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  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Year 2020 – Growth Sluggish, While Monetary Policy Cautious

    By Riki Zhang 10 Dec 2019

    After suffering slow growth in 2019, China will find 2020 another tough year for the economy as trade tension uncertainty continues to hurt business confidence while supply-side shock to consumer price restrains room for monetary easing in 1H20. We will unlikely see notable growth stabilisation or a rebound till 2H2020 at the earliest, provided the US-China trade tension does not escalate. China has been hardest hit by the global economic slowdown since 2Q18 due to trade tensions and its structural deleveraging. 2019 is a year of stress as trade tensions continued to escalate and policymakers further tightened property policy. The GDP growth decelerated from 6.8% in 1Q2018 to 6% in 3Q2019 and will likely reach 6.1% for full-year 2019. Further slowdown in 2020 seems unavoidable, so we won't be surprised if GDP growth sees as low as 5.7% in 2020 on a full-year basis (chart 1).

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 12.09.19

    09 Dec 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral Going into the polling day, we'll maintain a buy dips bias, but expect activity to slow pretty dramatically over coming sessions unless polls take a surprise turn. If Johnson can increase his lead further and maintain a solid 14-15% lead into Thursday then we could see GBP/USD ticking higher still towards 1.32-33, even 1.3500, but in truth we expect more cautious trade than that. South African Bond Investors Are Not Waiting Around For a Moody's Cut to Junk South Africa's benchmark 10-year bond yield is trading at more than 9% and with inflation running at less than half that, means that the government is forced to borrow at one of the highest real rates for any investment grade credit. Asia Credit Insight: Chinese Issuers Fuel Increase in November 69 issuers raised a total of US$33.637bn of funding in the APAC primary US$ market in the month of November from 78 separate tranches, which registered a 4.4% increase month-on-month and a 2.9% rise year-on-year. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond Inflows Slow Down But RMB FX Little Impacted

    By Tim Cheung 03 Dec 2019

    Chinese onshore bonds saw a reduction of net inflows to USD2bn in October, down 82% from a month ago (chart 1). Foreign investors' net purchase of CGBs slowed to USD2.2bn, down 70% from September. Meanwhile, policy bank notes and NCDs saw small outflows of -USD0.5bn and -USD0.8bn respectively, vs an inflow of USD2bn to each of them in September. We attributed the slowdown in bond inflows largely to bear-steepening of the CGB yield curve as a result of the growing reluctance of PBOC to ease monetary policy in an environment of rising CPI inflation.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 12.02.19

    02 Dec 2019

    The Context 12.02.19

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro High Yield: November Volumes at a High November took the baton from October and ran with it, as high yield corporate issuance (ex financials) in euro topped the previous month's issuance which itself was a two-year high water mark. On a quarterly basis, Q4 is already the busiest quarter in two years. The AUD Week - Bias is Bearish This week, the RBA meet for the last time this year, and while no change is forecast (just 10% chance of a cut being priced), focus will be on the Bank's forward guidance. Turkey Testing U.S. Senators’ Sanctions Patience The Turkish military started testing its S-400 missile defence systems and as planned the system, which Turkey controversially agreed to purchase from Russia in 2017, is on track to be fully operational by April. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: PBOC Constrained by Challenging CPI Inflation

    By Riki Zhang 26 Nov 2019

    China Insight 1126

    In the Q3 monetary policy report released in the middle of this month, PBOC suggested that the less dovish stance in monetary policy that we have seen since August may continue in the coming months, given the challenging CPI inflation outlook. To avoid public misinterpretation of being "less dovish" as a signal of a shift towards tightening, PBOC on 18 November resumed the 7-day reverse repo to inject liquidity and lowered the reverse repo rate by 5bp to 2.5%, the first reverse repo rate cut in this easing cycle (chart 1). The cut aimed to lower the wholesale funding cost and then to translate into a lower corporate borrowing cost. The magnitude of the cut was small, suggesting PBOC is constrained by the accelerating CPI inflation which reached as high as 3.8% y/y in October.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.25.19

