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I am not sure how complicated analysis over the bond market’s price action in the last couple of weeks needs to be; less, in this case, is more. The main theme surely is the flattening curve and all that implies. Behind that has to be ongoing Fedspeak that has only enhanced prospects of three more hikes this year. Odds for a rate higher than 2.25%, implying three hikes, are still under 50% but have risen from 32%-ish on April 10 to near 44% now. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.
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