skip to main content
Close Icon We use cookies to improve your website experience.  To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy.  By continuing to use the website, you consent to our use of cookies.
Global Search Configuration

IGM_Monthly_Interest_Rate_Outlook_-_August_2018.pdf

Please find attached the August 2018 edition of the IGM Monthly Interest Rate Outlook.

Highlights:

Synchronised global economic growth is, well, less off piste as far as the markets are concerned. Still, trade issues (we are not yet at 'War' status) run a significant risk of derailing what is now being considered as more of a blip than a nefarious downturn ... although if the Juncker-Trump 'deal' heralds a significant wind-down in tensions, and improved economic growth is the result � more/faster rate hikes might be on the cards. The US continues as the leading light on economic growth, ironic given Washington is the epicentre of the trade angst.

  • Elsewhere, reports the BoJ are to consider changing its Yield Curve Control policy are causing a stir in the rates markets (and some rare steepening), but Market Reporter Tian Yong Woon notes '�the Japan economy presently gives the CB only a few justifications for any near-term hawkish tweaks' although 'we may still see eventual "forced" policy changes amid increasingly cornered/distorted Japan ETF and JGB markets �' [Pages 2, 5]
  • The BoE is odds on to hike at its August 'Super Meeting', despite the softish recent data, Senior Editor/Analyst Marcus Dewsnap notes that 'Real rates do however remain extremely expansive, thus provide some cover for an increase.' And, 'look out for clues via inflation forecasts. The projections are probably more important for policy than current CPI.' [Pages 2, 5]
  • Elsewhere, events in Turkey attract attentions after an against consensus on hold decision, Emerging Markets Senior Analyst Natalie Rivett writes that this 'has confirmed fears of a weakening resolve to tighten monetary policy following President Erdogan's election victory last month that has already led to an erosion of central bank independence'. [Pages 3, 9].



Recommended Articles

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    IGM Launches Daily Quant-Based Trading Ideas with IGM G10 FX Playbook

    21 Jan 2021

    Boston, MA – (January 21, 2021) – IGM, a subsidiary of Informa plc (LSE: INF), a leading provider of solutions for financial services professionals, has launched the IGM G10 FX Playbook, offering financial institutions actionable analysis and talking points for client and in-house currency market trading strategy.

    Topics Industry News

  • IGM FX and Rates

    2020: That was the year that was - U.S. High grade primary markets

    22 Dec 2020

    2020 will be known for the Great Debt Binge when corporate America and a host of foreign companies raised an unprecedented amount of capital via the USD public debt market amidst the worst pandemic crisis in over a century...

    Topics Industry News

  • IGM FX and Rates

    2020 Year in Review

    By Jonathan Cavenagh 22 Dec 2020

    The positive risk bias at the start of 2020 for EM Asia assets didn’t last long. The synchronised global economic upswing quickly unravelled as the COVID pandemic swept through EM Asia economies. The epicentre of the pandemic was in China to begin with and as China went into lockdown Q1 was a write off for economic growth in the region. From a peak in mid-January to late March, the ADXY currency index lost 5%. There were significant divergences within the region though, with the IDR losing close to 15% against the USD, the baht 8.6% and INR 5.5%. IDR and INR are typically current account deficit currencies and sensitive to broader risk appetite, whilst the collapse in tourism inflows weighed heavily on the baht. In contrast, the PHP was basically flat against the USD in Q1, while the TWD only lost 0.67%. The Philippines has fairly limited offshore investor positioning, which served it well, while Taiwan managed the pandemic very well and this was reflected in relative currency outperformance…

    Topics Industry News

;

Any questions? Speak to a specialist

Would you like to request sample data or analysis from Informa Financial Intelligence? 

See how our tailored solutions can help you gain a competitive advantage: