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IGm credit| Data analysis tools | Financial intelligence

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投資適格、高利回り、ストラクチャードファイナンス、新興市場部門をカバーし、以下のものを含む、債券の価格変動に関する完全な情報を提供します。

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Financial Intelligence:最新

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  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: A return of focus to credit clean-up in 2021

    Concerns over China corporate credit risk have come to the forefront since the beginning of Q4, highlighted by three high-grade issuers' defaults: 1. AAA-rated Huachen Auto Group (onshore), 2. AAA-rated Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Group (onshore), 3. AAA-rated Tsinghua Unigroup (offshore) Coincidentally, all of these three issuers are state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in nature. This, to a certain extent reflects central government's bias in favour of a return to policy normalisation and possibly a second round of financial deleveraging (following the first round in 2017). Chart 1 shows that China's total debt to GDP ratio may have reached as high as 290% by the end of this year, so there is a need for deleveraging regardless of the defaults YTD being smaller than those in the previous two years both in terms of the total number and the total size of events (chart 2). From the perspective of the policymakers, with various kind of economic activities having returned to their pre-COVID levels, a return of the focus to credit clean-up should be more beneficial to long-term economic development... 

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Slower and bumpier RMB appreciation in year ahead

    China Insight

    There is good chance China will be the only major economy in the world to generate positive GDP growth (around 2%) in 2020 due largely to its effective pandemic containment measures and consequently the faster recovery of the production and consumption. As far as the FX is concerned, RMB has been appreciating against USD since the beginning of June on the back of broad-based weakness of greenback (chart 1). Besides, RMB has also been appreciating against all EM Asia currencies (except KRW) since USD's multi-month downtrend kicked off in early-summer. We attribute the RMB's outperformance relative to the rest of EM Asia to growing hopes of a victory of Biden in the 2020 presidential election, who's obviously far less hostile to China and promised to remove the existing tariffs on China in case he becomes the next US president...

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Deleveraging already starts to kick in, as per PBOC Q3 report

    China Insight

    PBOC Q3 monetary policy report released on 26 November reinforces our view that liquidity will be going tighter and deleveraging may be getting more prominent in the months ahead. The report, echoing the need to stabilize leverage, direct financing and control financial risk suggested by PBOC governor Yi Gang in a research paper published on 17 Nov, indicates second-phase deleveraging is kicking in, though it, in terms of magnitude, may be more gentle than the first-phase in 2017 (chart 1).

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.23.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Eyes on bond defaults and tightening liquidity

    While COVID remains well under control in mainland China, we have seen a surge in credit defaults there since the beginning of Q4. So far this quarter, we have seen four major bond defaults in China: 1. Huachen Auto Group, 2. Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Group, 3. Tsinghua Unigroup, 4. Fujian Fusheng Group. With credit quality in selected sectors worsening, interbank liquidity is going tighter regardless of less supply of government bonds in this quarter (chart 1) than the previous one. In interbank market, 1-month and 3-month repo are back at 3.00% and 3.20% respectively, the upper-end of their trading ranges since the middle of 2019 (chart 2). That means regardless of the counter-pandemic monetary easing across the globe since some 9 months ago, financing costs in mainland China, as represented by interbank repo rates, some how are back at their pre-pandemic levels.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.16.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: PBOC stresses their bias in favour of tightening again

    PBOC once again raised the prospect of winding down its monetary easing policies, though the central banks in Europe may be considering to ease further amid the broadening of the second wave of COVID. On 6 November, PBOC official delivered remarks on the monetary environment at a conference. Liu Guoqiang, PBOC vice governor: "Exit is a matter of timing, and it is also necessary. But the timing and method of exit need to be carefully evaluated, mainly based on the status of economic recovery". Sun Guofeng, PBOC director of the Monetary policy department: "The policy introduced during the special periods will be adjusted in due course". The remarks by Liu and Sun were very much in consistence with what PBOC governor Yi Gang said at Lujiazui forum back in June. At the forum, Yi said "we need to consider a timely exit of policy tools in advance". Though PBOC's growing bias in favour of an exit of counter-pandemic monetary stimulus does not necessarily mean that monetary policy will be tightened immediately, it may result in a gradual reduction of liquidity supply. Chart 1 shows that liquidity so far this year has been notably tighter, despite the outbreak of COVID...

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.09.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: How does Ant IPO delay impact funding market

    Ant Group announced a delay of its IPO (supposed to be the world's biggest IPO of all time) on 3 November. Before the delay was announced, CBIRC and PBOC on 2 November jointly published the consultation paper for "Provisional Rules on Online Microcredit Business", which proposed a package of new measures against online microcredit companies (OLMCCS), including Ant Group...

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Liquidity tightens despite easing bond supply

    China interbank 7-day repo rate fixing set fresh year-high 3.15% in the week ending 30 October (chart 1), reflecting intensifying funding pressure despite bond supply for the year having already passed its peak...

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 11.02.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.26.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Reasons behind sustained RMB appreciation

    PBOC announced on 10 October that the FX risk reserve ratio for forward USD purchases vs CNY would be lowered from 20% to 0% effective immediately. Before that, PBOC did the same thing in September 2017, leading to a 3-week rally of USD/CNH. However, this time around USD/CNH failed to gain much support from the reduction of the ratio. Instead, the pair resumed downtrend immediately as soon as a 2-day weak rally ended on 13 October. We attribute the sustained RMB appreciation regardless of the said policy change to a couple of factors. First of all, China's balance of payments has been improving more notably this year than in 2017. With China getting the COVID-19 under control more effectively and having its productivity back to normal much earlier, its exports have shown rapid growth since the beginning of summer (chart 1). Meanwhile, from the perspective of capital flow, after experiencing a relatively large capital outflow in March, China saw an encouraging turnaround of the capital flow...

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 10.19.20

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    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Bond market bearishness intensifies

    Recall, we delivered the below predictions respectively in two issues of this publication last month: - 11 September -- "Despite the downward pullback of the yield in recent days, we still stick with our cautiously bearish view on the bonds. We won't be surprised if the 10-year CGB yield finally reaches 3.25% or higher in Q4 if the prevailing mini-deleveraging cycle continues". - 18 September -- "In our view, continued reluctance of PBOC to act generously will reinforce the market perception that monetary easing cycle is already over and borrowing costs will be gradually creeping upward. In case of that, there is a good chance we will see a strong selloff in bonds in October". Basically, both predictions have already materialized as 10-year CGB yield already reached as high as 3.23%, fresh high of the year, in the middle of this month (October). That's 11bp higher than September 18's closing level...

    Topic industry-news

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チームに会う

Analyst

Woon Tian Yong

Analyst, Data & Quantitative Solutions Specialist

Singapore

Woon Tian Yong

Woon specializes in

  • Rates and FX
  • Fund Flows

+6 year(s) experience