It's FOMC day and the market is already on the sidelines.
Instead, everyone is watching the updated dot plots and whether the median dot for 2017 is marked down.
Even if the median 2017 dot is left at 3, the question one needs to ask is whether the market will react with outright scepticism?
We refer back to our 07 Jun viewpoint and 05 Jun viewpoint where we talked about how we expect a more subdued US econ rebound given the lack of traction in wage growth/consumer spending/biz investments.
Note that we have long been sceptical of the Trump effect, and the enduring failure to push through on fiscal/tax policies is a fundamental negative.
Implicitly, we suspect the market will sell the USD and buy USTs post-FOMC.
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