IGM FX and Rates
20 Feb 2020
China Insight: From Peking Founder to MPA loosening
More retirees with less savings will depress U.S. growth for years
By David Ader, Informa Financial Intelligence Chief Market Strategist
Between the inevitabilities of death and taxes one would like to hope there’s room for a comfortable, perhaps a long, retirement. Alas, the data on that possibility is rather depressing for an awful lot of Americans. For example, the Economic Policy Institute notes that the average savings for all US families is just $95,776. Even that figure exaggerates the broader health of retirement savings because some high savers skew the figures; the median (those right in the middle of the pack) savings of families with retirement savings is $60,000 and for all families is just $5,000. (#1 below).
Such figures are all the more striking when you consider the rapid aging of the population. Back in 1990 those 55 and older represented 25.5% of the US population. Today that figure is 34.7% and by 2030 will rise to 36.7%. The median age of the US was 37.8 in 2015. By 2030 it will climb to 39.3 and to 42 by 2045 per Census Bureau projections.
These off-putting statistics go hand in hand with an economic stress that warrants more attention that it gets. The bottom line is that an aging population tends to consume less than the younger cohorts. What this means is that overall consumption (especially of discretionary non-necessities) is likely to moderate as the population gets older. Given the state of the retirement accounts one hopes that given the opportunity they will save more, too. (That will be an increasingly attractive option if interest rates to inch higher and a vital one if politicians change Social Security or Medicare rules. Presumably changes won’t be to boost payments to retirees, but rather means testing, large copayments, perhaps extending the age of eligibility.)
That older people tend to spend less, especially on discretionary items, makes sense. By the time they’re in their 50s they’ve bought their homes, furnished them, probably have their kids out of the house and on their own, and basically have accumulated all the goods they need. The spending uptick starts with the 23-34 yr cohort as they start their journey to household formation and peaks for the 45-54 yr cohort steadily declining into the ensuing years.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total annual average expenditures come to about $65,000 for the 35-44 age cohort and represents 93% of the overall average expenditures. That rises to near $70,000 for the 45-54 group for 125% of the average, and then drops sharply thereafter. The 75+ cohort is spending just 68% of the overall average expenditure. Retailers take note.
Two related items come to mind when looking at this. First, when you think about the potential for lower taxes in the Trump Administration know that the wealthy tend to save it. It’s the middle and lower classes that spend most of their income though with higher medical costs post Obamacare there might be less to spend on ‘things.’ Things, in this context, tend to help the economy. Second, in September Liberty Street Economics (i.e. the New York Federal Reserve Bank economic blog) wrote an article titled, “U.S. Real Wage Growth: Slowing Down With Age.”
To wit, the post showed there’s a life-cycle pattern to real wage gains such that it’s high early in a career, shows little to no growth by mid-career, and negative (yes, negative) gains as workers near retirement. To this the authors noted, as if it needed to be said, that “a growing fraction of the U.S. adult population is transitioning into the flat to negative real growth phase of their careers.” This is all more fodder for the point I made above that the aging population will spend less with the various bits of research advising that they have less to spend to start with and are earning less as they postpone retirement. Early-bird dinners never looked so appetizing.
This piece first appeared in Barron's
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
18 Feb 2020
Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The JPY Week - Bias is Bearish Has the impact of coronavirus now peaked? We say such talk is premature and an underlying bid Usd/Jpy will continue to slow into 110.00-plus. Euro FIG Snapshot: Virus Protection Fully Operational With the recovery in risk assets extending into a second week, more issuers emerging from blackout and the credit market's virus protection evidently up to date, the pace picked up in the non-covered primary FIG market last week. Equities Ignore, Hope … Euro Indicates Slowing EMU Economy It doesn’t take much to light a fire under equities, but it is going to take much more to push bond yields higher... Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!
Topics Industry News
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
By Tim Cheung 18 Feb 2020
The authorities, MOF, PBOC and CBIRC, hosted a joint conference on Feb 7 to provide an update on supportive policies in light of the coronavirus situation. We believe the conference delivered a loosening bias tone as a nimble response to the virus outbreak. Next move following the huge liquidity injection and provision of first batch of special relending funds to more than a dozen of banks is going to be an LPR cut on 20 Feb. We expect a 10bp cut in both 1-year and 5-year LPRs on 20 Feb (chart 1), similar to the magnitude of the latest OMO rate cut. A more sizable cut may mean the policymakers are opting for more aggressive monetary easing to cushion the economic shocks arising from the coronavirus outbreak.
Topics Industry News