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Financial Intelligence:最新

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  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond Inflows Pick Up Amid Weak Economy

    As Emerging Markets go into recession, EM policymakers have rapidly deployed a broad range of support measures with more to come, but it remains to be seen how effective these will be in mitigating the EM growth hit. As far as China is concerned, negative GDP growth in Q1 looks unavoidable. The most pessimistic estimate in the street is -9%. For the full-year GDP growth, the revised estimates in the street fall between +1% and +4%. In light of the gloomy economic outlook, Beijing definitely will step up stimulus. Now a cut in the benchmark deposit rate is on the cards, which could be a more meaningful means to boost retail consumption. With interest rates trending downward, onshore government bonds and policy bank bonds have kept rallying recently on the back of strong buy-and-hold demand (chart 1). The latest data suggests the China bond market saw USD11bn of net inflows from foreign investors in February, up from only USD2bn in January (chart 2). Among the paper which is already or being included in the major global government bond indices, policy bank bonds (PBBs) registered a bigger increase in foreign investors' portfolios than China Government Bonds (CGBs). Of the USD11bn of net inflows in February, USD5bn was taken by PBBs, USD4bn by CGBs with the remainder by negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) and medium-term notes (MTNs).      

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.30.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: What Does Recent IRS Curve Steepening Imply?

    China's activity growth data for February were much weaker than expected, suggesting there is a very good chance the Q1 GDP y/y will fall into negative territory. Among forecasts from major investment banks, the most pessimistic ones for China's Q1 growth y/y are now in the -7/-9% range instead of +2/+3% territory seen a month ago, while that for the 2020 full-year growth are in the +1/+3% area rather than +4/+5%. To avoid the economy worsening further in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, Beijing inevitably has to ramp up fiscal spending substantially over the rest of the year. Given the postponement of the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting which was initially scheduled for early March, we so far have no official data on how much the government will spend in 2020. However, with the onshore CNY IRS curve steepening sharply recently (chart 1), we doubt the potential increase in government expenditure will be small. Meanwhile, we reckon most (if not all) of the extra spending will be financed by the issuance of special bonds, in particular, the long-term ones. As per chart 2, special bond issuance increased substantially in Jan and Feb, which may be setting a trend for most of the year.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.23.20

    The Context

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bullish on CGBs as RRR Cut in Sight

    Chinese Premier Li Keqiang held a State Council meeting on 11 March. Two key signals were released there: Speed up credit supply to industries and enterprises. Implement targeted cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) The signals are very clear, so we will see further liquidity loosening in mainland China in the near term. We expect a targeted RRR cut will be announced very soon. Needless to say, further reduction of loan prime rates (LPRs) will also happen at the regular fixing on 20 March. In regard to the China government bond (CGB) trading strategy under the prevailing environment, we here reiterate our bullish view.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.16.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.09.20

    The JPY Week - Bias is Bullish Crazy times and a possible/likely crazy trading range… Euro Corp Snapshot: Investors Still Sweet on Corp Bonds Despite Volatility With markets set to remain volatile as the world tries to contain the coronavirus outbreak, it is perhaps wise to expect a measured week for issuance. That said, as shown by last week's trades, investors appear to still have plenty of cash. More Monetary Easing Eyed as Coronavirus Further Dampens Brazil's Recovery Prospects Bets that Latin America's largest economy would finally take off this year have been eroded by a string of poor economic indicators for Q4.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: 10-year CGB yield will fall to 2.50% in H1

    In this publication, we will update our view on China Government Bonds (CGBs) with the COVID-19 outbreak taken into consideration...      

