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Financial Intelligence:最新

無料解析

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Liquidity tightens despite easing bond supply

    China interbank 7-day repo rate fixing set fresh year-high 3.15% in the week ending 30 October (chart 1), reflecting intensifying funding pressure despite bond supply for the year having already passed its peak...

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Reasons behind sustained RMB appreciation

    PBOC announced on 10 October that the FX risk reserve ratio for forward USD purchases vs CNY would be lowered from 20% to 0% effective immediately. Before that, PBOC did the same thing in September 2017, leading to a 3-week rally of USD/CNH. However, this time around USD/CNH failed to gain much support from the reduction of the ratio. Instead, the pair resumed downtrend immediately as soon as a 2-day weak rally ended on 13 October. We attribute the sustained RMB appreciation regardless of the said policy change to a couple of factors. First of all, China's balance of payments has been improving more notably this year than in 2017. With China getting the COVID-19 under control more effectively and having its productivity back to normal much earlier, its exports have shown rapid growth since the beginning of summer (chart 1). Meanwhile, from the perspective of capital flow, after experiencing a relatively large capital outflow in March, China saw an encouraging turnaround of the capital flow...

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.26.20

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    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond market bearishness intensifies

    Recall, we delivered the below predictions respectively in two issues of this publication last month: - 11 September -- "Despite the downward pullback of the yield in recent days, we still stick with our cautiously bearish view on the bonds. We won't be surprised if the 10-year CGB yield finally reaches 3.25% or higher in Q4 if the prevailing mini-deleveraging cycle continues". - 18 September -- "In our view, continued reluctance of PBOC to act generously will reinforce the market perception that monetary easing cycle is already over and borrowing costs will be gradually creeping upward. In case of that, there is a good chance we will see a strong selloff in bonds in October". Basically, both predictions have already materialized as 10-year CGB yield already reached as high as 3.23%, fresh high of the year, in the middle of this month (October). That's 11bp higher than September 18's closing level...

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.19.20

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    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond supply remains a concern in Q4

    Supply remains a concern in Q4 (chart 1). With reference to the central government's financing plan for the year, we expect supply of CGBs to remain huge in the rest of the year. Year-to-date the net CGB financing proceeds reached CNY2473bn, with the remaining CNY1307bn for Q4, which accounts for as much as 35% of the full-year net financing target...

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.12.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.05.20

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    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 09.28.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Implications of CGB Inclusion in The WGBI

    As widely expected, FTSE Russell on 24 Sep in the New York afternoon announced that China Government Bonds (CGBs) will be included into the World Government Bond Index (WGBI), effective Oct 2021. Major investment banks estimate that CGBs would receive a weighting of around 5.7% in the WGBI. Assuming AUMs benchmarked to WGBI index is around USD2.5tn, the inclusion would result in USD142bn inflows to the CGB market. Assuming the phasing-in will last for 20 months, same as the time frame set for Bloomberg Barclay's Global Aggregate Index inclusion, CGBs will receive USD7bn inflows per month as a result of WGBIs month-end rebalancing. Once included, China will become the second highest-yielding country in the WGBI (chart 1), which should be very appealing to yield-seekers.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Liquidity Remains Tight, Despite Sizeable MLF

    PBOC on 15 September conducted a CNY600bn 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF), more than enough to roll over the same type of facility (sized at CNY200bn) that expired in the same week. Despite the rate being unchanged at 2.95%, the facility size was large enough to stir up speculation over a possible re-emergence of a looser liquidity environment before and after the upcoming Golden Week holiday. However, what actually happened over the rest of the week suggested the surprisingly large MLF operation was mainly aimed at supporting market sentiment before the CGB auction held on 16 September. As soon as the auction was wrapped up, PBOC immediately showed its reluctance to let liquidity go any looser again. On 17 Sep, PBOC only conducted a small-sized 7-day OMO reverse repo, resulting in a re-emergence of net liquidity withdrawal.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 09.21.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond yields see upside risk as deleveraging in play

    Interbank liquidity tightening during August coincided significantly with the policymakers' introduction of a set of new regulatory measures targeted for property developers. PBOC and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) in mid-Aug had a meeting with major property developers in Beijing on the new rules set to monitor property developers' funding and financing outlook. The new rules include: (1) debt-to-asset ratio must not exceed 70% after contract liabilities; (2) net gearing must not exceed 100%; and (3) Cash-to-short-term debt ratio has to be not less than 1. Developers who fail to meet these requirements are required to submit an action plan by the end of Sep on how to reduce their debt levels within a year and meet all the above three requirements within 3 years. A significant fall in structured deposits and ordinary deposits since the beginning of the year (chart 1) suggests a lot of money has been poured into the real estate market again. That's reflected in the rapid rise in real estate FAI year-to-date (chart 2). Against this backdrop, policymakers have found it necessary to curb the pace of property developers' re-leveraging before it's too late.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 09.14.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    APAC US$ SUPPLY STATS: Issuance declines in August but by less than usual

    The month of August is a typically subdued affair in the APAC US$ primary bond market, with only the month of December producing less issuance volume in the past couple of years. However, while supply did indeed decline sharply from what was a busy month in July, the US$28.577bn of total issuance (including Japan) that did materialize in August 2020 did at least mark a decent jump from those previous year's volumes. That in a month which continued to offer regional issuers across the rating spectrum attractive funding opportunities, supported by a keenness of yield-hungry investors to add inventory in the low rate environment, consistent with a broader appetite for risk.

    Topic industry-news

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Analyst

Jonathan Cavenagh

Analyst, Senior Market Strategist, IGM

Australia

Jonathan Cavenagh

+18 year(s) experience