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  • EU risk aversion rises following negative handover from US and Asia overnight on renewed US election jitters in wake of latest polls; a weaker USD and oil price decline also undermine sentiment ahead of the Fed policy verdict; EZ Mfg PMI beats but has little impact on markets

  • ABC News/Washington Post poll gave Trump a narrow 1% lead, a stark contrast to the 12% lead the same poll showed for Clinton back on October 23rd. Three of four polls today have showed Trump tied/ahead of Clinton

  • Fed Dec rate hike odds recede to 68% from the low 70s on Tuesday afternoon before the ABC/Washington Post poll hit the wires

  • Stoxx600 declines 0.55% as at 11.18, dragged lower by financials (-1.60%), and is currently on course for its 8th consecutive day of losses; DAX underperforms following a fall in revenues from Lufthansa

  • Brent continues to retreat dropping below USD48 to touch a one-month (and also intra-day) low of USD47.30, after Tuesday's API data showed a 9.3m brl build in inventories; Gold gets safe-haven boost, up 0.53% and on course to post its 5th consecutive session gain

  • Govvies - bulls are back in the driving seat with FTQ inspired by the broad risk-off tone; yields get dragged as much as circa 10bps lower with Dec Gilts leading the way having touched a fresh contract high of 126.04; German and UK auctions run smoothly (details below)

  • Asian stocks got hammered - Nikkei closed 1.76% lower, Hang Seng -1.45% and Shanghai Comp -0.63% as US election woes dominated sentiment overnight

  • Primary - CORP SNAPSHOT: Issuers pile through the window

  • iTraxx indices start wider in line with broader risk-off sentiment before ending AM a tad tighter with Main -0.2 at 74.9 and and Crossover -1.4 at 335.5 as at 11.25

  • Afternoon - Watching Fed policy verdict and ADP Employment, latter a pre-NFP proxy; S&P500 called 0.2% lower

New deals in the pipeline / updates

02-Nov

LYB

EUR

Inv call 2-Nov via JPM/HSBC. Poss 12yr bmk to follow

02-Nov

Nordea MB

EUR

Covered roadshow 7-Nov via DB/HSBC/Natixis/Nordea

02-Nov

Akelius

EUR

Inv rdshw 7th Nov & 5-7yr bmk via BLB/BNP/Danske/Swed

02-Nov

Statoil

EUR

2part: 10yr bmk at m/s +50a IPTs; Barc/BNP/DB/Miz

02-Nov

Statoil

EUR

2part: 20yr bmk at m/s +75a IPTs; Barc/BNP/DB/Miz

02-Nov

KfW

EUR

650m tap of 1.125% Dec 2019 set @ UKT +30; bks 670m+

02-Nov

Abertis

EUR

500m no grow 10yr at m/s +75/80 IPTs; BBB/BBB+

02-Nov

Aroundtown

EUR

Inv call 2-Nov and tap of 2024 issue via MS

02-Nov

Fonterra

EUR

350-500m 8yr at m/s +65 area IPTs; C/DB/HSBC/SG

02-Nov

Dover corp

EUR

600m 10yr at m/s +85/90 guidance via JPM/BAML/WF

02-Nov

G4S

EUR

500m Jan 2023, tbp at m/s +140, books over 3.6bn


Already priced

02-Nov

Berlin +

EUR

250m

0.625

08/36

m/s flat

Aa1/nr

Jt-leads

02-Nov

Lower Saxony+

EUR

250m

0

08/24

m/s -19

nr/nr

Deka/HSBC/NordLB

Key economic data / events so far

  • UK Oct Nationwide House Prices NSA YoY missed at 4.6% (exp 4.9%, prev 5.3%)

  • SP Oct Markit Mfg PMI beat at 53.3 (exp 52.6, prev 52.3)

  • IT Oct Markit Mfg PMI missed at 50.9 (exp 51.4, prev 51.0)

  • FR Oct Final Markit Mfg PMI upgraded to 51.8 (flash est 51.3, prev 49.7)

  • GE Oct Final Markit Mfg PMI marginally downgraded to 55.0 (flash est 55.1, prev 54.3)

  • GE Oct Unemployment Change better than-expected at -13k (exp -1k, prev +1k), Rate beat at 6.0% (exp & prev 6.1%) - latter at fresh record low

  • EC Oct Final Markit Mfg PMI upgraded to 53.5 (flash est 53.3, prev 52.6)

  • UK Oct Markit/CIPs Construction PMI beat at 52.6 (exp 51.8, prev 52.3)

Government auctions

  • GE sold EUR2.506bn (retained EUR494m) 2026 bonds at 0.12%, b/c 1.5 (prev -0.03% & 1.4 resp)

  • UK sold GBP400m 0.625% 2040 Linkers at -1.741%, b/c 2.24

On the agenda later

  • 38 S&P500 companies report

  • US Oct ADP Employment Change seen firmer at 165k from 154k (12.15)

  • US Fed rate verdict � policy seen steady (18.00)

All times GMT

kajal.mawdia@informagm.com, matthew.barrett@informagm.com

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