02 Feb 2018
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Tuesday's primary highlights
** Euro supply picked up on Tuesday as the SSA and FIG sectors chipped in to what was another corporate heavy primary market session which produced EUR7.625bn of issuance, up from EUR5.8bn the day before. For the composition of Tuesday's EUR supply see IGM DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS
** Corporates have dominated Euro supply so far this week as another trio of issuers added a further EUR5.3bn to the EUR5.5bn of issuance which priced on Monday, spearheaded by a rare EUR4bn multi-tranche exercise from Pfizer Inc. For more details see IGM's CORP SNAPSHOT
** National Australia Bank (NAB) kick-started Euro FIG supply with a EUR500m no-grow Green bond which followed a period of marketing and turned out to be an economic exercise for the issuer, helped by a sustained tightening in comparable outstanding Australian paper of late. In Sterling, Barclays PLC reopened the AT1 sector with a GBP1.25bn PNC6 which landed at 7.25% (from 7.375/7.5% IPTs) on GBP6bn+ of demand. For more background see IGM's FIG SNAPSHOT
** The other primary highlight in Euros was an inaugural EUR1.825bn 10yr sustainability bond from NRW which commanded over EUR2.55bn of demand, while the recent flow of short-dated USD paper continued courtesy of sector heavyweights EBRD and KfW. For RV analysis on these deals see IGM SSA PREVIEW
Wednesday's potential primary supply
** Republic of Slovenia (Baa3/A/A-) has mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and SG CIB for increases to its outstanding 1.25% Mar 2027 and 1.75% Nov 2040 lines which were bid ca. m/s +79 and +109 when the mandate was announced on Monday.
** Slovak Republic (A2/A+/A+) could pull the trigger on a long-dated RegS Euro benchmark following roadshows which started on 27th Feb via Deutsche Bank, HSBC, SG CIB and Tatra Banka (Raiffeisen Bank International Group).
** DG Hyp (exp AAA by S&P) is lining up a EUR500m no grow 9yr HyPfa through BayernLB, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole CIB, DZ BANK and UBS, with fair value pegged ca. m/s -14bp based on the issuer's own 0.375% Mar 2026 line which was around that level mid on Tuesday.
** Fastighets AB Balder (Baa3/BBB) could emerge with a EUR 2-part intermediate benchmark following roadshows which started on 27th Feb via Danske, Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Nordea.
Broader market developments on Tuesday
** EU risk assets trade mixed as markets fall fully into the shadow of Wednesday morning's (02.00GMT) speech from US President Trump
** Govvies - 10-30s German curve bear steepens, BTPs lead peripheral outperformance in 10yr space, long end periphery also gets a lift. Core EGBs recover, 10-30s Gilt curve bull flattens
** EUR/USD on course for 5th straight day of very slim gains
** iTraxx indices sea-sawed but were ultimately on course to end fractionally tighter
Market snapshot (15.25)
SXXP +0.15% / SX7P +0.22%
EUR/USD +0.18% at 1.0623
GER 2yr +2.3bps at -0.924% / 10yr -0.1bp at 0.195%
FRA 10yr -0.3bps at 0.870%
Brent -0.88% at USD55.44, on course for third consecutive day of decline
iTraxx Main -0.8 at 73.5 / Crossover -2.0 at 293.8
What to watch Wednesday
European participants will start the day (and new month) catching up with any market moves or implications arising from President Trump's address to Congress (due at 02.00).
** Data: A heavy European data slate consists of UK Nationwide House Prices and UK Jan Mortgage Approvals, Markit Mfg PMIs and German State / National preliminary inflation numbers for Feb starting with Saxony which kicks off at 08:00 GMT. Attention then shifts to US Personal Income and Spending, the Fed's preferred PCE Core Deflator, Markit and ISM Mfg surveys as well as Construction Spending.
** Events: There are a duo of Fed speakers on the day in the shape of Kaplan (18.00) and Brainard (23.00). Also watching Fed's Beige Book (19.00) and ECB's Weidmann (13.30)
** Supply: Germany to sell EUR3bn 2027 bonds
** Earnings: 16 Stoxx600 and 6 S&P500 companies report
IGM FX and Rates
By Marcus Dewsnap 09 Apr 2018
Welcome to our newsletter, The Context, from IFI Research, containing thought leadership articles spanning a host of asset classes.
IGM FX and Rates
By Marcus Dewsnap 12 Mar 2018