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IGm credit| Data analysis tools | Financial intelligence

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  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: NPC Announced Smaller-Than-Expected CGSB Issuance

    The NPC meeting officially kicked off in Beijing (22 May). There, Premier Li Keqiang announced: - a CNY1,000bn issuance of central government special bonds (CGSB), versus the market consensus of CNY2,000bn - a CNY3,750bn issuance of local government special bonds, versus last year's CNY2,150bn and a market consensus of CNY3,500-4,000bn - a rise in fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio target to 3.6%, vs last year's 2.8%.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 05.25.20

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    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: After a Strong Sell-Off, Bonds Look Attractive Again

    China Insight 0514

    The bond market got sold off sharply in the first half of May, regardless of the stable liquidity. We attribute the sell-off partly to mounting supply pressure and partly to the market being overly crowded with long positions.

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 05.18.20

    The Context

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    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: CNH is Showing Last Bit of Strength

    On 7th May 2020, PBOC and SAFE officially issued the "Measures on Capital Management of Foreign Institutional Investors Investing in Securities and Futures in China". The key features of this policy are summarized below: The quota mechanism for QFII/RQFII is abolished; Foreign institutional investors can remit in foreign currency (FCY) or Renminbi (RMB) or both depending on their investment needs, and open the corresponding FCY and RMB accounts. Restrictions on custodian appointment no longer exist. That means the foreign institutional investor can appoint multiple custodians based on their business needs. Foreign institutional investors can choose to provide the tax commitment letter for each profit repatriation, or provide a onetime tax commitment letter stating covered period and the cumulative profit amount for repatriation. The new policy will come into effect on 6 June 2020. As per the state-owned media, the removal of the quota restrictions on QFII, RQFII is aimed at boosting financial opening. But we believe it, to a certain extent, is more or less driven by policymakers' concerns over FX reserves adequacy. Chart 1 shows that China's FX reserves have been failing to increase further since reaching USD3119bn in summer last year. With monetary easing underway, more FX reserves are needed, otherwise it will be increasingly difficult for PBOC to stabilize RMB FX. It's worth noting that the USD30.9bn increase in FX reserves in April was still far from big enough to offset the USD46.1bn decline in March.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 05.11.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Scenario of Local Govt Bond Supply Before NPC

    Beijing announced that the National People's Congress (NPC) will commence its annual meeting on 22 May, after being postponed from 5 March due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Nobody is sure if the year 2020 GDP growth target will be announced there given the deep downturn in Q1. If a target is given, we guess it is going to be at an achievable level, say 3% or slightly lower. No matter whether a growth target will be given, we will definitely see a bigger fiscal budget deficit number and higher CPI target in the annual Government Work Report (GWR) announced at the NPC. We expect a significant increase in the headline fiscal budget deficit to 4.5% or even 5.0% of GDP in 2020, from the budgeted 2.8% in 2019, given a declining fiscal revenue and an expanding expenditure. Meanwhile, a quota of special local government bond issuance at CNY3.5tn (not surprising if’s as high as CNY4tn) will be given. Moreover, the CPI inflation target will likely be raised to 3.5%. In regard to local government bond issuance, we expect to see a huge supply of local government bonds in May after an issuance of CNY1000bn local government special bonds (i.e. the third batch of local government special bonds for 2020) was announced. In April this year, we saw a seasonal decline in local government bond supply, which will be followed by an increase in May and June (chart 1). Repeating its pattern in previous years, supply will remain abundant in Q3, we believe.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 05.04.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 04.27.20

    The Context

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Short-Term CGBs Look Cheap Ahead of 5/1 Holiday

    China Insight

    The 5/1 holiday is coming which is the first long holiday after the COVID-19 came under control in mainland China. Historically, liquidity tightening would be emerging during the third week of April on the back of holiday-related cash demand from both individuals and business entities. However, this kind of liquidity tightening is not happening this year (chart 1). We think consensus in the market is that Beijing definitely will ensure the banking system is equipped with enough liquidity during the holiday. We won't be surprised if PBOC resumes liquidity injection via OMO right before the holiday starts on 1 May.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: PBOC Makes Consistent Efforts to Lower Funding Costs

