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Turkey goes to the polls on June 24th for the joint Parliamentary and Presidential elections as Erdogan looks to cement his grip on power and finalise the move from a parliamentary
democracy to an executive presidential system for the first time in its modern
Erdogan looks set to win the Presidential election, albeit via a second round run off, but a galvanised opposition have banded together and there is is now a real risk that Erdogan's AK Party will fail to win a majority in parliament.
Like in 2015, this outcome is likely to lead to the President calling for re-elections and a prolonged period of uncertainty, especially given the cloud of doubt over the legitimacy of these elections, which will be held under a state of emergency.
Even if Erdogan and the AK Party emerge victorious, there is still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding future fiscal/monetary policy direction, and if the over-heating economy will be slowed, and thus whatever the outcome we recommend a long USD/TRY position.
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