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** It was a quiet session for the European primary market on Monday with the risk-off tone in broader markets keeping issuers largely sidelined at the start of the week. Just EUR625m printed via 2 tranches in the single currency, whilst Unilever made a rare visit to the Sterling market (more below). For details on the two Euro deals see IGM's DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS

** The only benchmark EUR issue came courtesy of the Federal State of Lower Saxony which refreshed its LSA curve with a new EUR500m Feb 2024 line which priced in line with guidance at m/s -17, on the back of demand around EUR600m

** Unilever took centre stage in the corporate market, where the British-Dutch consumer goods company tapped Sterling for the first time since March 2014 via a GBP350m Feb 2022 line at UKT 4% Mar 2022 +62, which was tightened from UKT +65/70 IPTs on the back of books topping GBP600m. For more, including the official comps list, see IGM's CORP SNAPSHOT

** FIG supply drew a complete blank on Monday, whilst the most recent deals to price were seen mostly wider in the secondary market when compared to Friday's levels. For our tracker of recent FIG issues see IGM FIG SNAPSHOT

** ECB released its latest CSPP update, with the central bank revealing it holds EUR58.815bn of corporate securities as of 27th January. The latest data implies a monthly purchasing rate of EUR7.47bn, which is up slightly from EUR7.45bn the previous week. For more see IGM's ECB CSPP Review

Tuesday's potential primary supply

** Fondo de Amortizacion del Deficit Electrico (FADE), which is guaranteed by the Kingdom of Spain, is taking IoIs for a new Mar 2022 EUR benchmark at interpolated SPGBs (5.85% 01/22 & 5.4% 01/23) + 20 bps area IPTs

** HSH Finanzfonds AoeR could go live with a 6yr EUR fixed-rate benchmark, after hiring Barclays, Commerzbank, HSBC and UniCredit on Monday. The issuer benefits from a joint statutory support by the Federal States of Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein and an unconditional guarantee from both states

** After holding an investor call on Monday via BNP Paribas, Cr�dit Agricole CIB, Credit Suisse and HSBC, Unrated Dutch global merchant company Louis Dreyfus Company could launch a EUR300m 5yr line. This follows an investor roadshow back in November, before the issuer decided to postpone its planned visit to the market due to adverse market conditions following Trump's shock election win

IGM European Weekly Credit Excel Spreadsheet

** The IGM European Weekly Credit Overview is your comprehensive round-up of primary European new issue activity in Excel format, which allows users to conveniently download, save and edit the data as required. As well as new issue terms and conditions the spreadsheet incorporates additional new issue data sets including distribution stats, book sizes, NICs and secondary market performance

IGM/EPFR Weekly Cheat Sheet in Excel

** IGM/EPFR Weekly Cheat Sheet provides proprietary intelligence on Euro primary market trends using various key data points in an easily digestible Excel spreadsheet. This includes Euro new issue volumes, average new issue concessions and book cover ratios across asset classes, as well as EPFR fund flow data and other key credit proxies

Broader market developments:

** EU risk assets extended Fri's losses, as markets reacted negatively to US President Trump's executive order announced late on Friday to limit immigration

** Data-wise, German aggregate EU Harmonised CPI YoY missed at 1.9% (exp 2.0%, prev 1.7%), although still hit its highest levels since mid-2013 following broadly firmer State CPI prints that briefly reignited ECB taper fears. US data was mixed: personal income missed, personal spending beat, while Core PCE matched expectations

** Govvies - initial safe haven bid gets wiped out, yields soar higher, before Bunds and Gilts make a u-turn. 10yr OAT yield hits highest level since Sep 2015 on political woes. BTPs the weakest link having touched a fresh contract low (130.24) amid supply, uncertainty related to underlying structural reforms and ongoing banking woes. See IGM's FI CLOSE

** See French election risk premium creeping in? for our strategy team's thoughts on French political risk following appointment of Hamon as socialist candidate for Presidential elections (23-Apr, 7-May)

** iTraxx Main and Crossover touch widest levels since 30th and 15th December respectively, following the broader risk-off tone in equities

Market snapshot (15.47)

SXXP -0.99% / SX7P -1.61% / FTSEMIB -2.54%

GER 2yr -1.1bps at -0.693% / 10yr -1.7bps at 0.440%

Brent -0.41% at USD55.29, heading for second day of losses

iTraxx Main +2.1 at 72.5 / Crossover +8.4 at 300.6

What to watch Tuesday

** Data: Focus is on preliminary inflation and GDP figures from the Eurozone, after an uptick in German CPI on Monday reignited ECB taper fears. Also watching German Retail Sales, UK GfK Consumer confidence and Mortgage Approvals before attention shifts to second-tier US data

** Events: Watching a trio of ECB central bank speakers in the form of Draghi (08.00), Mersch (12.15) and Coeure (14.30) for any fresh clues on policy. The BoJ conclude a 2-day meeting with no policy change expected. See IGM's BoJ PREVIEW

** Supply: Look out for any pressure on gilts going into the GBP2.25bn 2026 Gilt sale

** Earnings: 7 Stoxx600 and 32 S&P500 companies report

** It's also month-end while China + HK markets remain closed for Lunar NY holiday, reducing regional liquidity

SSA Priced / SSA Pipeline

CORP Priced / CORP Pipeline

FIG + Covered Priced / FIG + Covered Pipeline

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