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Refinancing Pressure on Property Developers Mounts

    China Insight

    It is still too early to say whether the COVID-19 outbreak will be effectively contained by the end of Q1. However, it’s quite certain that Chinese property developers will not see a significant recovery in sales over the rest of this quarter. In the USD bond market, Chinese IG property names saw credit spread tightening after PBOC made a huge liquidity injection and lowered reverse repo rates as soon as the extended LNY holiday was over. As far as Chinese HY property names are concerned, we saw their short-dated papers well absorbed by the market as soon as they were launched in the primary market. All these seems to suggest the developers' balance sheets are barely impacted by the sharp decline of sales. However, if we look at their refinancing schedule more closely, we may doubt such a resilience will be sustained.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 03.02.20

    The Context

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 02.24.20

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: UK-EU: A Clash on Trade While the EU and the UK position themselves (polarised comes to mind) ahead of the start of transition talks and trade deals, a vote in the Netherlands highlights potential issues facing the UK on any trade deal. The NZD Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish Even as RBNZ's Orr talked last week of being in no rush to go lower on interest rates, implied probability of a rate cut by June now stands at 66%. Euro FIG Snapshot: Demand Still Plentiful Despite Shakier Tone Despite the variable tone in markets seen over the course of the week, the primary FIG market continued to spit out deals, albeit at a slightly slower pace, where non-covered FIG issuers raised a total of EUR5.94bn in a polarised week which saw borrowers opt for either senior or AT1 format. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Credit Bonds Will Play Catch up on More Supportive Measures

    The authorities, MOF, PBOC and CBIRC, hosted a joint conference on Feb 7 to provide an update on supportive policies in light of the coronavirus situation. We believe the conference delivered a loosening bias tone as a nimble response to the virus outbreak. Next move following the huge liquidity injection and provision of first batch of special relending funds to more than a dozen of banks is going to be an LPR cut on 20 Feb. We expect a 10bp cut in both 1-year and 5-year LPRs on 20 Feb (chart 1), similar to the magnitude of the latest OMO rate cut. A more sizable cut may mean the policymakers are opting for more aggressive monetary easing to cushion the economic shocks arising from the coronavirus outbreak.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 02.18.20

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The JPY Week - Bias is Bearish Has the impact of coronavirus now peaked? We say such talk is premature and an underlying bid Usd/Jpy will continue to slow into 110.00-plus. Euro FIG Snapshot: Virus Protection Fully Operational With the recovery in risk assets extending into a second week, more issuers emerging from blackout and the credit market's virus protection evidently up to date, the pace picked up in the non-covered primary FIG market last week. Equities Ignore, Hope … Euro Indicates Slowing EMU Economy It doesn’t take much to light a fire under equities, but it is going to take much more to push bond yields higher... Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: How Does The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact Yield Curves?

    With the coronavirus outbreak still evolving, the market signal is clear: less growth and more accommodative policy in China. Further to our forecast given in the previous issue of China Insight that "China will only achieve 4.8-5.3% GDP growth in 2020" because of the disaster, we in the current issue present our view on how the yield curves in China are being impacted. The broadening of the coronavirus outbreak in China, the lockdown of Hubei province and the extension of LNY holiday have already given a hard hit to the manufacturing sector. Due to that, we inevitably will see a fall in PMI indices in Feb and March. At worst, PMI will continue to be under downward pressure over the rest of H1. In our view, some downturn of the manufacturing sector as a result of the disaster is already priced in 5yr IRS, but a drop by 2 to 3 points in PMI from here should still be able to drive IRS much lower to sub-2016 lows. Given the strong correlation between the NBS Manufacturing PMI and 5yr CNY IRS in the past (chart 1), 5yr IRS at 2.55-2.60% appears to have priced a fall in Feb PMI to around 49.0 from January's 50.0. A further decline in PMI to the 48.0 region in March or during the March-April period, in our view, will bring 5yr IRS down further to 2.35-2.45%.      

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 02.10.20

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro Corp Snapshot: LVMH Monster Drives Biggest Volume Week Since September Corporate issuance surged in the latest week as borrowers emerged from earnings enforced blackouts to hit the market and make the most of what was a more upbeat broader market tone. Policy Paralysis in South Africa Leaves Economy And State Finances on The Brink The South African Rand has always served as an EM bellwether and its increased volatility over the past few weeks is no surprise, but there are also some fundamental drivers behind the currency's current EM-beating losses. Decent US Labour Market Report. Larger Spare Capacity? On the face of it, the January US Employment Report was more than decent. Headline payrolls smashed expectations (225k vs 165k forecast). Services payrolls were +174k from 147k last time. Average earnings also topped projections at 3.1% y/y. Still, yields didn't rise. If anything, they are a little lower. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news