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  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 02.24.20

    24 Feb 2020

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: UK-EU: A Clash on Trade While the EU and the UK position themselves (polarised comes to mind) ahead of the start of transition talks and trade deals, a vote in the Netherlands highlights potential issues facing the UK on any trade deal. The NZD Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish Even as RBNZ's Orr talked last week of being in no rush to go lower on interest rates, implied probability of a rate cut by June now stands at 66%. Euro FIG Snapshot: Demand Still Plentiful Despite Shakier Tone Despite the variable tone in markets seen over the course of the week, the primary FIG market continued to spit out deals, albeit at a slightly slower pace, where non-covered FIG issuers raised a total of EUR5.94bn in a polarised week which saw borrowers opt for either senior or AT1 format. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Credit Bonds Will Play Catch up on More Supportive Measures

    By Riki Zhang | EM Analyst 18 Feb 2020

    The authorities, MOF, PBOC and CBIRC, hosted a joint conference on Feb 7 to provide an update on supportive policies in light of the coronavirus situation. We believe the conference delivered a loosening bias tone as a nimble response to the virus outbreak. Next move following the huge liquidity injection and provision of first batch of special relending funds to more than a dozen of banks is going to be an LPR cut on 20 Feb. We expect a 10bp cut in both 1-year and 5-year LPRs on 20 Feb (chart 1), similar to the magnitude of the latest OMO rate cut. A more sizable cut may mean the policymakers are opting for more aggressive monetary easing to cushion the economic shocks arising from the coronavirus outbreak.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 02.18.20

    18 Feb 2020

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The JPY Week - Bias is Bearish Has the impact of coronavirus now peaked? We say such talk is premature and an underlying bid Usd/Jpy will continue to slow into 110.00-plus. Euro FIG Snapshot: Virus Protection Fully Operational With the recovery in risk assets extending into a second week, more issuers emerging from blackout and the credit market's virus protection evidently up to date, the pace picked up in the non-covered primary FIG market last week. Equities Ignore, Hope … Euro Indicates Slowing EMU Economy It doesn’t take much to light a fire under equities, but it is going to take much more to push bond yields higher... Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: How Does The Coronavirus Outbreak Impact Yield Curves?

    By Riki Zhang | EM Analyst 11 Feb 2020

    With the coronavirus outbreak still evolving, the market signal is clear: less growth and more accommodative policy in China. Further to our forecast given in the previous issue of China Insight that "China will only achieve 4.8-5.3% GDP growth in 2020" because of the disaster, we in the current issue present our view on how the yield curves in China are being impacted. The broadening of the coronavirus outbreak in China, the lockdown of Hubei province and the extension of LNY holiday have already given a hard hit to the manufacturing sector. Due to that, we inevitably will see a fall in PMI indices in Feb and March. At worst, PMI will continue to be under downward pressure over the rest of H1. In our view, some downturn of the manufacturing sector as a result of the disaster is already priced in 5yr IRS, but a drop by 2 to 3 points in PMI from here should still be able to drive IRS much lower to sub-2016 lows. Given the strong correlation between the NBS Manufacturing PMI and 5yr CNY IRS in the past (chart 1), 5yr IRS at 2.55-2.60% appears to have priced a fall in Feb PMI to around 49.0 from January's 50.0. A further decline in PMI to the 48.0 region in March or during the March-April period, in our view, will bring 5yr IRS down further to 2.35-2.45%.      

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 02.10.20

    10 Feb 2020

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: Euro Corp Snapshot: LVMH Monster Drives Biggest Volume Week Since September Corporate issuance surged in the latest week as borrowers emerged from earnings enforced blackouts to hit the market and make the most of what was a more upbeat broader market tone. Policy Paralysis in South Africa Leaves Economy And State Finances on The Brink The South African Rand has always served as an EM bellwether and its increased volatility over the past few weeks is no surprise, but there are also some fundamental drivers behind the currency's current EM-beating losses. Decent US Labour Market Report. Larger Spare Capacity? On the face of it, the January US Employment Report was more than decent. Headline payrolls smashed expectations (225k vs 165k forecast). Services payrolls were +174k from 147k last time. Average earnings also topped projections at 3.1% y/y. Still, yields didn't rise. If anything, they are a little lower. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 02.03.20

    03 Feb 2020

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: European Securitisation: Nationwide Maximises Size And Pricing in All-GBP Trade Two more UK RMBS priced on Thursday, including Nationwide Building Society bringing its biggest public GBP tranche since 2009, and the first pure-GBP deal since 2009 too. The choice of currency was based on relative value between USD and GBP in the RMBS as well as unsecured market. Interest Expectations Change & US Real Yield Sharply Lower Expectations for official interest rates via OIS markets have moved towards easier policy in the wake of the coronavirus and some unflattering data. For instance, the EUR 1Y1M OIS has fallen 10bp from its most recent peak… Euro SSA Snapshot: Another Trio of Sovereigns Jumps in as Yields Plummet SSA euro supply crept up slightly last week where we saw EUR12.85bn hit the tape. Doing the heavy lifting were France, Greece and Austria, whose first syndicated deals of 2020 accounted for 84% of the weekly SSA total, jumping in to make the most of plummeting yields and a broader flight-to-quality. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 01.27.20