    25 Nov 2019

    The Context 11.25.19

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro Corp Comment: Multi-Tranchers Drive a Bumper Week, Investors Remain Receptive Investment grade corporate issuers have now led overall euro supply for four consecutive weeks with the asset class last week accounting for 53.7% of the aggregate EUR28.475bn to print in the single currency. Outlook Still Constructive For EM Local Currency Bonds After This Year's Rally Sluggish growth, together with muted inflation has resulted in a broad shift towards more accommodative monetary policy globally and ultimately created compelling opportunities in EM local currency bonds. The JPY Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish Despite a number of firms calling out a lower Usd/Jpy in recent weeks we cannot help but admire its ongoing resilience. We are happy to stay long admittedly at a good level at 107.99 for 111.00-plus on a seasonality basis. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: More Small Banks in Trouble as Re-leveraging Underway

    By Tim Cheung 19 Nov 2019

    China Insight 1118

    The health of China's smaller banks has come under pressure as Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank and Yingkou Coastal bank are said to have suffered bank runs in recent weeks amid fears over poor management and liquidity issues. Earlier this year, a rare government takeover of Baoshang Bank and a state rescue of Jinzhou Bank and Hengfeng Bank raised concerns about the underlying health of hundreds of small banks in China. Admittedly, China has entered another round of re-leveraging, albeit a softer one this time. With the fundamental issue of macro leverage unsolved, we expect China's debt-to-GDP ratio, currently in the 290-300% area, to reach 320% by 2025 (chart 1).  

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.18.19

    18 Nov 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Brl/Mxn Corrects Lower, But Still See Mxn Underperformance in Medium-term Due to Mexico's challenging GDP growth outlook, the reduction of the real rate and lingering risk of credit rating downgrades, we still see scope for Mxn underperformance in the medium-term. Whilst the Brl rally has paused, and for good reason, the arguments we presented for Brazilian economic outperformance remain. Euro Corp Comment: Issuance Slows But it Remains a Seller’s Market It was another active week for the European corporate bond market where another EUR7.455bn printed in the single currency courtesy of eleven issuers (13 tranches). Whilst being a decent total, it did however mark a considerable slowdown from the jumbo EUR11.25bn that hit the tape the week prior. What remained constant though was that there remained plenty of cash directed toward new corporate offerings… The CAD Week - Bias is Neutral to Bearish We get some major releases this week out of Canada, with manufacturing sales, CPI and retail sales being released on Tue, Wed and Fri respectively, but ultimately the most influential topic for the BoC is the ongoing trade war and its effect on domestic industry. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Long-Awaited MLF Rate Cut Finally Happened

    By Riki Zhang 12 Nov 2019

    China Insight 1112 1

    PBOC cut the 1-year mid-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 5bp to 3.25% on 5 November (chart 1) while rolling over the matured MLF refinancing. The cut will likely drive down the loan prime rate (LPR) further, which was left unchanged at 4.20% and will be repriced on 20 November (chart 2). As the first cut in the MLF rate in this easing cycle, it suggests PBOC is faced with growing risk of further economic slowdown. However, the magnitude of the cut is small, reflecting the degree of monetary easing is constrained by growing CPI inflation.  

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.11.19

    11 Nov 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The Power of Trade Talk Given events towards the end of last week, focus will fall on any details of the Phase 1 trade deal currently under negotiation between the US and China. The moves were sharp in debt markets which suggests any sort of negative news flow will lead to an equally sharp reversal. The NZD Week - Bias is Neutral RBNZ rate cut probability for Nov, i.e. early Wed, is back at 60%. On balance, we think the RBNZ could wait, but suspect the market will stay cautious. Outlook Into Year-end Now Looks More Positive For EMs The Emerging Market carry trade is so far heading for its best quarter in two (and possibly in four if upside persists), and in an environment of still ultra-low global bond yields and with some concerns starting to creep in over equity valuations after a surge in stocks, currency related strategies may find particular favour among investors. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Special Bond Issuance Will be Subdued in Q4

