EPFR

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Flickers of hope for trade and Brexit deals boost risk appetite

By cameron-brandt 18 Oct 2019

Flickers of hope for trade and Brexit deals boost risk appetite The second week of October saw flows to EPFR-tracked High Yield and Emerging Markets Bond rebound, US and UK Equity Funds snap three-week outflow streaks and UK Bond Funds post their biggest inflow since June as Sino-US trade and UK-EU exit deal talks took turns for the better. Investors are also pricing in another rate cut from the US Federal reserve when it meets on the final days of the month.

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Flow of Funds Infographic

16 Oct 2019

EPFR

Quants Corner

By vikram-srimurthy 15 Oct 2019

Going A Viking The four Nordic countries in continental Europe, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland, are often viewed as a group of homogenous nations on Europe’s northern flank with a shared aversion to conflict, a taste for social democracy and robust welfare states. Investors tend to approach them as a group that offers some comparative insights and uncorrelated exposure relative to the ‘core’ European markets.

EPFR

Data Simply Scores: Enhance your SRI and ESG lenses

By cameron-brandt 15 Oct 2019

The pursuit of pure Alpha and recognition of less tangible but equally – or more -- worthy goals, is as old as recorded financial history. In its current incarnation, a financial industry tempered by the “greed is good” era is scrambling to accommodate new generations of investors who place a high premium on environmental and social goals. These investors are backing up their interest in environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues with growing amounts of money. The equity funds tracked by Informa Financial Intelligence, EPFR have posted collective net outflows of over $225 billion so far this year, with the ESG subset or socially responsible investment (SRI) mandates attracting over $35 billion in 2019.

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Trade issues, earnings and political risk reclaim center stage from central bankers in early October

By cameron-brandt 11 Oct 2019

Trade issues, earnings and political risk reclaim center stage from central bankers in early October After a quarter when both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank reversed course on the normalization of their monetary policies, the focus during the first week October shifted from central bankers to the Sino-Chinese trade war, the latest corporate earnings season and impending elections in Spain, Canada and Argentina.

EPFR

EPFR Explainer Video

09 Oct 2019

EPFR provides fund flows and asset allocation data to global financial institutions. EPFR data helps portfolio managers, asset allocators, strategists and research teams generate alpha by giving them a clear picture of where money is moving, how fund managers are investing that money, and what impact those shifts are having on geographies, sectors, industries and securities.

EPFR

Money Market Funds close books on record setting quarter

By cameron-brandt 04 Oct 2019

Money Market Funds close books on record setting quarter The third quarter ended as it began, with EPFR-tracked Equity Funds experiencing net redemptions and Bond Funds net inflows that took their year-to-date totals to -$230 billion and +$481 billion respectively, as investors continue to brace for a cyclical downturn that they have been anticipating for the better part of four years. In recent months their outlook has been shared by the world’s major central banks. Since the beginning of July the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice to sustain the current recovery and the European Central Bank, faced with a sharp slowdown in the German economy, restarted the quantitative easing program it wrapped up at the end of last year. Not surprisingly, mutual fund investors are revisiting their assumptions about yield, global economic growth and inflation. High Yield and Inflation Protected Bond Funds, which both posted collective outflows during 2Q19, saw flows rebound during the third quarter and dedicated Gold Funds recorded their biggest quarterly inflow since 2Q16. Liquidity has also assumed even greater importance: the provisional number for Money Markets Funds during 3Q19 eclipses the previous inflow record set in 4Q08 at the height of the sub-prime debt crisis.

EPFR

Quants Corner

By Mike Simcock, CEO of ClearMacro 01 Oct 2019

Guest blog – ‘Quantifying the impact of Trade War Tariffs’ This week’s Quant’s Corner is written by Mike Simcock, CEO of ClearMacro, a London-based fintech company. ClearMacro helps clients bridge the gap between systematic and discretionary investment processes by transforming raw data into investible signals, and is partnering with EPFR to stage a panel discussion on monetary and other risks to the global economy on October 9 at The Shard in London.

