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About Tim

China

+24 year(s) experience

Tim Cheung, Head of China products, IGM, headshot
Tim Cheung heads up IGM’s China products, keeping screens updated with the latest trading strategies, often adopted by hedge funds and institutional investors.

Since 2000, he has been working with IGM to develop a range of Chinese language products for mainland China and Hong Kong. In his current role, he’s responsible for all the China content including IGM's Chinese language services. He provides key insight on the CNH/CNY markets as well as flow commentary on the emerging Asian FX market and Asian credit.

Tim joined us in Hong Kong in 1995 from MMS International. Before that he worked in the banking sector.

Tim has a bachelor’s degree in economics from Wolverhampton University.

Analyst Articles

Articles by Tim

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: The US May Consider Limiting Investments in China

    By Tim Cheung 15 Oct 2019

    China Insight 1015

    A couple of negative headlines came out on 8 October before the 13th round of US-China trade talks starts. The US blacklisted 28 Chinese entities and government agencies over human rights violations and repression in Xinjiang; White House has started looking to consider limits on the US pension investments in Chinese equities;

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: We Are Just in Short-Lived Peace

    By Tim Cheung 01 Oct 2019

    China Insight 1001

    Ahead of high-level trade talks scheduled for the second week of October in Washington, there is the growing expectation that an interim or mini deal between the US and China will be reached there.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: CGB Inclusion to JPM Indices Won’t Have Much Impact on RMB FX

    By Tim Cheung 24 Sep 2019

    China Insight 0924

    JP Morgan in early-September announced that China Government Bonds (CGBs) will be included in its series of GBI-EM bond indices, starting 28 February 2020. The inclusion will take place over a 10-month period and be completed at the end of November 2020. This is another major bond index's inclusion of China, following Bloomberg Barclays'.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: RRR Cut Reinforces Our Bullish View on CGBs

    By Tim Cheung 17 Sep 2019

    China Insight 0917

    PBOC on 6 September announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all financial institutions by 50bps and a cut for some city commercial banks by an additional 100bps, effective on 16 September. As per PBOC, the RRR cut will release liquidity to the amount of CNY900bn (chart 1). The PBOC stressed that the 900 billion yuan of liquidity should enhance the source of funds for financial institutions to support financing needs of the real economy.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    Hong Kong Insight: Concerns Over Capital Flight Are Growing

    By Tim Cheung 10 Sep 2019

    China Insight 0910

    The HKMA, on 26 August, announced it had completed a review of its framework for the provision of liquidity to Authorised Institutions (AIs). A new Resolution Facility was introduced to provide for the scenario in which resolution powers under the Financial Institutions (Resolution) Ordinance (FIRO) are exercised by the Monetary Authority as the Resolution Authority. The HKMA has also taken the opportunity to communicate and restate the framework for provision of liquidity, incorporating certain refinements to the prior arrangements where appropriate, so as to foster a better understanding on the part of the market of the different facilities through which the HKMA makes temporary HKD liquidity (i.e. not in the nature of capital support) available to AIs to maintain integrity and stability of the monetary and financial systems in Hong Kong.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: RMB Depreciation Will Intensify if IEEPA Threat Materialises

    By Tim Cheung 03 Sep 2019

    China Insight 0903

    The latest escalation in US-China trade tensions has already put additional depreciation pressure on RMB FX. It is increasingly likely that our target 7.5000 will be reached as soon as autumn. If China were to offset the announced additional tariffs by the US via RMB depreciation only, we suspect USD/CNH would need to reach as high as 7.65. So far, we have merely based our analysis on what degree of RMB depreciation is needed in order to compensate for the potential loss of trade competitiveness as a result of tariffs.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: New LPR Mechanism is Bullish For Government Bonds

    By Tim Cheung 23 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0823

    PBOC finally officially announced on 17th of August interest rate reform using the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) as a benchmark for new loans. As per the announcement, eighteen banks are selected as LPR quoting members and each of them are required to submit one LPR quote for a 1-year period and one for a 5-year period to the National Interbank Funding Centre (NIFC) on the 20th of each month.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: What Tactics Are Good in Dealing With Ongoing RMB Depreciation

    By Tim Cheung 20 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0820

    On 13th August New York time, the US Trade Representative's Office announced delaying till 15th December the 10% tariffs on about half of the USD300bn of Chinese goods, that were originally scheduled to come into effect 1 September. Though the tariff delay should increase Beijing's interest in sending a delegation to Washington for another round of trade talks in September, we do not think a trade deal will be reached anytime soon. We reiterate our view that China is adopting "better-late-than-early" strategy and will continue to let the trade talks drag on till at least year 2020.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: RMB Depreciation is Needed as Long as Trade Talks Drag on

    By Tim Cheung 13 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0813

    Asian markets were shocked by Trump's announcement of the imposition of 10% tariff on the remaining USD300bn of Chinese starting, effective 1st September. The announcement came totally unexpectedly as nobody would think in advance that the face-to-face meeting between the US and Chinese trade negotiators would end up with further widening, instead of narrowing, of the gap between two countries.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Statement of Politburo Meeting Sounds Bullish For Bonds

    By Tim Cheung 06 Aug 2019

    China Insight 0806

    President Xi hosted the regular Politburo meeting on 1H 2019 economic performance on 30 July. The policy statement pointed out increasing downward pressure faced by the economy in 2H19. Though the statement called for policy adjustments to ensure growth stability, it ruled out an immediate need for aggressive easing.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    EM Asia Insight: Carry trades to turn popular again, long INR/CNH at dips favoured

    By Tim Cheung 30 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0730

    TThe 2-day FOMC meeting will kick off soon after this article is published and the firm market consensus as of now is that the Fed will cut Fed funds rate by at least 25bp at the meeting. A kick-off of the Fed easing cycle would (1) keep the USD and core rates pinned down, which should pave the way for Asian FX appreciation against the USD (chart 1); and (2) should be conducive for EM carry trades again (Chart 2).

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: PBOC May Lower SLF And MLF Rates Rather Than The Benchmarks

    By Tim Cheung 23 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0723

    Taking a look at June activity data, we note that aggregate fixed asset investment (FAI) year-to-date was still capped below 6% y/y (chart 1), suggesting the Chinese economy will likely remain sluggish in Q3.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Government May Re-focus on Deleveraging Later This Year?

    By Tim Cheung 16 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0716

    PBOC's takeover of Baoshang Bank for one year due to serious credit risk in May and its provision of credit enhancement to a NCD issue by Bank of Jinzhou in June, suggest some Chinese small banks are suffering a deterioration of their balance sheet quality. The main reason for that, we think, is a growing difficulty of small banks' debtors to meet their debt obligations.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: What Will Happen to Major Chinese Assets Post G20?

    By Tim Cheung 09 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0709

    The outcome of the meeting between Trump and Xi at the recent G20 summit was mostly as expected, with a delay in pending US tariff increases agreed while negotiations continue. No surprising progress was announced on the main issues in the dispute, except partial easing of US restrictions on exports to Huawei.

    Topic Industry News

  • IGM Credit, IGM FX and Rates

    China Insight: Re-leveraging Already Kicks-Off, Good For LGFVs

    By Tim Cheung 02 Jul 2019

    China Insight 0702

    The State Council in early-June released a document allowing local government special bonds to be used as project capital for infrastructure projects, and also encourages financial institutions to support those projects (e.g. through bank loans). Amid the ongoing US-China trade war, we believe these measures demonstrate Beijing's incremental efforts to counter downside risks, by supporting infrastructure investment in the coming months.

    Topic Industry News