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I don’t know but I heard Powell and I didn’t get much more of a hawkish sense than I had before; Dec Fed Fund futures only rose about 4 bp adding marginally odds of three hikes by the end of the year, and gave all that up by week’s end. In context, the odds of 2% or more in December are near 68.5%% from just shy of 64% a week earlier. Frankly, I think that pretty much prices three in for now and I’m not just trying to talk a bullish position. I just don’t see that it was a more determined hawkish lean than the market already had. I mean, 4 bp… really? Read more from David Ader's latest musings.
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