    PBOC on 15 April injected CNY100bn of liquidity into the banking system via the 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) at a rate of 2.95%, 20bp lower than the previous operation conducted in mid-March. This move was regarded as a partial rollover of the CNY200bn MLF which fell due on 17 April. On top of this MLF injection, the first batch of 50bp targeted RRR cut also came into effect on the same day, releasing another CNY200bn into the interbank market. Post the withdrawal as a result of the MLF falling due on 17 April, last week saw a net increase in liquidity by CNY100bln. Doubtless, a 20bp cut in the MLF rate was a bit unexpectedly aggressive. However, a partial rather than total rollover of the CNY200bn MLF falling due on 17 April reflected PBOC's unwillingness to allow the system to be equipped with too much liquidity. In the interbank market, funding costs have been trending downward further since the 1-year MLF liquidity injection at a lower rate was announced. Year-to-date, the PBOC has cut the 7-day reverse repo rate and MLF rate by 30bp (chart 1). However, in the same period, interbank 7-day repo rate and SHIBOR in the same tenor have fallen by 140bp and 110bp respectively. Given the pressing need for a recovery of the economy which has already been badly hurt by the COVID-19 outbreak, PBOC has been working very hard to bring the funding costs lower. For the sake of the economy, PBOC has to reduce the borrowing costs not only for business entities and individuals, but also for the central government which, in order to support the growth, has already decided to have a substantial increase in infrastructure investment via debt financing. Chart 2 shows just in Q1 government bond and government-guaranteed bond issuances have increased 65% y/y and 246% y/y respectively.  

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 04.20.20

    The Context

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    The Context 04.14.20

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    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Yield Curve Steepens After IOER Reduction

    China Insight

    PBOC announced on 3 April plans to lower (chart 1) the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for small banks (mostly rural banks and small-sized city commercial banks) by 100bp. It will be implemented in two rounds (50bp each) with the first round coming into effect on 15 April and the second on 15 May. After the cut, the RRR at these small institutions will fall to 6.0% (versus around 11% for big banks and 9-10.5% for medium-size banks). This RRR reduction will release a total of CNY400bn liquidity, and lower those banks' annual funding costs by about CNY6bn. In addition, PBOC also announced a reduction in the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) from 0.72% to 0.35%. That is the first excess reserve rate cut since 2008, aiming to encourage banks to reduce their excess reserves at the PBOC and expand bank lending. Note that banks' excess reserve ratio stood at 2.4% at end-2019.      

    Topic industry-news

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Potential Scenario of Special Bond Supply

    China Insight

    The Politburo Meeting on 27 March hinted at a big stimulus package ahead. The meeting stated that macro policy loosening should be stepped up to boost domestic demand and achieve the "Six Stabilities" (stable employment, trade, financial markets, investment, foreign capital, and expectations). Specifically, the central government will issue a batch of special government bonds (SGB), and the local government special bond (LGB) quota will also be enlarged. In addition, the meeting called for accelerated issuance and use of local government special bonds, speeding up the preparation and construction of large and important infrastructure projects and better implementing the reduction of taxes and administration fees. We expect the government to raise the budgetary deficit to 3.5% of GDP from the previously 3.0% and lift the tax and administration fee target to CNY2.5tn from CNY2tn realized last year. Regarding off-budget items, we expect special local government bond issuance to rise to CNY3.5tn from CNY2.15tn in 2019. Meanwhile, the statement of the PBOC 1Q meeting on the same day also put a great priority on assisting a firm recovery of the real economy and pledged to increase support to SMEs and the private sector. PBOC wants to see the loan prime rate (LPR) play a more important role in lowering real funding costs.      

    Topic industry-news

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