Financial Intelligence is part of the Informa Intelligence Division of Informa PLC
This is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 8860726.
FX Fundamentals Manager, Europe
UK
28+ years of experience
Having studied law at Manchester University, Tony worked as a successful interbank FX dealer and options trader at ANZ Investment Bank and Sakura Bank for five years.
He joined us in 2004 and manages the market-leading G10 FX fundamentals product, as well as increasingly focusing on the Yuan and Chinese markets.
Tony ensures IGM retains its position as the number one independent firm for intraday FX analysis, inspiring market debate.
He runs IGM’s long-term FX forecasting, participating in and regularly winning FX Week and Reuters polls.
He also runs the successful trade ideas product, correctly predicting Gbp’s slide post Brexit and making big profits in a number of short Gbp plays.
Tony participates in Thomson Reuters polls on other topics such as central bank outlooks and growth and inflation forecasts, appears regularly on DukascopyTV and has been quoted on the BBC, Guardian and Telegraph websites.
IGM Credit
By Tony Nyman 17 Oct 2022
EUR/USD - Hit a fresh range and multi-year low of 0.9536 on Sep 28. A decent rebound since, as markets are pricing the possibility of another 75BPs hike interest rates later this month and the terminal rate call is being lifted in some quarters to around 3% by end-Q1 2023 from current 1.25%
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 01 Dec 2020
In our Q4 version of Oct 5, we concluded that 15-20 years ago, it was a good bet to short the DOLLAR. More recently, we have seen strength. We continued Q4 seasonality this year could come second to the potentially big drivers of COVID vaccine hopes, a resilient global economy, the Biden lead and Brexit, but BEARS might want to look at a LONG AUD/USD (but of course the RBA could well cut rates before the year is out). The last 20 years has seen an ave of +0.9% during Q4 and current standing is +2.5%. We added USD BULLS might consider a LONG USD/NOK. An ave win of +1.4% since 2000. A very short NOK market though has rocketed in this risk-on environment and the less said about the -5.0% USD/NOK losses the better! So far in the month's early exchanges, the USD is mostly slightly lower, from -0.03% AUD through to -0.3% CHF and EUR and -0.4% SEK. Only USD win so far is the tiny +0.1% YEN. How does the big DOLLAR tend to fare generally in the run-up to year-end? Further, are there any G10s that seem to perform particularly well/badly through Dec? For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 18 Nov 2020
Markets do not tend to look much beyond a safe haven attraction as reasons for relative YEN strength. However, some independent props have been emerging lately, lending gravitas to current gains. For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 03 Nov 2020
This is no normal Nov, that's for sure, given the US election and the ongoing devastation of COVID. So far this month, the USD is very close to being a loser across the board. For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 05 Oct 2020
A lot seems to be riding on the final quarter of the year. This report considers how well the G10s performed in the last quarter in previous years, with a particular focus on the USD. For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 31 Aug 2020
We've described September as a month of extremes previously. It is traditionally a special month in FX markets. Unlike many other months, what strikes us immediately about this one is that the USD tends to move broadly, with little middle ground. How about the rest of the G10, does there tend to be any standout winners or losers in the last month of Q3? For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 03 Aug 2020
It's easy to assume August will be quiet given summer holidays impaired trade in the Northern Hemisphere, but that of course can bring thinner trade, which in turn can exacerbate moves and direction. So, what is the reality? How does the Dollar tend to perform during the month and are there any G10s that seem to perform particularly well/badly through August? For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 05 Jul 2020
So far in 2020, the USD has largely been a winner. However, how does the USD tend to fare generally in the first month of H2? Further, are there any G10s that seem to perform particularly well/badly through July? For more read our FX Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 22 Jun 2020
Recalling our FX Seasonality Viewpoint published at the start of the month. From the trends of the last 15 years, we wrote that we could see the USD can be a broad loser in June. We noted that among those beneficiaries can be the commodity bloc, including the AUD. To date, this is just how it has panned out. For more read our EM Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 18 May 2020
Initiated on May 1, we stay short GBP/USD from 1.2525 on a Seasonality in May basis. Recently, we also initiated a long USD/CNH at 7.1300 for a move on 7.2500 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, our latest report looks at other firms’ recommendations. For more read our FX Trade of The Week Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 12 May 2020
We questioned recently whether Fed negative rates speculation will weigh on the US Dollar and prevent the DXY from reclaiming the 100.00-plus handle? Well, the latest Fed comments indicate there could well be some push-back against the controversial subject matter. Our compilation of major bank views also skews towards this being unlikely. Looking ahead, we suggest keeping an eye on upcoming speeches and possible comments on the subject from other Fed members and in particular, when Fed Chairman Powell speaks on Wednesday. For more read our Viewpoint Blog >
Topic Industry News
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 06 Feb 2019
A decent start to the year as IGM win latest one and three-month G10 currency forecast tables this week in FX Week's FX polls of 30-plus leading firms.
IGM FX and Rates
By Tony Nyman 28 Feb 2017
IGM won the Thomson Reuters Awards for Forecasting EUR/USD in 2016, whilst finishing a clear second overall in the FX Majors polls that over 100 of the biggest banks, financial firms contribute to. We think it's worth reminding ourselves the thinking behind these estimates and whether anything much changes into 2017.
