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I must admit I was surprised by the market’s reaction to the Fed Minutes and I was not alone (oh god, please don’t tell me he’s going to talk about Fed Fund futures!).
Indeed, Fed Fund futures in the moments after the release and into the aftermath as stocks reversed and bonds sold off did essentially nothing. Of all things out there, surely Fed Fund futures would respond if the Minutes were somehow an alert to a more hawkish trajectory. That they didn’t is, I think, is the crux of the matter; why everything else sold off is another story about which I can only speculate, especially the belly to 30s steepening. There I’ll put it up to positions, but that’s cheap. Read more from David Ader's latest musings.
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