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  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Is a SARS Repeat on The Way?

    By Riki Zhang | EM Analyst 23 Jan 2020

    China Insight

    According to the report of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, as of Beijing morning 22 Jan 2020, there are more than 400 confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus nationwide. Meanwhile, Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, Japan and the United States also reported confirmed cases of the virus. There are growing fears that an outbreak of the virus will happen across Asia very soon, just like SARS in 2003. Looking at the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, we find it necessary to draw on some experiences from SARS in 2003 in terms of the possible impact on the China/HK markets in coming months. After all, the genetic sequence of the Wuhan coronavirus is 80% similar to the SARS virus found in bats, civets and humans (as per K.Y. Yuen, the Chair of Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong's Department of Microbiology) and the two syndromes also look very close in terms of the timing of outbreak. The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is getting worse with more suspected and confirmed cases reported. More importantly, with the mass movement of population for Lunar New Year (LNY) getting underway we inevitably will see a sharp acceleration of transmission over the next 2-3 weeks. As such, we won't be surprised if the number of confirmed cases is already in 4-digit territory by the end of LNY holiday in mainland China. With reference to the pace of growth in the confirmed cases, many experts believe the Wuhan coronavirus now is still in the initial stage of the outbreak. Assuming it develops in a similar manner as SARS did in 2003 (chart 1), we probably will not see the peak of the number of new cases until March or April.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Property Bonds See Decreasing Net Supply From Now On

    By Riki Zhang 21 Jan 2020

    Both Chinese property stocks and bonds were doing well in Q4 last year due to an increase in home mortgage loans in percentage terms in the banking sector's aggregate loan portfolio (chart 1). This is largely attributed to a recovery of home demand.      

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 01.20.20

    20 Jan 2020

    The Context 01.13.20

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The EUR Week – Bias is Neutral-Bullish A plethora of firm US data last week, all worked to push Eur/Usd below 1.1100, while positive words from Fed's Harker on growth, a solid start to US earnings season and further subsequent gains for US equity futures had also aided Usd strength. Focus now shifts to the ECB policy decision this week, and we suspect the meeting might be enough to spur a more defiant dip-buying approach. Strengthening CEE Inflationary Pressures Call For Tighter Monetary Policy Tight labour markets and rising consumption have been a supportive factor for CEE inflation and together with firmer oil price pressures, have pushed CPI to the limits of policymakers' tolerance levels and beyond in recent months. Stuck in The Middle China removed from the US FX manipulator list. US Treasuries hardly react. Phase 1 deal signed. Little reaction. Beige Book showing labour shortages (which in theory should push up wages). Nada. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: No Slowdown in Credit Clean-up in 2020

    By Riki Zhang 14 Jan 2020

    China’s corporate bond sector ended the year 2019 with heightened concerns about defaults. With the bond exchange and tender offers by the Tewoo Group in December marking the first time a Chinese state-owned enterprise has defaulted on its USD bonds in 20 years, we are afraid that China corporate bond defaults will continue to stay elevated in 2020, no better than what we saw over the past two years. We're not surprised by an intensification of credit defaults in 2018 and 2019 given the fact that many private enterprises rushed to issue onshore bonds with a maturity of 2-3 years back in 2016. However, we also attribute the sharp increase in credit defaults over the past two years to China policymakers' intention to prioritize credit clean-up. Simply speaking, the policymakers just let defaults occur as they wanted to see over-levered corporate entities fail and restructure their indebtedness. We don't think the policymakers' attitude will change significantly in 2020. As such, there is a good chance that onshore private enterprises will continue to see their credit spreads staying wide over the next few quarters (chart 1).      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 01.13.20

    13 Jan 2020

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: US High Grade: Bond Issuance Frenzy May Not Last Long The US high-grade bond markets may have ended the week on a euphoric high clocking over $65bln in volume making it the third busiest on record, but this frenzy of debt issuance is unlikely to last beyond a few months, said strategists and bankers. The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish A look at our dashboard shows BOE H1 rate cut probability up to 63%, a series high following dovish comments from MPCers - Carney, Tenreyro and Vlieghe - in the last week. European FIG Snapshot: Huge Supply Underpinned by Massive Demand While a rush to lock in funding during the early part of January is nothing new, the sheer scale and pace of this year's scramble to do so has taken many by surprise. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Year 2020 - USD/RMB in 6.9-7.2 Range, Phase-2 Deal too Tough for China

