or Europe, Global or GEM. They have usually overlooked factors. Based on their prospectus, EPFR’s data team classifies funds by Style (Growth/Value/Blend), Size (Large/Mid/Small) and Social Responsibility (ESG/not ESG). However, merely by looking at past returns, it is also possible to also classify funds by Momentum, Reversal, Volatility, Beta and Oil Sensitivity. Finally, to add icing to the cake, it is possible to classify funds based on Flow. This blog details what happens, both in terms of additional information and for returns, when you break down money flow in terms of these factors.
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
In this piece we highlight the underperformance of IDR FX within the USD/Asia bloc in Q3. We outline the likely drivers of this underperformance, with pay back from an exceptional Q2 performance, central bank intervention to accumulate USDs and weaker seasonality (particularly in August and September), as the most likely drivers. Lack of offshore capital inflows into the local bond market was also a contributor. Looking ahead into Q4 we argue that IDR can play catch up with the stronger EM Asia FX trend. Seasonal headwinds should dissipate, the central bank should be more comfortable with appreciation and guard against a break above 15000, whilst there is ample scope for offshore investors to re-allocate to Indonesia, given attractive real yields on offer and dovish Fed backdrop. We recognize that global equity market sentiment is weaker now, but USD/IDR spikes should be used as opportunities to average into a short USD position. Read more...
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
Since the start of Q3 the Mexican Peso has been the best EM currency performer vs the USD, rising over 7.0%. However, as an EM sentiment bellwether the MXN may well have had its best run. There is also the risk of a credit rating downgrade to junk which could spur huge outflows. For more read our EM FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
PBOC on 15 September conducted a CNY600bn 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF), more than enough to roll over the same type of facility (sized at CNY200bn) that expired in the same week. Despite the rate being unchanged at 2.95%, the facility size was large enough to stir up speculation over a possible re-emergence of a looser liquidity environment before and after the upcoming Golden Week holiday. However, what actually happened over the rest of the week suggested the surprisingly large MLF operation was mainly aimed at supporting market sentiment before the CGB auction held on 16 September. As soon as the auction was wrapped up, PBOC immediately showed its reluctance to let liquidity go any looser again. On 17 Sep, PBOC only conducted a small-sized 7-day OMO reverse repo, resulting in a re-emergence of net liquidity withdrawal.
Topic Industry News
EPFR - fund flow & allocations data
With COVID-19 caseloads on the rise in Europe and key emerging markets, predictions for effective widescale vaccination slipping into 2Q21, last week’s technology sell off jolting market confidence and Sino-US tensions still running high, investor sentiment took a turn for the defensive during the second week of September. US Bond and Equity Funds absorbed a combined $33 billion, with the latter posting their biggest weekly inflow since 1Q19, while redemptions from Emerging Markets Equity, Europe Bond and Alternative Funds hit six, 12 and 25-week highs respectively.
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
Green bond issuance recovers after early 2020 pause & wider ESG sales pick up pace Green and sustainable/social bond issuance has exploded in very recent years as sovereigns, corporates and financials have all rushed to tap into investors' increasing care for the environment and climate change, and subsequent demands for their money to make a positive impact on society and the world at large. 10-years ago such issuance totalled just USD600mn globally, increasing to almost USD35bn in 2015, and in 2019 it topped USD200bn, according to our database, which tracks just international syndicated bonds. 2020 was expected to be an even stronger year for issuance, particularly with the sustainable bond market still in its infancy and seen having plenty of room to grow. For more read our Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
CEE focus is on the HUF, which has been testing lows since April. This after Q2 GDP saw the steepest contraction amongst its peers of and CPI began to accelerate sharply in July, reducing the real rate on the HUF so that it is now the most negative it has been since January. For more read our EM FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
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