    27 Jan 2020

    The Context

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The GBP Week – Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish The Bank of England pretty much now have all the information at their disposal before they meet on Thu, with a quiet week ahead in the UK in terms of major data updates. What will probably be vital to deliberations is the latest agents' survey which will provide an insight into whether the post election PMI bounce is sustainable. Latin American Bond Issuance Sets New Monthly Record The Latin America New Issue Market has kicked off 2020 with unprecedented numbers. With one more week before January ends, LatAm issuers are taking full advantage of favorable market conditions to sell new paper for which there has been robust demand. German Ifo Shows Industry Improving But Coronavirus a Risk The January German Ifo was somewhat of a kick in the teeth for the sentiment is improving thesis. The current assessment met expectations at 99.1. The climate and crucially the expectations components both fell short and were lower than last time. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Is a SARS Repeat on The Way?

    By Riki Zhang | EM Analyst 23 Jan 2020

    China Insight

    According to the report of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, as of Beijing morning 22 Jan 2020, there are more than 400 confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus nationwide. Meanwhile, Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, Japan and the United States also reported confirmed cases of the virus. There are growing fears that an outbreak of the virus will happen across Asia very soon, just like SARS in 2003. Looking at the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, we find it necessary to draw on some experiences from SARS in 2003 in terms of the possible impact on the China/HK markets in coming months. After all, the genetic sequence of the Wuhan coronavirus is 80% similar to the SARS virus found in bats, civets and humans (as per K.Y. Yuen, the Chair of Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong's Department of Microbiology) and the two syndromes also look very close in terms of the timing of outbreak. The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is getting worse with more suspected and confirmed cases reported. More importantly, with the mass movement of population for Lunar New Year (LNY) getting underway we inevitably will see a sharp acceleration of transmission over the next 2-3 weeks. As such, we won't be surprised if the number of confirmed cases is already in 4-digit territory by the end of LNY holiday in mainland China. With reference to the pace of growth in the confirmed cases, many experts believe the Wuhan coronavirus now is still in the initial stage of the outbreak. Assuming it develops in a similar manner as SARS did in 2003 (chart 1), we probably will not see the peak of the number of new cases until March or April.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Property Bonds See Decreasing Net Supply From Now On

    By Riki Zhang 21 Jan 2020

    Both Chinese property stocks and bonds were doing well in Q4 last year due to an increase in home mortgage loans in percentage terms in the banking sector's aggregate loan portfolio (chart 1). This is largely attributed to a recovery of home demand.      

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 01.20.20

    20 Jan 2020

    The Context 01.13.20

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: The EUR Week – Bias is Neutral-Bullish A plethora of firm US data last week, all worked to push Eur/Usd below 1.1100, while positive words from Fed's Harker on growth, a solid start to US earnings season and further subsequent gains for US equity futures had also aided Usd strength. Focus now shifts to the ECB policy decision this week, and we suspect the meeting might be enough to spur a more defiant dip-buying approach. Strengthening CEE Inflationary Pressures Call For Tighter Monetary Policy Tight labour markets and rising consumption have been a supportive factor for CEE inflation and together with firmer oil price pressures, have pushed CPI to the limits of policymakers' tolerance levels and beyond in recent months. Stuck in The Middle China removed from the US FX manipulator list. US Treasuries hardly react. Phase 1 deal signed. Little reaction. Beige Book showing labour shortages (which in theory should push up wages). Nada. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: No Slowdown in Credit Clean-up in 2020

    By Riki Zhang 14 Jan 2020

    China’s corporate bond sector ended the year 2019 with heightened concerns about defaults. With the bond exchange and tender offers by the Tewoo Group in December marking the first time a Chinese state-owned enterprise has defaulted on its USD bonds in 20 years, we are afraid that China corporate bond defaults will continue to stay elevated in 2020, no better than what we saw over the past two years. We're not surprised by an intensification of credit defaults in 2018 and 2019 given the fact that many private enterprises rushed to issue onshore bonds with a maturity of 2-3 years back in 2016. However, we also attribute the sharp increase in credit defaults over the past two years to China policymakers' intention to prioritize credit clean-up. Simply speaking, the policymakers just let defaults occur as they wanted to see over-levered corporate entities fail and restructure their indebtedness. We don't think the policymakers' attitude will change significantly in 2020. As such, there is a good chance that onshore private enterprises will continue to see their credit spreads staying wide over the next few quarters (chart 1).      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 01.13.20

