IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
19 Oct 2020
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** The only EUR IG supply on Friday came courtesy US chemical and advanced materials company Arkema which increased its outstanding 1.5% Apr 2024 for EUR200m at m/s +65 via CA CIB and Citi.
** This brought the total volume of EUR issuance up to EUR21.62bn for the week, surpassing the EUR16.75bn which printed the previous week. For the full supply breakdown, see the IGM WEEKLY VOLUME
** Corporate borrowers led the way with a total of 17 tranches pricing for a combined EUR11.32bn including a number of dual-tranche and multi-tranche transactions, which were well received by investors as reflected by our usual weekly data barometers. For some takeaways from this week's supply see IGM's CORP SNAPSHOT
** Covered supply rose significantly this week to EUR5.2bn, up 160% from the week before, spearheaded by Nationwide Building Society's record breaking EUR1bn 15yr UK covered issue. For our weekly covered wrap which includes charts and stats see IGM COVERED SNAPSHOT
** In contrast, FIG issuance fell in the last week to EUR2.05bn (from EUR2.5bn) with BNP Paribas attracting the most demand (EUR2bn) for its EUR750m 7yr senior non-preferred trade. Looking ahead to next week and Nordea is preparing to go live with a debut EUR500m no grow 5yr Green issue as early as Monday. For more see IGM's FIG SNAPSHOT
** EPFR Global data for Euro-denominated IG bond funds shows that investors put money for a third straight week in the w/e 21st June, although the pace of inflows slowed to an equivalent $928.18m from $1,545.19m the week before. For more see the IGM EPFR FUND FLOWS
IGM Credit Excel spreadsheets
** IGM European Weekly Credit Excel Spreadsheet is your comprehensive round-up of primary European new issue activity in Excel format, which allows users to conveniently download, save and edit the data as required. As well as new issue terms and conditions the spreadsheet incorporates additional data sets including distribution stats, book sizes, NICs and secondary market performance
** IGM/EPFR: Cheat Sheet provides proprietary intelligence on Euro primary market trends using various key data points in an easily digestible Excel spreadsheet. This includes Euro new issue volumes, average new issue concessions and book cover ratios across asset classes, as well as EPFR fund flow data and other key credit proxies
Friday's broader market developments
** No major / new drivers
** Stocks and synthetic credit decoupled as equities slipped while iTraxx indices held in - Main touches fresh series tight for 2nd straight day
** Oil traded sideways having stabilised Thursday, but Brent still in bear market territory and was heading for a fifth weekly loss
** EZ PMI data disappointed overall in Jun, services missed while manufacturing beat
** Govvies - bunds lacked a clear direction while bull flattening trend takes a breather
Market shapshot (15.35 BST)
GER 2yr +0.9bp at -0.636% / 10yr +0.4bp at 0.253%
Brent +0.57% at USD45.48
iTraxx Main -0.6 at 53.7 / Crossover -0.3 at 234.9
What to watch Monday
** Data: Following 4 straight monthly rises, German Ifo Business Climate likely slipped in June but should stay close to the cycle high seen in May. UK BBA Mortgage approvals are seen falling for a 4th month in May. US Prelim Durable Goods data should show that the value of new orders fell for a 2nd month in May.
** Events: The 3-day ECB Forum gets underway. Fed's Williams speaks before the European open (05.20)
** Supply: The US sells USD26bn 2yr notes
** Holidays: Eid
** Viewpoint: Week Ahead - Plenty of CB speak, Fed's favoured PCE inflation gauge set to slow further. Eurozone inflation to slow to 1.3% y/y at the headline, and speed-up to 1% at the core
IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates
19 Oct 2020
Recall, we delivered the below predictions respectively in two issues of this publication last month: - 11 September -- "Despite the downward pullback of the yield in recent days, we still stick with our cautiously bearish view on the bonds. We won't be surprised if the 10-year CGB yield finally reaches 3.25% or higher in Q4 if the prevailing mini-deleveraging cycle continues". - 18 September -- "In our view, continued reluctance of PBOC to act generously will reinforce the market perception that monetary easing cycle is already over and borrowing costs will be gradually creeping upward. In case of that, there is a good chance we will see a strong selloff in bonds in October". Basically, both predictions have already materialized as 10-year CGB yield already reached as high as 3.23%, fresh high of the year, in the middle of this month (October). That's 11bp higher than September 18's closing level...
Topics Industry News