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  • EU risk assets start on the defensive before eking out mild gains after the UK High Court ruled that a Parliamentary vote is required to invoke Article 50 (Brexit); FTSE100 bucks the trend though as GBP/USD strengthens

  • GBP/USD soars over 1 cent to touch intra-day high of 1.2456 post UK court ruling; H1 2017 still favourite for triggering Article 50 with probability at around 59%, according to Betfair

  • Stoxx600 0.64% ahead as at 11.24 as gains in real estate, financials and energy counteract losses in the materials and consumer staples sub-sectors. That follows some positive financial company earnings from Soc Gen, ING, insurer Swiss Re and Schroders

  • US Presidential election result still remains wide open as another Virginia swing state poll put Trump ahead of Clinton (and for the 1st time); Probability of Clinton win recedes to 69% from mid-70s last week (Betfair)

  • Brent stabilises with prices up 1% at USD47.33 as at 11.25, following a 4-day losing streak

  • Govvies take a pause for breath with 10yr yields broadly up circa 1.5-2.5bps following Wed's FTQ trade; Gilts an exception though down -0.5bps albeit after a brief blip following the surprise UK Services PMI beat (see below); 10yr SPGBs close to flat post successful bond auction (see details of that and French & Irish sales below)

  • Asian stocks closed mostly lower although mainland equities were a bit mixed - Hang Seng closed 0.56% lower, but Shanghai Comp +0.84%, while Nikkei was out for Culture Day Holiday

  • Primary - Corps dominate again (see table below)

  • Performance check on Wednesday's Euro deals (bp change from reoffer) - CORPS: FCGNZ 0.75% 11/24 +1, GFSLN 1.5% 01/23 -9.5, ABESM 1% 02/27 +1, DOV 1.25% 11/26 -1, STLNO 1.625% 11/36 +1, STLNO 0.75% 11/26 +0.5

  • iTraxx indices currently on course to break 5 and 7 day widening streak with Main -2.1 at 73.8 and Crossover -8.4 at 331.3 respectively as at 11.26

  • Afternoon - Watching BoE rate verdict (no change expected) and presser; US ISM Non-Mfg Composite & earnings; S&P500 called 0.2% higher. Facebook trading down 5% pre-market following Q3 results released AMC on Wed

New deals in the pipeline / updates




Exp 500m 10yr at m/s +35a +/-2 WPIR; cmbd bks ~2.5bn




bmk 4yr at m/s +18a +/-3 WPIR; cmbd bks ~2.5bn


RCI Banque


bmk 5yr at m/s +60-65 guidance; books 1.7bn+


Cap Gemini


500m n/g 5yr tbp m/s +52; books 3.3bn+


Virgin Money


Exp 220m PNC5 AT1 set at 8.75%; bks 550m+; MS/DB/GSI




Final terms: 500m 02/22 snr tbp @ m/s +45; bks ~900m

Key economic data / events so far

  • SP Oct Unemployment MoM Net Change beat at 44.7k (exp 77.0k, prev 22.8k)

  • IT Sep Unemployment Rate missed at 11.7% (exp 11.4%, prev 11.5%r)

  • UK Oct Markit/CIPs Services PMI unexpectedly beat at 54.5 (exp 52.5, prev 52.6) - highest since Jan 2016

  • EC Sep Unemployment Rate matched forecast at steady 10%

Government auctions

  • SP sold maximum intended EUR3bn 2021, 2026, 2030 bonds and EUR739m 2024 Linkers (target range: EUR0.5-1bn for latter) all at stronger bid-to-covers amid a broad rise in yields

  • FR sold EUR7.9bn 2026 & 2036 OATs at higher yields; b/cs mixed (target range: EUR7-8bn)

  • IR sold EUR750m 2030 bonds at 0.975%; b/c 2.60

On the agenda later

  • 27 S&P500 companies report

  • BoE Policy Rate Verdict � no change expected (12.00)

  • BoE Inflation report (12.00)

  • BoE's Carney - policy presser (12.30)

  • US weekly jobless claims seen softer at 256k from 258k (12.30)

  • US Oct Final Markit Services PMI seen matching flash estimate at 54.8 from 52.3 (13.45)

  • US Oct ISM Non-Mfg Composite seen weaker at 56.0 from 57.1 (14.00)

  • US Sep Factory Orders seen steady at 0.2% (14.00)

  • US Sep Final Durable Goods Orders seen matching flash estimate at -0.1% from +0.3% (14.00)

  • ECB's Weidmann (15.00)

  • BoE's Carney (16.30)

  • BoE's Cunliffe (20.55)

  • ECB's Coeure (21.00)

All times GMT

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