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Please click on the attached PDF for our Turkish 2018 Election Special.

IGM_Turkish_2018_Election_Special.pdf

  • Turkey goes to the polls on June 24th for the joint Parliamentary and Presidential elections as Erdogan looks to cement his grip on power and finalise the move from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidential system for the first time in its modern history.
  • Erdogan looks set to win the Presidential election, albeit via a second round run off, but a galvanised opposition have banded together and there is is now a real risk that Erdogan's AK Party will fail to win a majority in parliament.
  • Like in 2015, this outcome is likely to lead to the President calling for re-elections and a prolonged period of uncertainty, especially given the cloud of doubt over the legitimacy of these elections, which will be held under a state of emergency.
  • Even if Erdogan and the AK Party emerge victorious, there is still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding future fiscal/monetary policy direction, and if the over-heating economy will be slowed, and thus whatever the outcome we recommend a long USD/TRY position.

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