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Thursday's primary highlights

** IG primary supply slowed significantly on Thursday where only EUR2.6bn priced in the single currency, compared to EUR8.75bn on Wednesday. Despite the slowdown, this week's supply total of EUR27.525bn is still much bigger than the EUR16.175bn seen last week. For the list of Thursday's deals see the IGM EUR DAILY NICS & BOOKS

** Natixis Pfandbriefbank AG kept Euro supply ticking over with a new EUR250m (no grow) Mar 2022 Mortgage Pfandbrief issue. Pricing was tweaked into m/s -6 from a m/s -5 area guidance starting point with final books seen at circa EUR300m. See IGM's COVERED SNAPSHOT for background and relative value analysis of the trade

** The Federal State of Thuringia printed a EUR500m Mar 2027 LSA in line with area guidance at m/s -17 whilst Bpifrance Financement tapped its 0.1% Feb 2021 line by EUR500m at OATs +17. In Dollars, NWB Bank issued a new USD1bn 5yr which landed at m/s +38 from m/s +39 area IPTs on the back of demand over USD1.2bn. This equated to a NIC of 2-2.5bps at reoffer

** In FIG the only supply of any sort came courtesy of Deutsche Bank which tapped the Sterling market for GBP750m via a Feb 2020 line at UKT +180. Elsewhere, French names slightly outperformed in the secondary market which reflects the improvement in sentiment towards French risk seen since Wednesday afternoon. For our full tracker of recent FIG EUR issues see the IGM FIG SNAPSHOT

** Corporates stayed sidelined for the second day in a row whilst secondary spreads were seen wider when compared to levels seen Wednesday. The new issuance pipeline continues to grow however. See IGM's CORP SNAPSHOT for more

Friday's possible primary supply

** After conducting an investor roadshow earlier this week, US issuer Avery Dennison Corporation is eyeing an inaugural EUR 8yr senior benchmark as early as Friday via BAML, HSBC and JP Morgan

** Province of Quebec is marketing a CAD500m 5yr Global Green at CAN (0.50% 03/22) +56 area via HSBC, RBC Capital Markets and TD Securities


Thursday's broader market developments

** EU risk assets mildly tilted to the upside, while DAX underperforms. Price action follows some positive earnings reports earlier in the day. Light US data agenda sees both Chicago Fed National Activity and FHFA House Price Index miss expectations, while in Europe German Q4 GDP matched expectations

** Govvies � FTQ trade, OATS continue to outperform peers, 10-30s curve flattens, 10yr spread vs Bunds narrows circa 9bps to 71bp but still much wider YTD (see graph below). Price action follows French centrist presidential candidate Bayrou's decision late on Wed's to pull out of the Presidential race and ally with leading candidate Macron, reducing far-right Le Pen's chance of a win in the final round vote. Peripherals underperform, 15yr PGBs get hammered, yield surges 11.1bps

** Brent currently on course to end the week on the front foot, having recouped Wednesday's 1.45% loss and more, while Gold receives safe-haven bid, hitting a fresh 2017 high (intra-day peak 1249.44)

** iTraxx indices tighten then move sideways, Crossover carves out a new low for the week



Market snapshot (15.35 GMT)

SXXP +0.01% / SX7P -0.89%, on course for 3-day losing streak

GER 2yr -2.1bps at -0.+23% / 10yr -3.0bps at 0.245%

OAT 2yr -2.2bps at -0.548% / 10yr -3.5bps at 0.971% / 30yr -4.4bps at 1.958%

Brent +2.08% at USD57.00 / Spot gold +1.09% at 1247.36

iTraxx Main -0.6 at 73.8 / Crossover -2.1 at 293.6


What to watch Friday

** Data: Focus on Italian Industrial Orders, albeit for Dec, and consumer confidence indicators from France and Italy before attention shifts to US housing data and final UoM Sentiment

** Events: None scheduled

** Supply: Watch out for any pressure on BTPs in the run up to Monday's sale of EUR5.5-7bn 2022, 2026 and 2027 BTPs, and EUR2.5-3bn 2022 and 2024 CCTeus

** Earnings pace slows as week draws to an end with 18 Stoxx600 and 4 S&P500 companies due to report. Former includes Bank of Ireland, Standard Life and RBS

SSA Priced / SSA Pipeline

CORP Priced / CORP Pipeline

FIG + Covered Priced / FIG + Covered Pipeline


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