    By Riki Zhang 05 Nov 2019

    China Insight 1105

    Given the lower-than-budgeted fiscal revenue growth so far in 2019 (chart 1), the central government may find it difficult to fulfil its fiscal transfer budgets. As such, local governments could rely more on borrowing to support infrastructure investment. As the total local government bond issuance quota of CNY3.1tn has been fulfilled this year, the total size of extra issuance could be up to CNY2.5tn (including CNY1.3tn in general and CNY1.2tn in special) if necessary. If the government decides to fully utilize the extra special bond issuance quota within the debt ceiling, it could bring CNY2.1tn funds to the government to support infrastructure investment. However, chart 2 shows that special bond issuance has been subdued since it reached its year-high in June. Given the restricted commencement of winter construction, special bond issuance will likely remain subdued in Q4.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.04.19

    04 Nov 2019

    The Context 11.04.19

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The AUD Week - Bias is Bullish The RBA decision takes centre stage this week, and the Bank is widely forecast to keep rates steady at 0.75%, with a mere 6% chance of a cut currently priced. Evidence of Damage Wrought. Little Central Bankers Can Do South Korean exports continue to plummet (-14.7% y/y in October) indicative of the slowdown in both global trade and in turn economic growth. That the US isn’t insulated from these dynamics was made clear by the Fed chief after the October FOMC. Still, domestic demand continues to bound along at a healthy pace in the US and remains supportive in other jurisdictions… Pinera Gives More Ground to Chilean Protesters, But is CLP Ripe For Bulls? There have been over ten days of riots, protests and strikes in Chile, and after adopting a number of stances (from tough to conciliatory) and failing to quell the unrest with a raft of proposed policy changes, President Pinera has given in to demands and fired eight ministers, including the interior, finance and economy ministers. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: IRS Curve Appears Too Steep to Reflect Slowdown Risk

    By Riki Zhang 29 Oct 2019

    Real GDP growth eased to 6.0% yoy in 3Q from 6.2% in 2Q, the lower bound of the policy target range this year (chart 1).

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.28.19

    28 Oct 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bullish Data and BoE speak unlikely to be the big movers. There are a clutch of second-tier releases before UK manufacturing PMI on Fri. That will probably garner most interest, forecast unchanged at 48.3. BOJ Preview: Policy Review is Likely to Only Result in Lowered Growth/Inflation Forecasts The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will deliver its policy decision and quarterly outlook report on Thursday 31st October. We are expecting the BOJ to stay on hold. The BOJ is however likely to lower its economic growth/inflation forecasts in the quarterly outlook report. Euro Corp Comment: Issuance Levels Drop, Average NIC Turns Negative The pace of EUR IG supply more than halved last week as a host of earnings updates, an ECB meeting and ongoing political/global growth worries all combined to keep a lid on activity. Whilst supply levels may have dropped, the week's deals showed that investors have plenty of cash to put to work. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.21.19

    21 Oct 2019

    The Context 10.21.19

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The SEK Week - Bias is Bullish It looks to be an interesting week for the Krona as the much-awaited Riksbank decision emerges Thursday. Invges and Ohlsson will give a speech after the decision, while data-wise, household lending, retail sales and PPI are all due Friday. Mexico And Brazil a Drag on LatAm Growth, But Brazil a Brighter Prospect Since the end of July. Latin American currencies have underperformed their EM peers versus the USD, as reflected in the Bloomberg JPM Latin America Currency Index, which has slumped circa 8.50% since around mid-July, compared with a drop of 2.5% in the broader MSCI EM Currency Index. Covered Snapshot: Weekly Wrap, Charts & Stats There was an uptick in last week's Euro-denominated Covered supply to EUR2.05bn (w/e 18 October) from EUR2bn the prior week. Year-to-date issuance now stands at EUR124.4bn versus EUR125.775bn sold during the same period in 2018. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

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