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German data and US politics chill appetite for equity exposure

By cameron-brandt 27 Sep 2019

German data and US politics chill appetite for equity exposure With the specter of impeachment proceedings again stalking US President Donald Trump’s presidency, continuing stress in the short-term dollar lending market and German’s economic woes fueling speculation that the Eurozone could slip in to recession, risk appetite was replaced with risk aversion in late September. Equity Funds bore the brunt. Redemptions from US and Asia ex-Japan Equity Funds hit levels last seen in 4Q18 and 4Q16 respectively, money flowed out of Japan Equity Funds for the fourth week in a row and Europe Equity Funds posted their 36th outflow in the 38-weeks year-to-date. Balanced Funds, which can invest in both equity and fixed income assets, recorded their biggest outflow since mid-May a week after snapping a redemption streak stretching back to 2Q18. Fixed income investors also took a turn for the cautious, with Local Currency Emerging Markets Bond Funds posting outflows, fresh commitments to High Yield Bond Funds falling to a 19th of the previous week’s total and redemptions from Bank Loan Funds climbing to a five-week high. Bond Funds with investment grade mandates, meanwhile, attracted over $8 billion. Overall, the week ending September 25 saw EPFR-tracked Equity Funds post a collective net outflow of $22 billion. Investors also pulled $2 billion out of Balanced Funds while steering $975 million into Alternative Funds, $9.2 billion into Bond Funds and $35 billion into Money Market Funds.

EPFR

Quants Corner

24 Sep 2019

The Global oil market: winners and losers, following the Saudi facility attack – a fund flow perspective During the first quarter of this year officials from Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main stock exchange, told Reuters that they were anticipating significant flows into the kingdom’s equity markets. The reason for their optimism was Saudi Arabia’s promotion from frontier to emerging markets status, with the attendant expected inclusion of Saudi stocks in major emerging market benchmarks.

EPFR

US Equity and High Yield Bond Funds in the money as Fed cuts rates for the second time in a row

By cameron-brandt 20 Sep 2019

US Equity and High Yield Bond Funds in the money as Fed cuts rates for the second time in a row The second consecutive 0.25% rate cut that followed the Federal Reserve’s mid-September policy meeting triggered a fresh volley of disapproving tweets from US President Donald Trump. But flows into US Equity Funds jumped to a 26-week high and all EPFR-tracked Equity Funds recorded their biggest collective inflow since late 1Q18 as investors began to feel fresh pangs of yield hunger. In addition, High Yield Bond Funds attracted over $3 billion for the second straight week, Alternative Funds pulled in another $1.7 billion, Emerging Markets Equity Funds saw a 21-week redemption streak come to an end and Emerging Markets Bond Funds posted their fourth straight inflow.

EPFR

Quants Corner

By vikram-srimurthy 18 Sep 2019

This May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India returned to office with an increased majority in parliament. In this week’s Quants Corner post, we follow the rise of Modi through the lens of EPFR’s fund flows and look at the response of our quantitative EM rankings to several major ‘events’ during Modi’s time in office.

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Outflows the rule for Europe Funds ahead of ECB’s decision to restart quantitative easing

By cameron-brandt 13 Sep 2019

Outflows the rule for Europe Funds ahead of ECB’s decision to restart quantitative easing With speculation about the measures the European Central Bank (ECB) would take at its September policy meeting ranging widely, EPFR-tracked Europe Equity, Bond and Money Market Funds all experienced net redemptions during the week ending Sept. 11. For Europe Equity Funds it was 11th consecutive outflow and 35th in the 37 weeks year-to-date while Europe Bond Funds saw their longest inflow streak on record come to an end.

EPFR

Quants Corner

11 Sep 2019

Sino-US trade tensions and slower growth in the world’s second largest economy have dominated the headlines for much of this year. But, behind the sound and fury, many mutual fund managers have – with varying degrees of enthusiasm – been increasing their fund’s exposure to China.

EPFR

EPFR-tracked Bond Funds remain on track for new inflow record

By cameron-brandt 06 Sep 2019

EPFR-tracked Bond Funds remain on track for new inflow record The week ending September 4 saw year-to-date flows into all EPFR-tracked Bond Funds climb past the $450 billion level as they continue to make a run at the full year inflow record that they set in 2017. These robust inflows have occurred despite Equity Funds collectively outperforming Bond Funds by a 2-to-1 margin so far this year, with safety-conscious investors putting more stock in further central bank easing that they do in an early end to global trade tensions.