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On July 1st Mexican voters will head to the polls and are expected to elect leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) as President - a veteran politician who has been swept ahead of his opponents by a wave of populism.
Investors fear that AMLO could end market friendly policies and unravel key reforms that were designed to make Mexico's economy more modern and productive.
Our view is that this overdramatized narrative surrounding AMLO presents an attractive opportunity to enter a bullish MXN contrarian trade.
We would look to fade any upside in USD/MXN above 21.000, targeting a return towards the 2018 low at 17.940 over the coming months, with a stop at 22.040.
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