    By Riki Zhang 17 Dec 2019

    Into year end, we continue to see USD/CNH remain highly sensitive to tariff-related news. As far as US-China trade negotiations, we think the phase-one trade deal will get done in January or February if not by the 15 December tariff deadline. At worst, the Trump administration goes ahead with the new tariffs on 15 December and then make a complete rollback once a deal gets done. We don't think a failure to get the phase-one trade deal done by 15 Dec will result in a shutdown of negotiations as both Xi and Trump do not want an escalation of US-China tensions. Our baseline scenario assumes the two sides will agree on a phase-one deal in January or February 2020 if not in December this year with partial or complete rollback of September tariffs, while China will significantly increase US agricultural imports. The rollback in tariffs could be made contingent on China meeting its commitments in the deal. It would likely also include an implicit understanding that China would confine USD/CNY to a tariff-adjusted range. A comprehensive agreement on the more contentious issues of intellectual property rights, technology transfers, and China's industrial policy will likely have to await the second phase of the deal. In our view, the phase-two deal is far more challenging to China than phase-one, so we won't be surprised if it fails to emerge before or even after the US Presidential election in November 2020. We don't expect Washington will agree to roll back the tariffs imposed prior to September unless the phase-two trade deal is worked out. Assuming a phase-one deal is reached sometime over mid-Dec to late-Feb, we expect USD/CNH will likely re-see 6.90 in Q1 amid a stabilisation or even a moderate rebound of GDP growth. Subsequently, the pair will be heading for 7.20 again in H2 (chart 1). We attribute a re-emergence of RMB depreciation pressure in H2 to Beijing's reluctance to reach a very tough phase-two deal with Washington as the US Presidential election approaches and a deterioration of China's growth momentum as we progress into 2H20 (chart 2). From the Chinese leader's perspective, it makes sense to avoid any much tougher deal with the US before the US Presidential election. However, with much stricter capital controls coming into effect in 2020, we don't think runaway RMB depreciation, like we saw in 2016, will re-surface even if China's growth outlook turns gloomy again (chart 3). At worst, any breach of 7.20 will be only temporary and marginal.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 12.16.19

    16 Dec 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: European High Yield: Merry Berry Brings Festive Cheer High yield issuance rolled on for another week as Berry Global braved last week's full diary of event risk (Fed and ECB rate decisions, a UK election, and looming US tariff deadline of Dec 15). And given that potentially volatile backdrop it is helpful to be able to tap into some of the popular motifs in high yield and Berry Global was certainly able to do that… Turkey’s Growth Dilemma Could Destabilise Lira For those worrying about Turkey, the most pressing fundamental issue that Turkish bears should focus on heading into 2020 is the basic dilemma of the government's short-term focus on growth via credit, which carries the risk of destabilising the Lira, as it did in 2018. The SEK Week - Bias is Bullish It's the Riksbank decision this week (Thursday) and it's almost certain that the Bank will deliver a 25bps hike. Recall at its last meeting, the Riksbank left rates on hold at -0.25% but hawkishly revealed that rates will "probably be raised in Dec to zero". Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Year 2020 – Growth Sluggish, While Monetary Policy Cautious

    By Riki Zhang 10 Dec 2019

    After suffering slow growth in 2019, China will find 2020 another tough year for the economy as trade tension uncertainty continues to hurt business confidence while supply-side shock to consumer price restrains room for monetary easing in 1H20. We will unlikely see notable growth stabilisation or a rebound till 2H2020 at the earliest, provided the US-China trade tension does not escalate. China has been hardest hit by the global economic slowdown since 2Q18 due to trade tensions and its structural deleveraging. 2019 is a year of stress as trade tensions continued to escalate and policymakers further tightened property policy. The GDP growth decelerated from 6.8% in 1Q2018 to 6% in 3Q2019 and will likely reach 6.1% for full-year 2019. Further slowdown in 2020 seems unavoidable, so we won't be surprised if GDP growth sees as low as 5.7% in 2020 on a full-year basis (chart 1).

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 12.09.19

    09 Dec 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral Going into the polling day, we'll maintain a buy dips bias, but expect activity to slow pretty dramatically over coming sessions unless polls take a surprise turn. If Johnson can increase his lead further and maintain a solid 14-15% lead into Thursday then we could see GBP/USD ticking higher still towards 1.32-33, even 1.3500, but in truth we expect more cautious trade than that. South African Bond Investors Are Not Waiting Around For a Moody's Cut to Junk South Africa's benchmark 10-year bond yield is trading at more than 9% and with inflation running at less than half that, means that the government is forced to borrow at one of the highest real rates for any investment grade credit. Asia Credit Insight: Chinese Issuers Fuel Increase in November 69 issuers raised a total of US$33.637bn of funding in the APAC primary US$ market in the month of November from 78 separate tranches, which registered a 4.4% increase month-on-month and a 2.9% rise year-on-year. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond Inflows Slow Down But RMB FX Little Impacted

