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The Context 01.20.20

Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss:

The EUR Week – Bias is Neutral-Bullish
A plethora of firm US data last week, all worked to push Eur/Usd below 1.1100, while positive words from Fed's Harker on growth, a solid start to US earnings season and further subsequent gains for US equity futures had also aided Usd strength. Focus now shifts to the ECB policy decision this week, and we suspect the meeting might be enough to spur a more defiant dip-buying approach.

Strengthening CEE Inflationary Pressures Call For Tighter Monetary Policy
Tight labour markets and rising consumption have been a supportive factor for CEE inflation and together with firmer oil price pressures, have pushed CPI to the limits of policymakers' tolerance levels and beyond in recent months.

Stuck in The Middle
China removed from the US FX manipulator list. US Treasuries hardly react. Phase 1 deal signed. Little reaction. Beige Book showing labour shortages (which in theory should push up wages). Nada.

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The Context 01.13.20

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