    13 Jan 2020

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: US High Grade: Bond Issuance Frenzy May Not Last Long The US high-grade bond markets may have ended the week on a euphoric high clocking over $65bln in volume making it the third busiest on record, but this frenzy of debt issuance is unlikely to last beyond a few months, said strategists and bankers. The GBP Week - Bias is Neutral-to-Bearish A look at our dashboard shows BOE H1 rate cut probability up to 63%, a series high following dovish comments from MPCers - Carney, Tenreyro and Vlieghe - in the last week. European FIG Snapshot: Huge Supply Underpinned by Massive Demand While a rush to lock in funding during the early part of January is nothing new, the sheer scale and pace of this year's scramble to do so has taken many by surprise. Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Year 2020 - USD/RMB in 6.9-7.2 Range, Phase-2 Deal too Tough for China

    By Riki Zhang 17 Dec 2019

    Into year end, we continue to see USD/CNH remain highly sensitive to tariff-related news. As far as US-China trade negotiations, we think the phase-one trade deal will get done in January or February if not by the 15 December tariff deadline. At worst, the Trump administration goes ahead with the new tariffs on 15 December and then make a complete rollback once a deal gets done. We don't think a failure to get the phase-one trade deal done by 15 Dec will result in a shutdown of negotiations as both Xi and Trump do not want an escalation of US-China tensions. Our baseline scenario assumes the two sides will agree on a phase-one deal in January or February 2020 if not in December this year with partial or complete rollback of September tariffs, while China will significantly increase US agricultural imports. The rollback in tariffs could be made contingent on China meeting its commitments in the deal. It would likely also include an implicit understanding that China would confine USD/CNY to a tariff-adjusted range. A comprehensive agreement on the more contentious issues of intellectual property rights, technology transfers, and China's industrial policy will likely have to await the second phase of the deal. In our view, the phase-two deal is far more challenging to China than phase-one, so we won't be surprised if it fails to emerge before or even after the US Presidential election in November 2020. We don't expect Washington will agree to roll back the tariffs imposed prior to September unless the phase-two trade deal is worked out. Assuming a phase-one deal is reached sometime over mid-Dec to late-Feb, we expect USD/CNH will likely re-see 6.90 in Q1 amid a stabilisation or even a moderate rebound of GDP growth. Subsequently, the pair will be heading for 7.20 again in H2 (chart 1). We attribute a re-emergence of RMB depreciation pressure in H2 to Beijing's reluctance to reach a very tough phase-two deal with Washington as the US Presidential election approaches and a deterioration of China's growth momentum as we progress into 2H20 (chart 2). From the Chinese leader's perspective, it makes sense to avoid any much tougher deal with the US before the US Presidential election. However, with much stricter capital controls coming into effect in 2020, we don't think runaway RMB depreciation, like we saw in 2016, will re-surface even if China's growth outlook turns gloomy again (chart 3). At worst, any breach of 7.20 will be only temporary and marginal.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 12.16.19

    16 Dec 2019

    Inside this week’s edition of The Context, Financial Intelligence thought leaders discuss: European High Yield: Merry Berry Brings Festive Cheer High yield issuance rolled on for another week as Berry Global braved last week's full diary of event risk (Fed and ECB rate decisions, a UK election, and looming US tariff deadline of Dec 15). And given that potentially volatile backdrop it is helpful to be able to tap into some of the popular motifs in high yield and Berry Global was certainly able to do that… Turkey’s Growth Dilemma Could Destabilise Lira For those worrying about Turkey, the most pressing fundamental issue that Turkish bears should focus on heading into 2020 is the basic dilemma of the government's short-term focus on growth via credit, which carries the risk of destabilising the Lira, as it did in 2018. The SEK Week - Bias is Bullish It's the Riksbank decision this week (Thursday) and it's almost certain that the Bank will deliver a 25bps hike. Recall at its last meeting, the Riksbank left rates on hold at -0.25% but hawkishly revealed that rates will "probably be raised in Dec to zero". Read more from The Context and subscribe to have it delivered to your inbox each week!

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Year 2020 – Growth Sluggish, While Monetary Policy Cautious

    By Riki Zhang 10 Dec 2019

    After suffering slow growth in 2019, China will find 2020 another tough year for the economy as trade tension uncertainty continues to hurt business confidence while supply-side shock to consumer price restrains room for monetary easing in 1H20. We will unlikely see notable growth stabilisation or a rebound till 2H2020 at the earliest, provided the US-China trade tension does not escalate. China has been hardest hit by the global economic slowdown since 2Q18 due to trade tensions and its structural deleveraging. 2019 is a year of stress as trade tensions continued to escalate and policymakers further tightened property policy. The GDP growth decelerated from 6.8% in 1Q2018 to 6% in 3Q2019 and will likely reach 6.1% for full-year 2019. Further slowdown in 2020 seems unavoidable, so we won't be surprised if GDP growth sees as low as 5.7% in 2020 on a full-year basis (chart 1).

    Topic industry-news

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