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Please click on the attached PDF for our Mexican 2018 Election Special.

IGM_Mexican_2018_election_special_.pdf

  • On July 1st Mexican voters will head to the polls and are expected to elect leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) as President - a veteran politician who has been swept ahead of his opponents by a wave of populism.
  • Investors fear that AMLO could end market friendly policies and unravel key reforms that were designed to make Mexico's economy more modern and productive.
  • Our view is that this overdramatized narrative surrounding AMLO presents an attractive opportunity to enter a bullish MXN contrarian trade.
  • We would look to fade any upside in USD/MXN above 21.000, targeting a return towards the 2018 low at 17.940 over the coming months, with a stop at 22.040.

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