    By Tim Cheung 03 Dec 2019

    Chinese onshore bonds saw a reduction of net inflows to USD2bn in October, down 82% from a month ago (chart 1). Foreign investors' net purchase of CGBs slowed to USD2.2bn, down 70% from September. Meanwhile, policy bank notes and NCDs saw small outflows of -USD0.5bn and -USD0.8bn respectively, vs an inflow of USD2bn to each of them in September. We attributed the slowdown in bond inflows largely to bear-steepening of the CGB yield curve as a result of the growing reluctance of PBOC to ease monetary policy in an environment of rising CPI inflation.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 12.02.19

    02 Dec 2019

    The Context 12.02.19

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro High Yield: November Volumes at a High November took the baton from October and ran with it, as high yield corporate issuance (ex financials) in euro topped the previous month's issuance which itself was a two-year high water mark. On a quarterly basis, Q4 is already the busiest quarter in two years. The AUD Week - Bias is Bearish This week, the RBA meet for the last time this year, and while no change is forecast (just 10% chance of a cut being priced), focus will be on the Bank's forward guidance. Turkey Testing U.S. Senators’ Sanctions Patience The Turkish military started testing its S-400 missile defence systems and as planned the system, which Turkey controversially agreed to purchase from Russia in 2017, is on track to be fully operational by April. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: PBOC Constrained by Challenging CPI Inflation

    By Riki Zhang 26 Nov 2019

    China Insight 1126

    In the Q3 monetary policy report released in the middle of this month, PBOC suggested that the less dovish stance in monetary policy that we have seen since August may continue in the coming months, given the challenging CPI inflation outlook. To avoid public misinterpretation of being "less dovish" as a signal of a shift towards tightening, PBOC on 18 November resumed the 7-day reverse repo to inject liquidity and lowered the reverse repo rate by 5bp to 2.5%, the first reverse repo rate cut in this easing cycle (chart 1). The cut aimed to lower the wholesale funding cost and then to translate into a lower corporate borrowing cost. The magnitude of the cut was small, suggesting PBOC is constrained by the accelerating CPI inflation which reached as high as 3.8% y/y in October.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.25.19

    25 Nov 2019

    The Context 11.25.19

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro Corp Comment: Multi-Tranchers Drive a Bumper Week, Investors Remain Receptive Investment grade corporate issuers have now led overall euro supply for four consecutive weeks with the asset class last week accounting for 53.7% of the aggregate EUR28.475bn to print in the single currency. Outlook Still Constructive For EM Local Currency Bonds After This Year's Rally Sluggish growth, together with muted inflation has resulted in a broad shift towards more accommodative monetary policy globally and ultimately created compelling opportunities in EM local currency bonds. The JPY Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish Despite a number of firms calling out a lower Usd/Jpy in recent weeks we cannot help but admire its ongoing resilience. We are happy to stay long admittedly at a good level at 107.99 for 111.00-plus on a seasonality basis. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: More Small Banks in Trouble as Re-leveraging Underway

    By Tim Cheung 19 Nov 2019

    China Insight 1118

    The health of China's smaller banks has come under pressure as Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank and Yingkou Coastal bank are said to have suffered bank runs in recent weeks amid fears over poor management and liquidity issues. Earlier this year, a rare government takeover of Baoshang Bank and a state rescue of Jinzhou Bank and Hengfeng Bank raised concerns about the underlying health of hundreds of small banks in China. Admittedly, China has entered another round of re-leveraging, albeit a softer one this time. With the fundamental issue of macro leverage unsolved, we expect China's debt-to-GDP ratio, currently in the 290-300% area, to reach 320% by 2025 (chart 1).  

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.18.19

    18 Nov 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Brl/Mxn Corrects Lower, But Still See Mxn Underperformance in Medium-term Due to Mexico's challenging GDP growth outlook, the reduction of the real rate and lingering risk of credit rating downgrades, we still see scope for Mxn underperformance in the medium-term. Whilst the Brl rally has paused, and for good reason, the arguments we presented for Brazilian economic outperformance remain. Euro Corp Comment: Issuance Slows But it Remains a Seller’s Market It was another active week for the European corporate bond market where another EUR7.455bn printed in the single currency courtesy of eleven issuers (13 tranches). Whilst being a decent total, it did however mark a considerable slowdown from the jumbo EUR11.25bn that hit the tape the week prior. What remained constant though was that there remained plenty of cash directed toward new corporate offerings… The CAD Week - Bias is Neutral to Bearish We get some major releases this week out of Canada, with manufacturing sales, CPI and retail sales being released on Tue, Wed and Fri respectively, but ultimately the most influential topic for the BoC is the ongoing trade war and its effect on domestic industry. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News