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About Tim

China

+24 year(s) experience

Tim Cheung, Head of China products, IGM, headshot
Tim Cheung heads up IGM’s China products, keeping screens updated with the latest trading strategies, often adopted by hedge funds and institutional investors.

Since 2000, he has been working with IGM to develop a range of Chinese language products for mainland China and Hong Kong. In his current role, he’s responsible for all the China content including IGM's Chinese language services. He provides key insight on the CNH/CNY markets as well as flow commentary on the emerging Asian FX market and Asian credit.

Tim joined us in Hong Kong in 1995 from MMS International. Before that he worked in the banking sector.

Tim has a bachelor’s degree in economics from Wolverhampton University.

Analyst Articles

Articles by Tim

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: New LPR Mechanism is Bullish For Government Bonds

    By Tim Cheung 23 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0823

    PBOC finally officially announced on 17th of August interest rate reform using the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) as a benchmark for new loans. As per the announcement, eighteen banks are selected as LPR quoting members and each of them are required to submit one LPR quote for a 1-year period and one for a 5-year period to the National Interbank Funding Centre (NIFC) on the 20th of each month.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: What Tactics Are Good in Dealing With Ongoing RMB Depreciation

    By Tim Cheung 20 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0820

    On 13th August New York time, the US Trade Representative's Office announced delaying till 15th December the 10% tariffs on about half of the USD300bn of Chinese goods, that were originally scheduled to come into effect 1 September. Though the tariff delay should increase Beijing's interest in sending a delegation to Washington for another round of trade talks in September, we do not think a trade deal will be reached anytime soon. We reiterate our view that China is adopting "better-late-than-early" strategy and will continue to let the trade talks drag on till at least year 2020.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: RMB Depreciation is Needed as Long as Trade Talks Drag on

    By Tim Cheung 13 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0813

    Asian markets were shocked by Trump's announcement of the imposition of 10% tariff on the remaining USD300bn of Chinese starting, effective 1st September. The announcement came totally unexpectedly as nobody would think in advance that the face-to-face meeting between the US and Chinese trade negotiators would end up with further widening, instead of narrowing, of the gap between two countries.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Statement of Politburo Meeting Sounds Bullish For Bonds

    By Tim Cheung 06 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0806

    President Xi hosted the regular Politburo meeting on 1H 2019 economic performance on 30 July. The policy statement pointed out increasing downward pressure faced by the economy in 2H19. Though the statement called for policy adjustments to ensure growth stability, it ruled out an immediate need for aggressive easing.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    EM Asia Insight: Carry trades to turn popular again, long INR/CNH at dips favoured

    By Tim Cheung 30 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0730

    TThe 2-day FOMC meeting will kick off soon after this article is published and the firm market consensus as of now is that the Fed will cut Fed funds rate by at least 25bp at the meeting. A kick-off of the Fed easing cycle would (1) keep the USD and core rates pinned down, which should pave the way for Asian FX appreciation against the USD (chart 1); and (2) should be conducive for EM carry trades again (Chart 2).

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: PBOC May Lower SLF And MLF Rates Rather Than The Benchmarks

    By Tim Cheung 23 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0723

    Taking a look at June activity data, we note that aggregate fixed asset investment (FAI) year-to-date was still capped below 6% y/y (chart 1), suggesting the Chinese economy will likely remain sluggish in Q3.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Government May Re-focus on Deleveraging Later This Year?

    By Tim Cheung 16 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0716

    PBOC's takeover of Baoshang Bank for one year due to serious credit risk in May and its provision of credit enhancement to a NCD issue by Bank of Jinzhou in June, suggest some Chinese small banks are suffering a deterioration of their balance sheet quality. The main reason for that, we think, is a growing difficulty of small banks' debtors to meet their debt obligations.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: What Will Happen to Major Chinese Assets Post G20?

    By Tim Cheung 09 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0709

    The outcome of the meeting between Trump and Xi at the recent G20 summit was mostly as expected, with a delay in pending US tariff increases agreed while negotiations continue. No surprising progress was announced on the main issues in the dispute, except partial easing of US restrictions on exports to Huawei.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Re-leveraging Already Kicks-Off, Good For LGFVs

    By Tim Cheung 02 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0702

    The State Council in early-June released a document allowing local government special bonds to be used as project capital for infrastructure projects, and also encourages financial institutions to support those projects (e.g. through bank loans). Amid the ongoing US-China trade war, we believe these measures demonstrate Beijing's incremental efforts to counter downside risks, by supporting infrastructure investment in the coming months.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Foreigners Poured Money Into Chinese Bonds Last Month

    By Tim Cheung 25 Jun 2019

    China Insight 0625

    The activity data for May suggests China's growth is slowing down again. This was not driven by direct effects from the trade war via weaker exports. On the contrary, export growth held up at a decent level in May and beat market expectations by a significant margin.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Impact of Baoshang Takeover on The Onshore Debt Market

    By Tim Cheung 18 Jun 2019

    China Insight 0618

    On 24 May, PBOC and CBIRC jointly announced to take over Baoshang Bank for one year due to serious credit risk. As far as we are aware, Baoshang Bank already showed multiple red flags on credit risk in 2017, with 28.8% y/y asset growth, around 30% of assets in receivable investments, 46% of loans in unsecured lending, and a decline of total CAR to 9.3% in the same year (vs the minimum requirement of 10.5% in the same year). We are surprised that the regulators did not step in until it was confirmed that 6 out of Baoshang's top 10 debtors had already defaulted on their debt obligations.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: White Paper Could Kick-Off Long March

    By Tim Cheung 11 Jun 2019

    China Insight 0611

    We saw a further escalation of the US-China trade war during the last week of May. After hinting at a potential restriction of rare earth exports to the US and announcing a plan to list out unreliable foreign companies, Beijing released a white paper putting all the blame on the US for the collapse of the trade talks and stressing China will not make any concessions to the US on the principal issues.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: RMB Depreciation Not Permitted as Yet

    By Tim Cheung 04 Jun 2019

    China Insight 0604

    Chinese policymakers since the middle of May have started to express their intention to safeguard the currency against speculative attacks, given growing concerns in the market over an imminent depreciation of the RMB as a result of escalating US-China trade tensions.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Beijing Will Likely Let CNY Depreciate Without Fear

    By Tim Cheung 28 May 2019

    China Insight 0528

    EM investors are again caught in a trade war waiting game. The overall effect of the US-China failure to reach a trade deal on EM Asia FX is negative. Needless to say, CNY is in the eye of the storm, which has lost 1.3% since the US extra tariffs on the USD200bn of Chinese goods that came into effect on 10 May.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Watch PBOC Policy U-turn as Trade War Intensifies

    By Tim Cheung 21 May 2019

    China Insight 0520

    China has been in the spotlight year to date, largely in regard to the pick-up in credit stimulus and growth data in recent months. Given the improving growth momentum in Q1 and rising inflation pressure, the signals given by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in April reflected policymakers' growing bias for a less accommodative monetary policy stance in H2. However, the drastic turnaround of trade negotiations in the week ending 12 May was totally out of expectations. This, we think, will inevitably hurt investor sentiment and business confidence, as the markets had been expecting a trade deal until the 11th round of the US-China trade talks ended up with no agreement but an increase in tariffs.

    Topic Industry News