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The Power of Trade Talk
Given events towards the end of last week, focus will fall on any details of the Phase 1 trade deal currently under negotiation between the US and China. The moves were sharp in debt markets which suggests any sort of negative news flow will lead to an equally sharp reversal.
The NZD Week - Bias is Neutral
RBNZ rate cut probability for Nov, i.e. early Wed, is back at 60%. On balance, we think the RBNZ could wait, but suspect the market will stay cautious.
Outlook Into Year-end Now Looks More Positive For EMs
The Emerging Market carry trade is so far heading for its best quarter in two (and possibly in four if upside persists), and in an environment of still ultra-low global bond yields and with some concerns starting to creep in over equity valuations after a surge in stocks, currency related strategies may find particular favour among investors.
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